`One country, two systems' is a fraud

 

By Li Thian-hok

 

On July 1 over 500,000 people took to the streets of Hong Kong to demonstrate peacefully against Act 23 of the Basic Law, the anti-subversion bill which would infringe on their basic freedoms. This outpouring of discontent forced Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa to first propose diluting the most objectionable features of the bill and then to postpone the deadline for the legislation after he lost the support of the majority in the Legislative Council. Two key members of his Cabinet, security secretary Regina Ip and financial secretary Anthony Leung resigned soon after.

 

On July 19 Tung made a one-day trip to Beijing to confer with China's top leaders. Chinese President Hu Jintao said Beijing was against "foreign forces" interfering in the internal affairs of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR). Hu pledged full support for Tung, praising him for working "with a lofty sense of mission and responsibility" and making important contributions to the territory's prosperity and stability. Premier Wen Jiabao said the "one country, two sys-tems" policy had a "strong vitality and could not be shaken by any forces."

 

Beijing is adamant that Article 23 will have to be passed at some point, as required under the Basic Law, the mini-constitution put in place when Hong Kong reverted to Chinese rule. The Chinese leaders were silent, however, about the demands for direct election of the chief executive in 2007, universal suffrage and direct election of the full legislature by 2008, political reforms which are all also stipulated in the Basic Law.

 

There are a couple of reasons behind the tough stance of the Hu-Wen team.

 

First, to accede to Hong Kong's defiance of Beijing's will is to create a dangerous precedent for the restless Chinese population which is plagued by rural poverty, official corruption and high unemployment. Beijing's foremost concern is stability, ie, the monopoly of power by the Chinese Communist Party.

 

Second, the push for Article 23 reportedly originated with former president Jiang Zemin, who is eager to see Falun Gong outlawed in the territory. Hu and Wen are still struggling to consolidate their power base vis-a-vis the hard-nosed Jiang and his cohorts. Hu's team simply cannot appear weak in comparison.

 

While British Prime Minister Tony Blair and US Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly have expressed hope for democratic reform in Hong Kong, the sad fact is neither the US nor the UK is in any position to offer anything more than such verbal moral support. Unfortunately for the people of Hong Kong, freedom is virtually impossible to retrieve once it is lost.

 

China promised the people of Hong Kong 50 years of autonomy and democracy. In just six years, the territory has lost its judicial independence and now faces severe erosion of the freedom of the press, freedom of speech and freedom of assembly. And the promised democratic reforms are nowhere in sight. The "one country, two systems" model has clearly been exposed as a crude fraud.

 

Nevertheless, this fact has not stopped Beijing from trying to lure the mercantile Taiwanese people with the discredited "one country, two systems" model to unify with China. Wang Zaixi, deputy director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of China's State Council, defended the model as the "correct formula to reunite with Taiwan" while offering an improvement. "For instance, Taiwan may keep its own army and the central government would not send a single soldier there," the Xinhua news agency quoted Wang as saying in a recent report.

 

The problem with this ploy is that it has been used before. In 1984 Beijing's negotiators promised Hong Kong the very same thing. The following year, Deng Xiaoping summarily abrogated the agreement. Are the Taiwanese as gullible as Beijing appears to think they are?

 

On July 18 Wang also offered to negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA) with Taiwan, in order to boost bilateral economic ties. Economic relations between China and Taiwan have already grown by leaps and bounds over the past two decades. Further economic integration with China will accelerate the hollowing out of Taiwan's economy. An FTA with China would add pressure for direct transportation across the Taiwan Strait, which will impair Taiwan's national security.

 

Since Tung became chief executive in 1997, Hong Kong's economy has suffered two recessions. Unemployment stands at 8.3 percent. Property prices have plunged by 60 percent. Are the Taiwanese obtuse enough to follow in Hong Kong's footsteps?

 

Next year's presidential election will determine not just which political party will take power, it will also decide whether Taiwan can continue to survive as a sovereign and democratic nation. The experience of Hong Kong hopefully will make the Taiwanese appreciate and value their freedom and prompt them to make the right choice accordingly.

 

Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania.

 

 

Is Chinese optimism misplaced?

 

By Sushil Seth

 

China is a model success story of recent times. This, at least, is the dominant view. Some commentators even believe that it will be the power-house of the global economy in the years to come. Obviously, there is much hype in this. But it is not considered polite to spoil a good yarn. At the same time, it is dangerous to perpetuate a myth.

