20031022

APEC summit ends with anti-terror pledge

AP , BANGKOK

Tying security to economic growth, Pacific Rim leaders ended their annual summit yesterday with a pledge to "dismantle" terrorist groups, block the spread of weapons of mass destruction and to try again to get North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions.

The declaration at the 21-member APEC summit came after the reclusive communist state conducted one and possibly two missile tests into the Sea of Japan in what US officials called a provocative act.

US President George W. Bush campaigned for his war on terror throughout the two-day meeting despite complaints by some countries that APEC's traditional economic focus had been blurred. Bush also won support for a new multilateral push to end the year-old nuclear standoff with Pyongyang.

Apparently mirroring misgivings by some member states, the summit's final written communique did not specifically mention North Korea's nuclear threat.

However, a verbal closing statement read by Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on behalf of the leaders called for a restart of six-nation talks to resolve the crisis and establish a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.

Thaksin, flanked by the 20 other APEC heads of government and representatives, stressed that the North's security concerns also must be addressed. Pyongyang has long claimed that the US is plotting to invade it -- a charge dismissed by Bush, though he has refused the North's demands that Washington sign a formal nonaggression treaty.

The communique urged all countries to "eliminate the severe and growing danger problem posed by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction" and to "dismantle fully and without delay transnational terrorist groups that threaten the APEC economies."

It also called for tough restrictions on shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles that could be used by terrorists to shoot down civilian aircraft.

Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad complained that a preoccupation with security topics was diluting APEC's core mission of economic reform. He also continued to stir up controversy by repeating his charge that Jews control the world -- even after criticism from Bush and others.

On the economic front, the leaders urged the WTO to revive global trade talks that collapsed last month in the Mexican resort of Cancun. APEC's two-day summit did not offer a formula to break the impasse at the WTO, but leaders said negotiators should go back to work on a text they had left behind.

Before heading to their final meeting, the leaders gathered in an ornate royal palace for a group photograph. Following a long-standing tradition, they wore shirts of the host country -- in this case, tailored Thai silk ones, featuring animal and floral patterns.

North Korea rattled nerves with an anti-ship missile exercise off its east coast as part of its annual military maneuvers. It was North Korea's first missile test-firing since April and called attention to Bush's fledgling proposal to defuse tensions by offering Pyongyang a five-nation security guarantee if it would scrap its nuclear weapons program.

Japan said yesterday that it suspected North Korea may have test-fired a second missile, although South Korea disputed Tokyo's contention.

The US pressed the summit to take note of Bush's initiative, which would commit the US, China, Japan, Russia and South Korea to a no-invasion pledge, though many details are not yet clear.

The scourge of terrorism was a prominent summit topic. Bush personally thanked Thailand for the capture of Asia's top terror suspect, known as Hambali, who is accused of masterminding bomb attacks against US and other Western targets across Southeast Asia.

Lee fails to make progress with China

By Huang Tai-lin

STAFF REPORTER , IN BANGKOK

Cross-strait relations showed no signs of improving, despite Lee Yuan-tseh, President Chen Shui-bian's special emissary to APEC, calling for dialogue with China yesterday in Bangkok.

At a press conference prior his departure, Lee said that during his exchange with Chinese President Hu Jintao, he had conveyed Chen's greetings and desire for both sides of the Strait to resume dialogue.

"He immediately responded that, under the `one China' principle, both sides can sit down and talk," Lee said.

"I then told him that Chen had mentioned before that the `one China' issue could be negotiated in the future," he said.

Lee said he had also conveyed Chen's greeting to US President George W. Bush.

"And when I was trying to say more, he smiled and said that we'd talked a lot about cross-strait issues last year and he told me that after talking to me last year, he had less fear about cross-strait [relations] because he trusted my words," Lee said.

Lee said Bush responded. "We will stay," after Lee expressed his gratitude for US support for Taiwan.

