Russia, US work to close Siberian reactors

NUCLEAR DILEMMA: As aging nuclear reactors are being shut down there are fears of nuclear proliferation as thousands of scientists and technicians seek work abroad

THE OBSERVER , MOSCOW

Friday, Oct 31, 2003,Page 6

Russia has lifted its ban on foreigners at two secret military settlements in Siberia as a first step in retiring its most dangerous surviving, Soviet-designed, nuclear power plants.

This groundbreaking deal between Russia and the US will, when fully worked through, complete a nuclear threat reduction program and end plutonium production in both countries. But the situation, ironically, is complicated because the demise of obsolete Siberian reactors could increase the prospect of nuclear proliferation by making thousands of Russian military scientists and technicians redundant and encouraging them to seek work abroad.

The three condemned reactors are 40 years old; their design is the one from which Soviet nuclear engineers learned lessons in order to build the now-infamous Chernobyl power plant in Ukraine -- the site of the world's worst nuclear disaster in 1986. Urgent safety upgrades are being prepared by the Russian and US experts involved in the program even during the phase-out period in order to avert a meltdown.

The ADE-4 and ADE-5 reactors in Seversk near Tomsk, western Siberia, and the ADE-2 reactor in Zheleznogorsk, eastern Siberia, generate enough plutonium to produce approximately one nuclear weapon every 36 hours.

They also generate heat and electricity for the surrounding communities and will continue to operate until low-emission, efficient coal-fired plants are put in place.

`Closed cities'

Seversk, once known as Tomsk-7, and Zheleznogorsk, formerly Krasnoyask-26, were among the 10 "closed cities" that were at the heart of the Soviet Union's huge nuclear weapons production industry.

Built in the 1940s and early 1960s, these so-called nuclear cities housed more than 170,000 people, mostly nuclear power workers and their families.

These communities, used to receiving the best of everything until the end of the Cold War, are now facing the prospect of wide-ranging job losses as their reactors and reprocessing plants close.

A new accord, agreed in Moscow after long and difficult negotiations, will allow the specialist US enterprises Washington Group International and Raytheon Technical Services access to the once top-secret plants to enable technicians to shut down the reactors and replace them them with coal-fired energy operations. The cost of the work -- US$466 million -- will be met by Washington.

The revitalized -- and safe -- Seversk project will have to produce 1,810 megawatts-thermal (MWt) of energy and the Zheleznogorsk project 765 MWt in order to make up for the energy lost through the closure of the old reactors.

The plants at Seversk and Zheleznogorsk are the last of Russia's original 13 plutonium-producing reactors slated to be dismantled. The US has already shut down all of its own 14 plutonium production reactors. According to reliable but unofficial estimates, Russia has 125 tonnes of weapons plutonium stored at various sites around the country. The US has declared that it holds 100 tonnes of plutonium.

These are quantities far in excess of their perceived defense needs.

A report recently drawn up by Russian nuclear regulators and provided to US officials states that the three surviving military reactors are in such poor physical condition that their conversion to civilian use could result in a Chernobyl-type accident. Several prominent US nuclear experts -- among them Princeton University's Frank von Hippel and Harvard University's Matthew Bunn, both former White House non-proliferation advisors -- have also urged against the conversion of the reactors.

Lack of safety features

The situation is grave because, unlike US reactors, they lack essential safety features such as concrete containment domes capable of holding radiation in case of an accident leading to major leaks.

They have potentially fatal deficiencies in the areas of design, equipment and materials.

US inspectors last year visited the plants, however, and gave priority to a series of urgent safety upgrades proposed by Russian experts in order to avert a disaster during the final phase and shutdown of the reactors.

These will be designed and put in place under the authority of the US Energy Department's Pacific Northwest National Lab at a projected cost of US$25 million. Significantly, these upgrades will not extend the life of the reactors.

Russia is also worried by the repercussions of large-scale unemployment among its nuclear specialists. Layoffs on the proposed scale may well pose significant proliferation risks when nuclear weapons scientists and technologists are forced to seek work elsewhere.

