Dear Mr. Prime Minister John Howard,
　　 Mrs. Jenny Shipley,
　　 Mr. Trent Lott,
　　 Mr. Denny Hastert,

Defense Minister Tang Fei said yesterday (Sept. 14, 1999) ongoing amphibious landing exercises conducted on mainland China's Zhoushan islands off eastern Zhejiang Province are directed at Taiwan. It was the first time a Taiwan official has acknowledged that Chinese military drills are targeted at the island.

To a question about China's military exercises, Tang replied: "The Guangzhou military zone does not face Taiwan. The information that we have gathered showed that the drills there are a routine annual exercise." He then added: "If you want to say that the exercises have a target, the amphibious landing exercises conducted in Zhoushan now can be considered to be of such nature."

The Zhoushan islands lie northeast of Taiwan.

Tang said that Taiwan is unlikely to be threatened in the short term but the Chinese military can be expected to make small provocative gestures in the future.

"China has many possible military strategies. For example, they could paralyze Taiwan's transportation system.

The article also emphasized China's persistence to punish Taiwan if the island takes any "dangerous steps."

"The outlook for a peaceful unification is coming close to complete ruin. Chinese people will keep their promise (to) punish Taiwan with a deadly blow if Taiwan undertakes any dangerous steps."

Taiwan's Chinese-language media said the commentary conveys a clear indication that China is stepping up its saber-rattling against Taiwan. But analysts said hope for a peaceful resolution remains since the article did not directly link Lee's new theory with a declaration for independence.

Tension in the Taiwan Strait have escalated since Lee unveiled the controversial doctrine. Despite dozens of reports by the Hong Kong media about China's military preparations for an attack on Taiwan, military experts called the articles a form of psychological warfare.

Although China has warned that it would seek to retake Taiwan at any cost if the island declares independence, local observes says an invasion is unlikely. The cost of a military campaign to take Taiwan would be more than China can afford to pay, they said.

Money makes insecurity.

PHILADELPHIA (Sept. 15, 1999) ----
A Pennsylvania company agreed to plead guilty Monday to illegally giving mainland Chinese officials technology that would help improve the accuracy of missiles similar to the United States' Patriot missiles, federal officials said. Orbit/FR, headquartered in Horsham, about 15 miles north of Philadelphia, planned to plead guilty in U.S. District Court to charges of violating the Arms Export Control Act, according to papers filed in court Monday. Orbit was fined US$600,000 and could be banned from exporting products for up to 10 years, U.S. Attorney Michael R. Stiles said. Orbit/FR, headquartered in Horshan, about 15 miles (24 Kilometers) north of Philadelphia, pleaded guilty in U.S. District Court to charges of violating the Arms Export Control Act. Orbit was fined US$600,000 and could be banned from exporting products for up to 10 years, U.S. Attorney Michael R. Stiles said.

William A. Torzolini, the company's chief financial officer, declined immediate comment until a news release could be issued. Orbit/FR was to have been paid US$ 1 million for the information by the Chinese North Industries Corp., a major military systems manufacturer for the Chinese army. No money changed hands. The company is owned primarily by Orbit-Alchut Technologies Ltd., an Israeli company. The technology was originally developed for the Israeli armed forces, Stiles said.

WASHINGTON, Sept. 15 ---
The United States has new evidence that China may have transferred medium-range missiles to Pakistan. The discovery raises the possibility of tough sanctions against China and adds a potential complication to a relationship that seemed headed for recovery after a difficult period.

State Department spokesman James Foley called the possible transfer of M-11 missiles, with a range of about 250 miles (402 Kilometers), a matter of "grave national security importance" to the United States.

A national intelligence estimate concluded that the transfer took place, but Foley said Tuesday that policy and legal determinations have yet to be made. An intelligence judgement is not a sufficient basis for applying technology-transfer sanctions, Foley said.

"It depends to a large extent on the nature of the evidence underlying that judgment, and before the law can be triggered, all the various elements of the missile sanctions law must be satisfied," he said.

He added: "If we believe that the case can be made within the law on such a violation, we will impose sanctions."

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi said he was aware of the report and considered it an old allegation.

"This issue has lasted for a long time, and I think it already has been put to an end," Sun said. "I think the relevant report is playing the same old tune, and it can only further undermine Chinese-U.S. bilateral relations, which already have been damaged."

The report was quietly declassified last Thursday, two days before President Bill Clinton and Chinese President Jiang Zemin met in New Zealand amid predictions by both sides that the two governments would overcome prickly disputes that soured relations in recent months.

One U.S. official said sanctions against China could add up to "big bucks."

Pakistan also would be subject to sanctions, but it would not be materially affected because the country already is under penalty because of violations covered by separate legislation.

The sanctions are part of the U.S. effort to deter the transfer of missiles and missile technology. The law under which the sanctions would be applied uses standards outlined in the Missile Technology Control Regime, an international anti-missile proliferation effort.

The penalties would deny high-technology equipment to the Chinese organization involved in the transfer. They also would extend to activities of the Chinese government relating to development of MTCR missiles or MTCR components or affecting production of electronic and space systems or equipment and military aircraft.

In Taiwan, but instead of reaction with fear, most Taiwanese were nonchalant about the threat that they no longer take seriously. Many Taiwanese believe the United States will protect the island and some doubt China's military is capable of an attack.

Communist China back the reasons to attack Taiwan that Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui, who asserted two months ago that Taiwan and China should be political equals, dealing with each other on a "special state-to-state" basis in which Taiwanese people support this reality since a civil war split the two sides in1949.

Australia troop is the major peacefully source of Southeast-Asia regional stability.

However, United Nations, must focus on the sole precondition for the force should be that it is strong and effective enough to deal with the shocking destruction on the ground and grave humanitarian crisis and immediately restore peace and stability.

Indonesia should not place any condition on the multinational force. It is the responsibility of the international community to ensure that the will of the East Timorese people will be respected without any additional suffering.

It is a good idea that the security council decided to give its blessing to a multinational force because its troops are paid for by their own governments, and it can deploy rapidly.

The peace of Taiwan-strait is building Taiwan its own deterrent capabilities.

Taiwan is not asking other countries to fight on its behalf but merely asking friendly nations, in particular, the United States, to be emphatic with and supportive of Taiwan building its own defense capability.

On the other hand; without Taiwan's own credible deterrence, the U.S. military may well have to be involved in the Taiwan Strait again. China's military might should not be underestimated nor exaggerated.

At the same time, ignoring the fact the China is bullying its neighbors would be an outright mistake. China may provoke war over Taiwan. Taiwan cannot be abandoned nor its national interests sacrificed, for doing so would only spell trouble across the Taiwan Strait. Giving the complexity and diversity of the issues and policy options, only a strategy that rights the non-equilibrium in the strait and combines elements of deterrence can give the region substantive peace.