 

Take the economy, for instance. Despite China's impressive growth rate over the past 20 years (even though statistics in this regard are dubious at best), it is a very uneven picture. A significant proportion of China's GDP comprises goods produced by state enterprises with very little consumer demand. It is reminiscent of the Soviet era when production targets were met, whether or not there was a market for the goods produced.

 

China is pruning inefficient state industrial enterprises. But it has to reckon with the social consequences of large scale unemployment. The state banks are, therefore, encouraged to keep lending to these enterprises, which is compounding an already difficult bad-loan situation. By official estimates, China's state banks have 25 percent non-performing loans. Unofficial estimates go as high as 50 to 60 percent. If China were a corporation, it would be in liquidation. But, with the Chinese Communist Party in total control, the line between myth and reality is blurred.

 

Which brings us to the need for a politically transparent system. But Beijing is indeed working to reverse the process even in Hong Kong. It recently sought to introduce security laws in Hong Kong similar to those in China through its local subsidiary led by Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa. The resultant protests have led to its postponement. But Beijing will eventually have its way, because Hong Kong cannot be allowed to set a dangerous precedent.

 

The political developments there are more important for what it might mean for China. It wouldn't at all be surprising, therefore, if Hong Kong were to invite some severe reaction from Beijing. According to pro-democracy leader Emily Lau, "Beijing could send in the tanks," like they did at Tiananmen Square in 1989. But she hopes it wouldn't come to that. Any loosening of the political control over Hong Kong will have its ripple effects. That is the last thing Beijing would want.

 

Some analysts tend to regard the new leadership under Hu Jintao as relatively liberal. This is an illusion. Political differences among Chinese leaders are tactical rather than strategic. It is more to do with personalities and political power. There are no takers for the Western system of political democracy, as tending toward social chaos. The specter of social breakdown from political liberalism is intended to nullify any worthwhile debate on the subject. The collapse of the Soviet Union under former president Mikhail Gorbachev's glasnost is touted as an example of what could go wrong if China were to follow that example.

 

This is a phoney argument. In the case of the Soviet Union, the communist state was already in terminal decline when Gorbachev tried to cure the patient. It was, therefore, only a matter of time before the end came. And it came sooner than expected. The right lesson for China would be to open up its political system before it reached the dead end the Soviet way.

 

China's economic growth is creating social dynamics disruptive of monopoly political control. It is happening at two levels. At one level, its growing middle class is creating a natural constituency to share power. But with the Communist Party determined to maintain its political monopoly, there are inherent tensions between a small ruling oligarchy and the country's new political class. How and when this might come to a boil will be interesting to see.

 

At another level, there are growing social tensions from an array of forces marginalized by economic changes: urban-rural divide, coastal-interior disparities, and the new rich-poor chasm. At the same time, growing unemployment and large-scale rural migration into the cities is compounding the situation. A more insidious phenomenon is a pervasive sense of injustice and loss of faith in the system.

 

China's governing elite has a severe image problem as a grubby, greedy and corrupt lot. China has lost any sense of ideological cohesion, apart from its creed of greed. There is a sense of drift overtaking the society, with no clear direction and goal. This is where the danger lies: a floating mass of humanity with nowhere to go.

 

The Chinese Communist Party believes that without its political monopoly, China will plunge into social chaos. It looks like, though, that by tenaciously holding on to its political monopoly, the party might succeed in creating the very situation of social chaos that it seeks to prevent. The absence of alternative political space is spawning a pervasive sense of frustration, which doesn't bode well for the country. Because when the inevitable explosion occurs, China will be without an alternative political and constitutional mechanism to channel and contain this phenomena. In a sense, the communist party is sitting atop a powder keg.

 

This might not tally with the current optimism about China's future, but to overlook it is irresponsible.

 

Sushil Seth is a freelance writer based in Sydney.

 

 

US warns of increasing China threat

 

GROWING ARSENAL: China is deploying more missiles with even greater killing power across the Strait, and may be more inclined now to use them

 

By Charles Snyder

STAFF REPORTER IN WASHINGTON

 

China's military modernization and accelerating missile deployments across the Taiwan Strait could indicate an increased willingness to attack Taiwan, the Pentagon warned Wednesday.

 

While increased economic ties could ease tensions, cross-strait relations will remain sensitive "and could quickly deteriorate if either side perceives that the other has made a provocative statement or action," the Pentagon said in its latest annual report to Congress on China's military power.

 

"The PRC's ambitious military modernization casts a cloud over its declared preference for resolving differences with Taiwan through peaceful means," the report said.