Specialists at the plants are promised jobs under a US-financed "nuclear cities" program, which aims to boost job chances for the former Soviet weapons scientists. But tens of thousands of such specialists are already unemployed.

Washington is now considering boosting the scheme by creating jobs in Russia in a bid to head off fishing expeditions by rogue states or terrorist organizations keen to net nuclear expertise from the pool of unemployed Russian scientists.

N Korea says crisis unpredictable

NUCLEAR STANDOFF: A top Chinese official on a trip to Pyongyang was told by his hosts that US hostility meant that the crisis was entering a `difficult phase'

REUTERS , BEIJING

Friday, Oct 31, 2003,Page 1

"We don't apply any kind of pressure in diplomacy. This is China's diplomatic style."

－Zhang Qiyue, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman

North Korea told China its nuclear standoff with the US was approaching an "unpredictably difficult phase" as Japanese media reported the isolated communist state might be softening its stand on talks.

Underlining tensions on the divided peninsula, South Korea said its navy had fired warning shots yesterday after a North Korean patrol boat briefly crossed their disputed maritime border in the Yellow Sea.

North Korean parliament chief Kim Yong-nam commented on the nuclear standoff when he met Wu Bangguo, China's Communist Party No. 2, on Wednesday, the opening day of a goodwill visit to Pyongyang.

Kim "pointed out that the situation in Northeast Asia centring around the Korean Peninsula is reaching an unpredictably difficult phase due to the US invariable hostile policy" towards North Korea, the North's KCNA news agency said.

For his part Wu, China's parliament chief and its most senior leader to visit the impoverished and isolated North since then president Jiang Zemin in late 2001, urged improved relations on the Korean Peninsula.

"He said that the Chinese side supports the improvement of the relations between the north and the south of the Korean Peninsula and the realization of its independent and peaceful reunification," KCNA said.

Japanese media reports yesterday said that North Korea was no longer demanding a non-aggression treaty with the US and would settle instead for a letter of assurance on its security from US President George W. Bush.

Bush said this month that the US and its partners were all willing to sign a document, not a treaty, declaring "We won't attack you" so long as North Korea agreed to abandon its nuclear ambitions.

North Korea initially dismissed the proposal as "laughable" but said later it was prepared to consider it.

Yesterday's naval confrontation was quickly resolved when the North Korean vessel turned back. Seoul's Defense Ministry said it was believed to have crossed the maritime line while monitoring Chinese fishing vessels near rich crab-fishing grounds.

Nevertheless, with North Korea seemingly edging towards talks, any military action is closely watched.

Wu's visit has raised hopes that Beijing can persuade Pyongyang to attend a new round of six-party talks on the crisis.

China hosted an inconclusive round of talks in late August with North Korea, the US, South Korea, Japan and Russia to try to end the standoff.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue dismissed news reports that China had pressured North Korea to come to the negotiating table.

"We don't apply any kind of pressure in diplomacy," she told reporters in Beijing. "This is China's diplomatic style."

China needs more information about Taiwan, MAC says

By Melody Chen

STAFF REPORTER

Friday, Oct 31, 2003,Page 3

Giving the Chinese public greater access to information about Taiwan is urgent, but has been hampered by China's tight control of the media, Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen said yesterday.

"Smooth information exchanges can help China and Taiwan understand each other soundly," she said at a seminar discussing how non-governmental groups should conduct cross-strait cultural and educational activities.

Compared with the news about Taiwan that the Chinese public receives, the information Taiwanese audiences get about China is deeper and more complete, she said.

"The imbalance has had a negative impact on cross-strait relations," she said.

Governments on both sides should encourage more media exchanges, Tsai said.

The two sides' attitudes toward the media reflect basic differences in their politics and societies. The Chinese public's limited understanding of Taiwan, Tsai said, could hamper the progress of China's democratization.

More than 60 non-governmental organizations attended the seminar, hosted by the council in Hsinchu.

By September, more than 145,000 Chinese professionals had visited Taiwan since cross-strait exchanges were opened. More than 60 percent of these visitors were from cultural and educational backgrounds, Tsai said.

The number of Chinese professionals visiting Taiwan has grown rapidly. In 1992, about 1,000 Chinese professionals from cultural and educational backgrounds visited the country. Last year, the number climbed to more than 21,000, according to the council.