Saying that other APEC leaders were friendly, Lee added that Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi was surprised that he could converse with him Japanese.

Lee departed shortly after the press conference for Vietnam, where he is slated to deliver a speech at the Asian Chemistry Congress.

Meanwhile, at a press conference at the Shangri-la Hotel, where the Chinese delegation stayed, Hu said the `one China' policy is the premise for any resumption of cross-strait talks.

"China is willing to resume cross-strait talks under the premise of the `one China' principle," Hu said.

Lawmakers deadlocked over budget

REVIEW: The legislative speaker concluded negotiations by saying the budget should wait until the Cabinet explains why it considers amendment requests illegal

By Fiona Lu

STAFF REPORTER

Lawmakers failed to reach a conclusion on next year's central government budget during cross-party negotiations yesterday.

The negotiations ended with a comment by legislative speaker Wang Jin-pyng that the budgetary review should wait until the Executive Yuan explains its remark that a request to submit an amended spending plan lacked a legal foundation and was unconstitutional.

The negotiations were held following a request by lawmakers of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and People First Party (PFP), one day after the Cabinet submitted an explanatory note in the hope that opposition lawmakers would change their mind and resume the budgetary review.

The explanation was offered after the pan-blue-controlled Legislature voted last Tuesday in favor of a motion to shelve review of the government's annual budget.

Using their numerical superiority at the legislature, pan-blue lawmakers won the vote and concluded that the legislative review would have to wait until the Cabinet submits an amended budgetary plan so that the Legislature could conduct a review of the original as well as the amended version.

PFP lawmakers said that the budget, which contains a spending plan for a restructured Judicial Yuan as well as a fund for a National Human Rights Memorial Hall, which has yet to be approved, disregard the laws which stipulate that the government can only budget for existing institutions.

The opposition parties disagreed with the Cabinet's exclusion from the annual government budget of a NT$23.6 billion subsidy for national infrastructure construction and a NT$9.8 billion agricultural fund. They demanded that the Cabinet include the funds in the amended spending plan, because it would not be permitted to initiate a special budget later on.

The Cabinet has said the legislature is not permitted to request that it increase spending while reviewing the annual budget.

Cabinet Secretary-General Liu Shih-fang said that the demand for a budgetary amendment lacked a legal foundation, since the Cabinet could find no statutory grounds for submitting an amendment in either the Constitution, the Budget Law or the Public Debt Law.

Quoting Premier Yu Shyi-kun, Cabinet spokesman Lin Chia-lung said last Wednesday that the legislative request was against the Constitution and the Budget Law, since lawmakers cannot demand a budget amendment or an increased budget during their review of the annual spending plan.

At yesterday's cross-party ne-gotiations Wang said he disagreed with the Cabinet spokesman's view, because the request was not the first of its kind.

He said the Legislature had demanded an amended budget proposal from the Taiwan Power Company in 2001 during the review of a special fund for construction of the Fourth Nuclear Plant.

The Legislative Yuan has the power to reject the annual budget if necessary, Wang said.

Pan-blue lawmakers have also voiced their dissatisfaction with the explanatory note presented on Monday.

"Rather than submitting an amended spending plan, the Cabinet issued an explanatory note, which is rubbish," PFP whip Chou Hsi-wei said at a news conference yesterday morning.

Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) Legislator Lo Chih-ming said the budget crisis offers the opportunity to carry out plans for dissolving the 223-member Legislature and change the date for the next legislative election.

"The Cabinet should seize on the opportunity the crisis offers to dissolve the pan-blue-controlled Legislature. The dissolution can be considered if the Legislature continues to veto the annual budget," Lo said at yesterday's legislative assembly.

Wife seeks help for her husband trapped in China

HUMAN RIGHTS: Lin Shao-kai disappeared a day after he told his wife he was coming home. She later discovered he had been detained in Shanghai

By Debby Wu

STAFF REPORTER

Chen Shu-ya yesterday sought help for her husband, Lin Shao-kai, who has been detained by China, most likely because of his connection with the Falun Gong movement.