 

The report said that China now has 450 short-range ballistic missiles in its Nanjing Military Region aimed at Taiwan, and is expected to add 75 a year for the next several years. If that prediction pans out, the number of missiles could double before the end of the decade.

 

In addition, the accuracy and lethality of the missile force is increasing, and the People's Liberation Army is developing variants of the CSS-6 missile that could allow them to be deployed further inland.

 

The 52-page report also warns that China's air force modernization is beginning to erode Taiwan's military superiority. China will eventually have a greater number of modern fighters than Taiwan and its missile force could be used to disrupt and soften Taiwan's air defenses.

 

"Over the next several years, given current trends, China likely will be able to cause significant damage to all of Taiwan's airfields and quickly degrade Taiwan's ground-based air defenses and associated command and control through a combination of SRBMs [short-range ballistic missiles], LACMs [land-attack cruise missiles], anti-radiation weapons, SOF [special operations forces], and other assets, unless Taiwan undertakes the defensive upgrades needed and to which it is committed," the Pentagon said.

 

"The PLA's offensive capabilities improve as each year passes, providing Beijing, in the absence of an effective response by Taiwan, with an increasing number of credible military options to intimidate or actually attack Taiwan," the report said.

 

China's military spending will double between 2000 and 2005, the Pentagon projects. It estimates that current defense spending may be three times the officially announced US$20 billion.

"Should China use force, its primary goal likely would be to compel a negotiated solution on terms favorable to Beijing. Beijing would most likely seek a rapid collapse of Taiwan's national will to preclude the US from intervening on Taipei's behalf," the report said.

 

Taiwan's susceptibility to coercion from threats depends on many factors, the Pentagon calculated. Perhaps the most important, it said, "is the degree to which Taiwan's leaders and populace perceive themselves to be different and separate from the mainland. Will they perceive that there is something real and significant to be protected by resisting the PLC?" the authors ask.

 

Other factors include Taiwan's assessment of the US and international reaction, the nature of Beijing's demands, Taiwan's military capabilities and the ability of Taiwan's leaders to "forge and maintain a consensus" among the nation's government and people.

 

While the report spoke favorably about Taiwan's efforts to reform its military, particularly through the two defense reform laws passed in January 2000, it expressed concern over declining defense spending.

 

"The defense budget's steady decline as a percentage of total government spending increasingly will challenge Taiwan's force modernization," it said.

 

Taiwan's army "still has major shortcomings as a fighting force," the report said. Despite its strengths, the navy's operations are not well integrated with the army's or air force's and suffers from an inability to conduct multiple missions at the same time. While air force personnel are "highly professional and hard-working," the report says they are overworked and some key pilot training is lacking.

 

Over the past year, the Pentagon notes, Beijing has toned down its Taiwan rhetoric, stressing its readiness to boost cross-strait ties.

 

The approach suggests that China wants "to appear to be the party willing to negotiate and to court public opinion in Taiwan, without making substantive compromises" in its Taiwan policy.

 

"Debate in Beijing over the more coercive options may wane in the run-up to [President] Chen [Shui-bian]'s anticipated re-election bid in 2004 if it appears more probable that Chen may be defeated," the report said. In the meantime, Beijing will continue to develop its military capabilities.

 

 

 

 

One in four brides last year came from abroad

 

By Roger Liu

STAFF REPORTER

 

A quarter of the 173,000 Taiwanese men who got married last year did so to a foreign woman, Directorate General of Budget Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) figures showed yesterday.

 

The majority of these women came from China, Hong Kong and Macau, with the others coming from Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Myanmar and Thailand.

According to a survey released last month by Ministry of the Interior's Department of Household Registration, foreign women are the best, and sometimes only, choice for Taiwanese men who are old, handicapped or from rural areas of the country such as Penghu, Yunlin, Chiayi, Nantou and Pingtung.

 

Another reason for the rise in foreign spouses could be the increasing independence of Taiwanese women, which for some makes them less appealing as wives.

 

"Taiwanese girls of the younger generation are too wild and lack loyalty to their husbands," said a 26-year-old taxi driver in Taipei. "Foreign girls from Southeast Asia and China are more submissive."

 

The immigration of these foreign brides has begun to influence the country's demographics. A decade ago, the ratio of men to women was 106 to 100.

 

With the influx of 230,000 foreign women over the past 10 years, this ratio has fallen to 103.95 to 100.

 

"The immigration of foreign brides is an important factor in this," Chen Tzu-ho, section chief of the department of population at the Ministry of the Interior, said yesterday. "And it has caused many social problems."

