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N Korea prepared to `go nuclear'

STANDOFF: Sources in Japan said the communist dictatorship might declare itself a nuclear state in September unless the US starts responding to Pyongyang's demands

REUTERS , TOKYO

North Korea is prepared to declare itself a nuclear state unless the US responds positively to its proposals for resolving a row over Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions by Sept. 9 -- the anniversary of the communist country's founding, diplomatic sources in Tokyo said.

One source with close ties to Pyongyang said that the North was ready to declare itself officially a member of the nuclear club, opening the way for possible nuclear tests and more weapons.

"North Korea will move on to possess nuclear weapons and declare itself a nuclear state if the United States fails to respond to its proposals before September 9," he said.

Pyongyang has said it has finished reprocessing spent nuclear fuel that could allow it to make about a half a dozen atomic bombs, but doubts persist about the accuracy of its claims.

Another source, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said China feared that a muted response from the US or fruitless talks could prompt North Korea to declare itself a nuclear state.

"If the United States refused to strike a deal in one way or another, North Korea could go nuclear," the source said.

"This is what China worries about the most, and China as a mediator will lose face," he added.

Cautious hopes of a breakthrough in the nine-month-old crisis over North Korea's nuclear arms program have risen since China sent an envoy to Pyongyang earlier this month, apparently to suggest a compromise format for negotiations.

North Korea has said the crisis can only be defused by bilateral talks with the US and a non-aggression treaty between the two.

Washington now says it is open to three-way talks that would include China as a first step to broader multilateral discussions including Japan and South Korea.

And while US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage has ruled out a non-aggression pact, he has said Washington could provide a security guarantee by exchanging letters or official statements if Pyongyang dismantled its nuclear arms programs.

North Korea thinks declaring itself a nuclear power would allow it to negotiate from a position of strength, but is willing to abandon its atomic program if it gets something substantial in return, the first Pyongyang-linked source said.

"If North Korea were to possess nuclear weapons, that would put the United States in a weaker and disadvantageous position in future negotiations," the source said.

A third diplomatic source in Tokyo said North Korean representatives at the UN have had frequent contact with US counterparts but were puzzled by vague responses.

"Pyongyang has been at a loss because the United States does not send any clear signals that it really wants to have a dialogue," the source said.

The US said on Tuesday it was considering fresh talks with North Korea and China on Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions if they were immediately followed by broader discussions.

But the diplomatic sources in Tokyo said that unless the fresh round of three-way talks helped the US and North Korea build "mutual trust," Pyongyang would not accept the five-nation forum which would include Japan and South Korea.

"If North Korea failed to secure trust in the United States after the three-way talks, it would never agree to five-nation talks," the first source said. "Everything hinges on the next round of three-way talks."

The North Korean nuclear crisis erupted last October when US officials said Pyongyang had admitted to a clandestine atomic weapons program, which Washington fears could threaten its allies in the region and destabilize Northeast Asia.

Avoiding the lure of China

Recent media reports have speculated that President Chen Shui-bian will soon announce a plan to allow Taiwanese businesses operating in China to be listed on the stock market. Minister of Finance Lin Chuan denied the reports on Tuesday, saying that the matter involves a vast range of issues. The government, he said, is still studying the proposal and no final decision has been made.

The KMT was the first one to weigh in on the issue, saying that allowing Taiwanese businesses in China to be listed here was already part of the party's economic and trade policies and the platform of the KMT-PFP alliance. The KMT ridiculed the DPP's ambivalence about cross-strait economic and trade policy and compared it to what KMT said was its early formulation of policy guidelines that will provide direct fundraising channels for Taiwanese businesses in China, including stock market listings and Taiwan depository receipts.

The KMT is once again living up to its name: the Kuomingtang of China. "China" was taken out of its English name in order to show that the party has been localized, but the KMT still blows bubbles for China. Ever since losing power, the KMT has ganged up with the pro-unification propaganda machine and hyped China's markets relentlessly, as if China is a panacea for all of Taiwan's woes. This has been done to achieve its goal of using business to pressure the government and using China to pressure Taiwan.

As for the nation's diplomatic predicament, the KMT advocates acceptance of Beijing's "one China" principle -- as if China will give up its attempts to isolate Taiwan diplomatically once Taipei accepts the principle, as if Taiwanese would be able to sleep easily from then on and other countries would spontaneously establish diplomatic relations with Taipei. The KMT advocates marching west into China, including direct links. Now they want Taiwanese businesses based in China to get listed in Taiwan. They are not only encouraging capitalists to move money to China, but also want to allow them to scrape away the money of small-time pop-and-mom investors and take it to China.