"My husband had called me every day, and on Oct. 7 he sent me a mobile phone text message saying he was coming home. He was scheduled to return the next day, but he did not show up and I lost communication with him completely," Chen said at a press conference.

Lin and Chen, 29, were married in May, and Chen is a Falun Gong practitioner.

Chen said that she sought help from a friend in China and found out her husband had been detained by the national security bureau in Shanghai, although they could not discover why.

"I have no faith in China's human rights record, and although my husband is still alive, I don't know how he is doing at all," she said.

Chen said that she was proud of her husband and would continue practicing Falun Gong.

The Taiwan Falun Dafa Institute yesterday condemned the Chinese government for what it called the illegal detention of Taiwanese and abuse of Falun Gong practitioners. The institute asked the Taiwanese government to help rescue Lin.

"China should release innocent Taiwanese Falun Gong practitioners immediately, and the legislature should condemn former Chinese president Jiang Zemin's cruelty," said Chang Ching-hsi, director of the institute.

Chang said that Lin's was not the only case of a Taiwanese Falun Gong practitioner running into trouble with the authorities when visiting China.

Lin's case was reported to the Straits Exchange Foundation last Friday, but no further information has been offered by the Chinese government, Chang said.

Fan Kuo-hua, another practitioner, said he has had a similar experience.

Fan visited his father in China last year and tried to disseminate information on how the Chinese government had abused local Falun Gong practitioners. He was arrested by the police and immediately deported.

"We hope the Chinese government would explain what crime Lin Shao-kai has committed as soon as possible. Meanwhile, the [Taiwanese] government should accelerate its rescue actions," said Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Wang Chung-yu.

CONFUSION: Japan's state broadcaster NHK said that the communist country had launched its second rocket in two days, but South Korean officials failed to confirm it

Japan's state broadcaster said North Korea had test-fired a missile yesterday, but South Korea said it had no evidence of a second attention-grabbing launch by Pyongyang to coincide with a meeting of Pacific Rim leaders.

NHK television said the communist North had apparently launched a short-range surface-to-ship missile, following a test-firing on Monday that US officials dubbed an attempt to steal the limelight at the Bangkok summit.

But South Korea, which seeks to keep ties with its communist neighbor on an even keel, said it had no immediate proof of a second test launch, although there were conflicting signals about the likelihood.

"Our system did not spot any missile launch today by North Korea," Kim Hyung-kyu, a spokesman for the Joint Chiefs, said. "So, according to our analysis, the report is not true."

A spokesman for the South Korean Defense Ministry said it had been unable to confirm the report.

"This is what we can say for now," he said. "But we cannot say the NHK report is not true for sure."

In Tokyo, Japan's Defense Agency said it had received a report "that North Korea may have fired a surface-to-ship missile from its east coast this morning."

"We don't know the details but, as far as we know, missiles of this type have a range of 100km," a spokesman said. This is a distance of 60 miles. No further details were available.

US President George W. Bush and other Asia-Pacific leaders wrapped up their Bangkok summit yesterday vowing to "eliminate the severe and growing danger posed by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery."

The declaration contained no direct reference to North Korea and its nuclear program. But Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said in a verbal statement that the countries agreed to address Pyongyang's security concerns, while demanding verification of the Korean Peninsula's nuclear-free status.

On Monday, the North fired a similar missile into the sea between the Korean Peninsula and Japan in what Seoul said appeared to be part of military exercises by the isolated communist country.

In 1998, North Korea shocked the world by firing a Taepodong ballistic missile over Japan's main island of Honshu and into the sea off Japan's Pacific coast.

But, as in previous North Korean launches of short-range ballistic missiles, Tokyo played down the impact of yesterday's reported firing.