 

One of these is the cultural and language gap between the foreign brides and their husbands and children, according to an interior ministry report published two months ago.

 

"Most foreign mates are not accustomed to society here," the report said. "They lack a network of support from friends and family, which usually causes their families with Taiwanese to disintegrate."

 

The children of such unions are another emerging social problem. Most of the foreign mothers have received only a minimum education and may be too young to assume their maternal responsibilities.

 

"And if the mothers cannot speak Mandarin, how can the children learn from them?" Chen said.

 

Chen said his ministry was working on a plan with other government agencies to deal with the problem.

 

 

Asylum-seeker flies to South Korea

 

By Monique Chu

STAFF REPORTER

 

A North Korean woman was allowed to fly to South Korea yesterday to seek political asylum, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said yesterday.

 

The woman, Park Young-shil, 32, took a flight from CKS airport yesterday afternoon to Inchon.

 

"We respect her intention to seek political asylum in South Korea," a source at the ministry, who declined to be named, said.

 

"The [South] Korean government has formally requested the ministry to help her make a transfer in Taiwan to facilitate her move to seek political asylum in [South] Korea," the ministry said in a press release yesterday afternoon.

 

The ministry has worked with the Korean Mission in Taipei, the de facto South Korean embassy, during the past few days in handling Park's move to seek political asylum in Seoul.

 

Park was carried by Basic Spirit, a Panama-registered cargo ship, to Kaohsiung on Wednesday after she was rescued by the ship on July 13 at sea near Qinhuang island in Hebei Province, China.

 

Officials from the Korean Mission visited the woman on Wednesday in a move to help clarify her identity and her intentions, officials said.

 

The woman fled North Korea and reached Jilin Province in May 2001 before moving to work in a Korean restaurant in Hebei Province, the ministry said.

 

"She learned from TV reports that she would be able to make her way to South Korea if she sought political asylum in another country," the ministry said in the press release.

 

"So she jumped into the sea near Qinhuang island on July 13 and was then saved by the Panama-registered cargo ship while drifting on the water," the statement said.

 

The ministry's investigative report on Park's case said she was in good health before leaving for South Korea.

North Korean Park Young-shil runs to catch a flight to South Korea at CKS airport yesterday.

  

Officials at the Korean Mission were not available for comment.

 

Officials from both sides directly handling the case kept a low profile as some dubbed the issue as "highly sensitive."

 

 

Don't get sidetracked by turf war

 

Chief Prosecutor Yang Ta-chih, of the Hualien District Prosecutors' Office, took everyone by surprise on Wednesday by accusing police of engaging in unconstitutional road stops and vehicle checks in the anti-vote-buying crackdown ahead of the Hualien County commissioner by-election. His criticism was the latest complication in the campaign for tomorrow's election.

 

Yang's attacks put Minister of Interior Yu Cheng-hsien on the spot, since Yu had ordered the roadside checks. This sparked tension between Yu and the Minister of Justice Chen Ding-nan, who had been spearheading the joint effort by their ministries in the crackdown. And, in all likelihood, Yang's comments damaged this joint cooperation.

 

Yang's outburst could be seen as nothing more than another flare-up in the long-running turf war between prosecutors and the police. Yang noted that it is the job of prosecutors to head investigations into vote-buying and while the police are to follow instructions and cooperate. However, his sense of dissatisfaction also stems from the way local prosecutors feel that the large number of non-locals, specifically officials and prosecutors from the central government, are encroaching on them. Only last Friday, during a meeting convened by Yu and Chen, Yang said, "We Hualien prosecutors already know how to do our jobs. We do not need our superiors to show us how to accomplish our mission."

 

Given that the Hualien election is probably the last chance to drill police and prosecutors in how to carry out a crackdown on vote-buying before the next presidential election, it seems petty to act in such a resentful manner.

 

But as far as interpreting the Constitution, Yang is right -- and so are Chen and Yu. Basically the controversy centers around Yu's declaration that 24-hour road stops and vehicle checks would be conducted during the campaign. The Council of Grand Justices has ruled that road stops and vehicle checks cannot be completely random and groundless. There must be a reasonable suspicion of wrongdoing, such as drunk driving or, in Hualien's case, vote buying, before vehicles can be stopped and checked.

 

At issue is what Yu meant when he said "24-hour road stops and checks." If Yu meant all vehicles were to be stopped and checked indiscriminately or randomly, then that might be unconstitutional. But if police are stationed along roads to monitor all passing vehicles and then stop those which appeared suspicious, then it would not be unconstitutional. However, this raises the question of how "suspicious" is being defined. It is quite possible that not all police officers' will "stop and check" only when there is well-grounded suspicion. Whether reasonable suspicion exists varies with each individual case; it is not fair to say the roadside stops and checks are unconstitutional, period.