Once the KMT wanted to re-conquer China. Now it wants to use Taiwan's power to make China strong. Of course, the party leaders will not admit it, so they hype up China's political and economic power.

The pro-unification forces represented by the KMT have always attacked the DPP for its suspicions about China, saying they are driven by ideology. But the pro-unification camp's superstitious obsession with China's power is so far above ideology that it has become a fanatical religion.

Even under the transparent political and economic environments of Taiwan and Western countries, the financial structures of listed companies are not easy to monitor. Major shareholders of listed companies frequently hype information and exploit investors. Given China's opaque environment, the situation is much worse. Taiwan's authorities cannot reach the Taiwanese businesses operating in China. Beijing will not allow Taipei to monitor them. Under these circumstances, the lack of transparency in China will only encourage unscrupulous businesspeople and pro-unification forces to join hands to manipulate the market.

If even the DPP thinks the China fever is a vote winner, then why should the electorate cast their votes for a party that changes its position for the sake of elections instead of voting for the KMT, which has never lost its love for China.

The government should not get caught up in the myth of China's great market and economic opportunities. It should have confidence in the rational forces of its people. After all, not everyone in Taiwan is a businessperson and not everyone believes in China's power. The government must stand firm and show confidence in formulating policies for Taiwan's political and economic lifelines.

Chen planning official trip abroad

WELL-TRAVELED PAIR: During a press conference to welcome home his wife from her trip to Europe, the president said he was planning his own journey

CNA , TAIPEI

President Chen Shui-bian confirmed yesterday that he will make an official visit abroad later this year.

At a news conference held at Chiang Kai-shek International Airport following first lady Wu Shu-chen's return from a nine-day European tour to Germany and the Vatican, Chen confirmed media reports that he would make a trip but would not say to where.

"Wu is unable to stand on her feet, but she has completed the long-distance diplomatic tour with her strong will and passion," Chen said, adding that he was moved when the Ciampino military airport in Rome hoisted the ROC national flag to welcome Wu last Sunday for a visit to the Vatican -- Taiwan's only diplomatic ally in Europe.

Chen said that even though China has spared no effort to suppress Taiwan's presence in the international community, the people of Taiwan will not be daunted by such challenges.

Following Wu's two-leg European tour, Chen said his administration will launch many more diplomatic drives in the coming months.

Next month, he said, Vice President Annette Lu will travel to Paraguay to attend the inauguration of its new president on behalf of himself and the government. Lu will visit several other countries and will make transit stops in some major US cities during the trip, he said.

In late August, Chen went on, a summit meeting between Taiwan and its Central American allies will be held in Taipei.

In an interview with international media earlier this month, President Chen Shui-bian poured cold water on direct-link advocates by emphasizing that "Taiwan cannot have direct links for the sake of direct links." Chen said that if China insists on Tai-wan's unilateral acceptance of the "one China" principle as the prerequisite for the opening of direct links, "then we don't want direct links."

Chen's statement was a timely reminder to whose who have put individual or economic interests above national interests by asking the government to speed up the opening of the direct links.

What Chen emphasized in the interview was the need to educate the public about how deceitful China is about the cross-strait relationship. While using economic incentives to try to get the business community to pressure the Chen administration about economic opening, Beijing has also accelerated its deployment of missiles aimed directly at Taiwan.

According to media reports, the US Department of Defense is going to release its annual defense report on the People Liberation Army (PLA). The lastest report notes that China now has about 450 CSS-7 and CSS-6 missiles across the Taiwan Strait from Taiwan. The figure represents an increase of 50missiles over the 400 mentioned in last year's report.

The report also says that China recently conducted two test flights of its new short-range missile, known as the CSS-7. The CSS-7 is one of two short-range missiles being deployed in large numbers within striking distance of Taiwan, in a buildup that the Pentagon has called destabilizing. Therefore, China's military build-up cannot be overlooked.

The Chinese leadership has also tried to sabotage Chen's leadership by allying itself with the pro-unification forces. By taking advantage of the lack of domestic consensus in this country regarding cross-strait policy, Beijing could easily portray Chen as a troublemaker who abuses economic leverage and regional prosperity for the sake of politics.