"It poses no direct threat to Japan or its neighbors," Japanese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hatsuhisa Takashima said.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov, Moscow's top Korea expert, was quoted by the Itar-Tass news agency as saying that any such launch was within North Korea's rights.

"Even if this launch took place, I cannot see why this would be seen as some sort of extraordinary event. Our military launches missiles, as do the Americans," he said in Bangkok.

Monday's launch was likely to increase international pressure on Pyongyang to exercise restraint as efforts continue to restart multilateral talks over its weapons program.

Bush, in a policy shift to re-energize talks with North Korea, joined South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun on Monday in calling for a new round of talks after an inconclusive first meeting late in August.

Military experts say test launches such as Monday's violate no agreements but are often timed for political effect.

In similar vein, North Korea's media reported that leader Kim Jong-il had visited a military farm on Monday.

Kim, 61, was last seen in public on Sept. 9, the 55th anniversary of the founding of North Korea.

FOREIGN INVESTMENT: The Ministry of Economic Affairs says more company representatives attended the 2003 Taiwan Business Alliance Conference than expected, bringing billions of dollars into the country

"The efforts in soliciting foreign investment are not finished yet and the government will continue to work on them."－Shih Yen-shiang, vice minister of economic affairs

The government and private sector have landed 14 cooperation contracts with multinational companies, bringing the total confirmed foreign investment during the 2003 Taiwan Business Alliance Conference to NT$138.8 billion, a government official announced yesterday.

More than 2,000 foreign and local company representatives joined the four-day conference that started Sunday, far more than the 600 originally expected, said Vice Minister of Economic Affairs Shih Yen-shiang.

But he said, "The efforts in soliciting foreign investment are not finished yet and the government will continue to work on them."

Six multinationals signed cooperation memorandums with the government and Taiwanese companies yesterday, following eight others which were inked on Monday.

Cooperation between South Korean and Taiwanese online games leaders was spotlighted yesterday, after the South Korean firm NC Soft announced a NT$140 million joint venture with Gamania Digital Entertainment Co Ltd, Taiwan's No.1 online game provider.

"NC Soft can develop products which are more suitable for the Chinese market, or the global market, through local operations," NC Soft chairman Jung Hwan-kim said in a statement.

Gamania brought NC Soft's Lineage online fantasy game to Taiwan in July 2000. The new venture, which will be 50-50 owned by the two parties, is expected to start beta testing of Lineages II in December.

Three foreign biotech companies -- Genovate Biotechnology Co, PharmaEssentia Corp and Ryss Lab Inc -- signed memorandums of understanding with local companies to develop new drugs yesterday.

Wireless application provider EMTAC Technology Corp signed a strategic partnership memorandum with Itochu Corp of Japan. Italian Morini Franco Motori Spa will form strategic ties with Taiwan Golden Bee Co to manufacture scooters and engines.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs announced seven new investment projects during the conference, including the establishment of regional research and development centers here by Ericsson AB, Broadcom Corp, AKT and Telcordia Technologies. There will also be a mobile phone software development collaboration project between Access, a leading Japanese software provider, and the government's Institute for Information Industry.

On the retail side, Tesco Plc, the No.1 UK retailer, said yesterday that it planned to add up to six new outlets in the country within three years. The new investment is expected to increase the retailer's purchases from local suppliers and could create about 2,400 additional jobs.

In addition, US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer Inc plans to spend NT$700 million to build a new four-store office complex in Tamsui. The new building is scheduled to be finished by March 2005, the ministry said.

Former president Lee Teng-hui once said, "Our time has arrived." Time for what? Time to take off the ill-fitting dress of the Republic of China and establish an independent country under the name of Taiwan.

Why has the time arrived? First, Lee believes that Beijing will not dare challenge the US' military might at present. Second, since Beijing is the host of the 2008 Olympics, it will not cause any mischief before that time.

The first hypothesis is based on the judgment that the US has strengthened its unilateralism after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. But it is still unknown whether US foreign policy will change after the US presidential election next year.