 

It is good that Yang highlighted the importance of balancing citizens' constitutionally protected rights and the need to crackdown on vote-buying. What is unforgivable is the way the pan-blue camp and unificationist media seized this opportunity to try and incite resentment in Hualien -- and elsewhere -- about the crackdown. They argue that Hualien residents have been inconvenienced and subject to disrespect and distrust. But then the pan-blue camp has never been comfortable with anti-corruption efforts.

 

Many people feel that minor inconveniences are a small price to pay for a clean election and genuine democracy. No one doubts that only a small minority of people are involved in vote-buying. Official say the crackdown effort targets these people. But everyone should be asking why Hualien residents are being made to feel that they live in a police state in order to prove that the nation's democracy is alive and well.

 

 

Freeze KMT accounts

 

Your story on a lawmaker's proposal to create a public scholarship for children of low income families using KMT ill-gotten assets ("Lawmaker turns eyes to KMT's assets, July 27, page 3") should be welcome news for many people who protested earlier, asking the KMT to donate its party's wealth to help poor students pay fees ("Lien asked to donate KMT assets," July 18, page 1). Personally, I think it is a wonderful idea.

 

Though it is generally known that the KMT's vast assets were acquired illegally, yet it appeared that lawmakers have not done much about it other than occasional rambling. According to The Soong Dynasty by Sterling Seagrave and Formosa Betrayed by George Kerr -- which should be required reading for every college student in Taiwan -- the KMT acquired its wealth from a variety of sources, such as properties confiscated after Japan surrendered, goods provided by the UN Relief & Rehabilitation Administration for humanitarian purposes after the war and other foreign-aid packages, especially from the US, to fight a communist take-over. Much of the evidence has been well-documented and should not be difficult to verify.

 

If the lawmakers are not able or willing to investigate the legitimacy of the assets, the people of Taiwan, especially college students, should organize some kind of petition drive to collect signatures and demand legislators to carry out their duty. People could also petition the government of Switzerland to freeze the trust fund operated by Swiss banks, where the KMT has transferred the bulk of its assets ("KMT says it will move its fund to Switzerland," Jan. 24, page 3), and ask that the money be returned to Taiwan where it legally belongs.

 

If the people of the Philippines were able to ask the Swiss government to freeze and return the assets illegally acquired by Marcos regime, why can't the people of Taiwan do the same for the KMT's assets?

 

Kris Liao

San Francisco, California

 

 

Justice minister wants prosecutor investigated

 

CONTROVERSY: Chen Ding-nan said Yang Ta-chih's political actions and criticisms were an abuse of his position and had hurt the image of the judicial system

 

By Jimmy Chuang

STAFF REPORTER

 

Minister of Justice Chen Ding-nan yesterday labeled the accusations of Chief Prosecutor Yang Ta-chih for the Hualien District Prosecutors' Office, who also acts as spokesman for the office, against Minister of the Interior Yu Cheng-hsien "outrageous" and said he had ordered the Taiwan High Court Prosecutors' Office to investigate whether Yang had been "too talkative" for a spokesman.

 

"I have asked prosecutors from the Taiwan High Court Prosecutors' Office to begin their investigation immediately," Chen said. "Yang's remarks have seriously damaged prosecutors' public image."

 

Chen's comments on the controversy came in a speech during the inauguration ceremony of 16 newly assigned prosecutors-general of local prosecutors' offices.

 

Chen said Yang had taken advantage of his media connections to hold a press conference on Wednesday to criticize Yu -- by asking a judiciary reporter from the United Daily News to inform colleagues on the same beat of the press conference.

 

That reporter asked the campaign headquarters of Hualien Country commissioner candidate Hsieh Shen-shan of the KMT-PFP alliance, for help in getting the message out by means of cellphone text messaging.

 

Chen said the text message sent to reporters on Wednesday read "Hualien Chief Prosecutor Yang Ta-chih will hold a press conference at 8:30am at the prosecutors' office to criticize Minister of the Interior Yu Cheng-hsien's ordering 24-hour spot checks on the main roads and highways in Hualien."

 

Chen said that the job of a prosecutor's office spokesperson is to make public announcements or explain cases the prosecutors are working on.

Justice Minister Chen Ding-nan holds up a newspaper report on the crackdown on vote-buying in Hualien County during a press conference yesterday.