Since most people overlook the potential danger embedded in China's growing military capability, using economic openness to cover its own military ambition represents the core of Beijing's policy toward Taiwan. How could outsiders expect Taiwan to make unilateral concessions to a country that has not renounced the use of force against it? Shouldn't national security be considered a key element when it comes to the question of opening direct links?

For Chen to be credited with the opening of cross-strait direct links would be a huge boost to the DPP government's electoral momentum, and so it is clearly not in Beijing's interest. Hence, Beijing's strategy is primarily aimed at downgrading Chen's popularity and blaming all the faults for cross-strait deadlock on his government.

But Chen has naysayed the possibility of opening direct links by the end of his first term largely because China's passive response to Taipei's moderate efforts to pursue cross-strait normalization and its continued threat to Tai-wan's security. This is a smart move in terms of shouldering domestic pressure and refraining from making excessive concession to his counterparts. It also provides a clearer picture of the status quo of the cross-strait standoff.

When Chen reiterated that he would never accept Beijing's insistence that he embrace its "one China" principle in order to realize direct flights, he pointed out the reason behind the current cross-strait stalemate. That is, Beijing should bear all the res-ponsibility for hurting the feelings of 23 million people on Taiwan through military force. Most importantly, Taiwan should never sacrifice its own national interests by opening direct links with China simply for the sake of opening direct links.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair appealed yesterday for quick progress toward greater democracy in Hong Kong after mass protests and stressed the need for stability in one of the world's top financial centers.

Blair, at the end of a Far East tour, cut short his visit to the former British colony as a powerful typhoon approached.

But he is flying into a raging political storm back home over the suicide of a weapons expert at the centre of a row over Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.

Blair said Britain was committed to full elections in Hong Kong, which has been rocked in recent weeks by mass protests against the China-backed government and a planned anti-subversion bill.

Earlier, Blair discussed the bill with embattled Hong Kong leader Tung Chee-hwa at the mansion of former British governors and said he believed Hong Kong and China were committed to resolving the territory's biggest political crisis in years.

"Our position has consistently been that we hope that Hong Kong will make early progress towards the Basic Law's ultimate aim of election of the chief executive and all members of the legislature council by universal suffrage," Blair said in a luncheon speech, referring to Hong Kong's constitution.

"Hong Kong, if it handles the next few years well, can also be an example of how political progress can be made without damaging essential stability," he said.

He set out on his Asian trip eager to tackle the North Korean nuclear crisis, meet China's new leaders and build trade ties in the Asia-Pacific.

In his speech yesterday, Blair stressed the need to fight international terrorism and weapons of mass destruction and reaffirmed a commitment to rebuilding Iraq.

"This is the message from Washington, it is the view of Tokyo, it is confirmed by Seoul and underlined by Beijing," he said, looking worn out as he delivered the speech without his customary energy.

TERRITORY IN CRISIS: Influential figures in both Hong Kong and China have suggested that democracy is the only way to solve the former colony's growing problems

"Universal suffrage [to elect] the chief executive is clearly the voice of the people taking to the streets on July 1."－Tsang Yok-sing, chairman of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong

A leading Chinese official has indicated that political reforms are likely in Hong Kong while a top territory legislator said there was no avoiding universal suffrage, reports said yesterday.

"There will be economic, political reforms and other reforms to improve the livelihood of people," State Councillor Tang Jiaxuan said on the sidelines of the Communist Youth League's 15th national congress.

Tang, in charge of Hong Kong affairs, did not elaborate on what specific reforms he was referring to, the South China Morning Post said.

His comments were the first indication from Beijing that embattled Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa may speed up the political reform process after the recent resignations of two key ministers.

In an interview with the Hong Kong edition of the China Daily, Tsang Yok-sing, chairman of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong, said choosing the chief executive by universal suffrage was the way forward.

"Universal suffrage [to elect] the chief executive is clearly the voice of the people taking to the streets on July 1," said Tsang, leader of the largest pro-China party in Hong Kong.

"To move ahead with the times, political parties have to consider this, the legislature has to consider this and the government also has to consider this," he said.

Tung, hand-picked by Beijing, is under intense pressure after more than 500,000 Hong Kong citizens took to the streets on July 1 demanding the shelving of a controversial subversion bill and calling for his resignation.

He travelled to Beijing on Saturday for a dressing down by China's top leaders who are concerned about social stability in Hong Kong, although Tung said they threw their support behind him.

"If the SAR government or even central government adopts a resistant attitude toward universal suffrage of the chief executive, it would only help the opposition to rally more people because this subject has the support of the citizens," he said.