The second hypothesis assumes that Chinese leaders and people attach more importance to the Olympic Games than the Taiwan issue. This hypothesis also requires more analysis. Of course, Chinese nationalists will refute such a claim.

To what extent are the Olympics actually related to China's economic interests and international image? What is the relationship between these problems and China's future development strategies? A more thorough analysis is required before a conclusion can be reached.

Also seeing the Olympics in Beijing as a watershed, Japanese academic Kenichi Ohmae offers a different view on Taiwan-China relations. He says that the best opportunity to unify under a federal system will be some time prior to the Olympics.

In addition to the trend of China-centered economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region, Ohmae's argument also takes into consideration the thesis that former Chinese president Jiang Zemin, while he still has some influence, will promote unification to help secure his place in history. Ohmae predicts that the two will be unified by around 2005.

These interpretations involve not only objective factual analyses, but also incorporate the values and strategies of these "prophets." Since Lee hopes to lead the people of Taiwan toward independence, he certainly focuses on the question of what time would be the most advantageous to do so.

Ohmae has long advocated cross-national economic integration in the hope of easing a standoff between sovereign states and increasing economic interaction between regions. He not only advocates that Taiwan and China establish a federation but also encourages Japan to actively interact with the members of this federation. From a short- to medium-term point of view, the year 2008 indeed offers a good opportunity.

Whose prediction is correct? This involves changes in real-life situations and the ability of the players to implement what they advocate. A more interesting question is: Will the world be at peace after 2008? If Taiwan declares independence and Bei-jing does not use force before the Olympics, Taiwan still has to face the pressure Beijing applies at international occasions and the possibility that China might launch a war after the Olympics.

If unification occurs within the next two or three years, how should the various political, economic and social systems of Taiwan and China be combined? Won't such interaction lead to still greater conflict?

Policy implementation must not be halted because of concern about difficulties that may result. Advocates must make more rational statements about the processes involved. They should also foresee problems they might encounter in succeeding stages after attaining the initial goal, and come up with methods for dealing with any problems. Only then can they persuade people to join forces and implement their plans.

Driven by the US, anti-terrorism has become the main issue at this year's APEC summit. This is not unreasonable, as the issue has been a serious problem for many APEC members. Since hijacked planes crashed in New York, Washington and Pennsylvania two years ago, Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines have also been attacked. Images of wreckage and dead and injured people drenched in blood continue to haunt us.

Fortunately, Taiwan has been spared direct harm from terrorist attacks, but Academia Sinica President Lee Yuan-tseh, who is representing Taiwan at the APEC summit, has been faced with a different kind of terrorism in Bangkok. This indirect "terrorism" has been unleashed by Taiwan's very own pro-unification media. With next year's presidential election in their sights, these media outlets, which favor the joint Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)-

People First Party (PFP) ticket, have apparently been trying to create the false impression that Lee holds a "one China" position in line with the pan-blue camp's platform. This is an attempt to influence middle-of-the-road voters and sow discord among supporters of President Chen Shui-bian's dictum of "one country on each side" of the Taiwan Strait.

Since the APEC leaders' summit opened on Monday, the pro-unification media have been publishing groundless, unconfirmed reports about his remarks. First they misquoted Lee as saying that Taiwan should resume talks with China on the basis of the "1992 consensus." After Lee denied the reports, they immediately created another rumor that US President George W. Bush had told Lee that the US opposes the "one country on each side" dictum. All these reports are fictitious and just as ridiculous as the China Times front-page report earlier this month saying that the IMF had warned Taiwan about its government debt. That report was laughable, considering that Taiwan is not an IMF member. How could this UN-associated institution issue any warning about Taiwan's economic condition?

Still worse, these irresponsible reports were aired by pro-unification TV channels over and over again, forcing Lee to clarify an issue that threatened to whip up a major political storm back home. On top of this came the Chinese delegation's numerous activities aimed at suppressing Taiwan's status and visibility at the summit.

Faced with so many enemies, how could Lee possibly concentrate on defending Taiwan's rights at this international gathering and tackle APEC's unfair treatment of Taiwan -- including preventing the nation's head of state from attending the summit in person?

The pro-unification media have tried to besiege Lee with endless harassment and "terror" tactics. Is this not an obstruction of Taiwan's voice and visibility in the international community? Their actions are based solely on the electoral considerations of KMT and PFP candidates. They have put partisan interests above the nation's interests and seriously weakened the Taiwanese delegation's work at the summit. The people of Taiwan should strongly condemn such actions. They should also call for the media to stop harassing Taiwan's delegation.

In fact, the people of Taiwan should abandon these unprofessional media outlets. The sooner the better.

Speaking in an interview with the Washington Post earlier this month, President Chen Shui-bian accused China of "hostile intent" against Taiwan and challenged the so-called "one China" principle that belittles and marginalizes this nation. He said that "the people of Taiwan firmly believe that there is one country on each side of the [Taiwan] Strait. One China and one Taiwan."

Although Chen has made such statements time and again over the past year, this long exclusive interview, which puts together his ideas and statements, occupied nearly half of the international front page in the Post.

In the past, when reporting on Taiwan's relations with China, the US media would habitually include China's views by adding that Beijing regarded Taiwan as "a renegade province of China." The Post article quoted Chen as saying that "Taiwan is not a province of one country nor is it a state of another," highlighting Taiwan's clear goal of walking along its own road of survival.

Chen's remarks not only upheld Taiwan's platform but also revealed his humility in expressing good-will and flexibility to China. But he still has to face animosity from China and an opposition in Taiwan which echoes Beijing's call for "one China." He has gained a deeper understanding of the evil nature of China's political culture and has realized that, suppressed by the "one China" ideology, the only way to secure Taiwan's interests and rights as a sovereign state is to challenge the "one China" principle.

China's refusal to give up "one China" is its own business. To achieve its goal of annexing Taiwan on a legal level and eliminating Taiwan's status as a sovereign state, China can only hold fast to its "one China" principle and claim that it has succeeded the Republic of China. Taiwan must not accept this principle, otherwise it will have to surrender its sovereignty and become "a part of China."

Clearly aware of this problem, former president Lee Teng-hui issued his "special state-to-state" model for cross-strait relations. His aides also told foreign newspapers that the "one China" stance would no longer be adopted. This statement suffered great pressure from the Clinton administration in the US. Lee did not "revoke" his "special state-to-state" dictum but never mentioned it again during his days in office.

After Chen proposed his "one country on each side" platform and pushed for the holding of referenda, the US Department of State also expressed "concern." Washington diplomats still clinging to a Cold War mentality were all nerves. However, Chen "would not bow to US pressure to modify recent moves," as the Post quoted.

The firm attitude of Taiwan's two popularly elected presidents in challenging the "one China" principle ought to make the US government review its "one China" policy. Although the US' "one China" policy has a definition different to that of China's "one China principle," Taiwan's democratization and normalization of relations with the US have still been unreasonably and unduly obstructed by the "one China" policy.

The interview also quoted a Taiwanese "pollster," apparently a supporter of the pan-blue camp, as saying that "the only way [Chen] can win is if he induces a reaction from China." It also reported that "the Bush administration has watched with some alarm as the [Taiwanese] president has launched initiatives that many fear are designed to prompt a sharp reaction from Beijing."

The report quoted US government officials as saying that they worry "Chen would use the constitutional reform package ... to change the official name of the country from Republic of China to Taiwan, a move that would enrage Beijing."

These comments are either a residue of Cold War thinking or a reflection of their ignorance of changes to global strategic configurations. If Chen's only winning stratagem is to prompt a sharp reaction from China, then Beijing -- since it dislikes Chen and wants to hand-pick another Tung Chee-hwa in Taiwan -- can achieve its goal as long as it refuses to be provoked and carefully conceal its ferocity.

But is it that simple? Even if there is some truth in this argument, it only explains the dilemma China is facing amid efforts made by Taiwan's localized government to pursue self-determination. Chen is capitalizing on China's predicament to get out of this "one China" trap. According to this argument, an irrational response from China will help Chen in his re-election bid. If Beijing refrains from responding, Chen will not necessarily lose but Taiwan will definitely benefit in establishing its autonomous status. It doesn't matter whether China responds or not -- Taiwan will always have the upper hand.

Cold War thinking has it that China will act strongly and irrationally when Taiwan moves toward independence. But this thinking ignores significant changes in the global situation -- Taiwan's democratization; changes in the international strategic situation, which prohibits China from annexing Taiwan by military, coercive means; and that China is "powerful" on the surface, but in fact has to rely on overseas markets and capital for survival. Unlike in the Mao Zedong era when China was in grinding poverty, the use of military forces against other countries is no longer an option.

Given Taiwan's unique historical background and its experience in dealing with China, its democratization will definitely lead to "one country on each side." When Lee was in power, forming the first localized regime, China condemned him for being pro-Taiwan independence. After Chen took over, Beijing criticized him in turn for backing "incremental Taiwan independence." But these developments merely reflect trends in Taiwan's public opinion and government policy. China can voice opposition but cannot effectively curb it.

Brainwashed by China's logic of banditry, some pro-China figures have turned a blind eye to its provocations against Taiwan. They take them for granted and don't even feel nervous. Instead, Taiwan's call for international help is deemed by them to be acts of provocation.

If China were rational and respectful toward democracy and not hostile toward Taiwan, tensions would not escalate and crises would not occur. Portraying Taiwan's attempts to defend itself and pursue self-determination and future survival as the cause of tensions is a perversion of cause and effect.

In the latter part of the Cold War, the US wanted to use China to contain the Soviet Union. Because China had strategic value, the US chose to sacrifice the interests of Chiang Kai-shek's Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in exchange for the normalization of relations with China. But now the strategic situation has changed completely.

China remains the US' only potential enemy of substance. In terms of a strategy for survival, what China fears the most is becoming the US' imaginary enemy and to see US intervention in wars around its borders. Bei-jing's show of support for the US war on terror and efforts pushing for dialogue between the US and North Korea are actually aimed at easing these two fears.

Pro-China figures have been blindly extolling the greatness of China, but China itself is not that blind. A closer look at books on national security published in China reveals an awareness that Taiwan's strategic status is of importance to the US, which will not allow Taiwan to fall into the hands of a hostile country. Therefore, China must have the determination and capability to go to war with the US if it is to use force against Taiwan. Except for the pro-China media and politicians who take pleasure in intimidating Taiwan, no one dares say that China really has this determination and capability.

The US also relied on China to counter the Soviet Union during the Cold War, but now China has to depend on the US for its markets, technology and capital. Without the US market, China's economic development will suffer a serious setback. A decrease in export and manufacturing opportunities will have an impact that will directly challenge the Beijing regime's survival.

The new generation of Chinese leaders consists of technocrats and management figures, rather than "revolutionaries" as were the first and second generations. They know China's weaknesses better and thus make a greater effort to protect achievements gained from economic reforms, especially the wealth amassed by the offspring of influential officials.

For them, using force against Taiwan is not a feasible option because it apparently runs counter to Beijing's development strategy of not opposing the US. It will only cause China's collapse.

Instead of changing policy and respecting Taiwan's democratic choices, China hopes against hope that the pan-blue camp will retake power in next year's election and accept its "one China" principle. Such an expectation offers Chen a timely opportunity to seek self-determination for Taiwan and challenge the "one China" ideology. It also allows Taiwanese people to oppose the KMT's attempt to overturn the "special state-to-state" relations and "one country on each side" platforms and to reject the "one China" trap.