"The intensification of cross-strait cultural and educational exchanges did help both sides know more about each other. However, irregularities during these exchanges have considerably reduced the positive effects," Tsai said.

The papers the council gave to the seminar's participants provided a chronological account of more than 40 irregularities taking place during cross-strait cultural and educational exchanges over the past decade.

For example, in 2001, a Taiwanese education association's delegates joined a media seminar at China's Zhejiang University.

A university official crossed out words such as "national" and "central" from the Taiwanese delegates' papers, prompting protests from the delegates.

In 1993, two basketball teams from Liaoning and Hebei provinces visited Taiwan. Upon arrival at the CKS International Airport, they demanded Taiwan's national flags posted in the airport's pressroom be removed.

During 1998 and 1999, a Taiwanese university invited an academic from Beijing's Tsinghua University to give lectures. When staying here, the academic collected data about Taiwan's development of aerospace technology for the Chinese authorities.

"These irregularities violated the law ? and damaged our nation's dignity and interests," Tsai said.

China, Tsai noted, has treated these cross-strait exchanges as tools to achieve its unification with Taiwan.

President Chen set to depart for trip to New York, Panama

By Lin Chieh-yu

STAFF REPORTER

Friday, Oct 31, 2003,Page 3

President Chen Shui-bian is set to leave today on a seven-day trip to attend the celebration of Panama's 100th anniversary and to work on enhancing the trade relationship with allies in Central America.

With his 100-member entourage, Chen will travel on a special chartered China Airlines A-300-340 plane and make a two-night stopover in New York.

After he arrives in New York, he will be honored with an award from the International League for Human Rights. He also plans to pay tribute to late former first lady Soong Mayling, who died on Oct. 23.

"It is the president's fourth official diplomatic visit and the third time to transit in the United States," Presidential Office spokesman James Huang said. "The US government has again promised to welcome Taiwan's delegation by following the four principles of safety, convenience, comfort and dignity."

Huang stressed that Chen will travel to Soong's residence as soon as his special chartered flight arrives in New York's JFK airport this afternoon.

Huang said that due to the lack of international custom, the president will only present an ROC flag to honor Soong instead of personally draping the flag on her coffin.

Chen will attend a dinner banquet and award ceremony held by the International League for Human Rights at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel and make a 20-minute public speech after receiving the award in recognition of his life-long dedication to the international human rights movement and Taiwan's democratization.

"Chen will elaborate on the history of Taiwan's democratic and human rights development since the Kaohsiung Incident in 1979," Huang said.

During his stay in New York, Chen will have a luncheon with more than 20 members of Congress and meet with New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, New York City Council speaker Gifford Miller and New York State lawmakers.

Chen will leave for Panama on Sunday to attend the country's centennial celebration on Monday.

The president and his delegation is set return to Taiwan on Thursday.

Survey says nation more competitive

ECONOMY: A report by the World Economic Forum on growth competitiveness ranked Taiwan fifth among 102 countries, up one place from the survey last year

By Ko Shu-ling

STAFF REPORTER , WITH REUTERS

Friday, Oct 31, 2003,Page 1

Taiwan is the world's fifth-most competitive economy, according to a Global Competitiveness Report released yesterday, a ranking the Cabinet said proves that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)-led government's economic revitalization programs work.

"We're happy about the result but not at all content," Cabinet Spokesman Lin Chia-lung said yesterday. "We'll continue to push economy-boosting measures in the hope of creating another peak in our economic achievement."

According to the WEF, Taiwan ranked 10th in the growth competitiveness ranking in 2000, seventh in 2001 and sixth last year.

In the ranking for business competitiveness, Taiwan ranked 21st in 2000 and 2001. It rose to 16th last year and maintained the same place this year.

Finland was ranked the world's most competitive economy, followed by the US and Sweden.

Britain dropped four places to 15th and Canada fell off the top 10 list to stand 16th, both penalized for declines in the quality of their public institutions.

The survey among business leaders measured economic competitiveness based on a combination of technology, the quality of public institutions and the macroeconomic environment.

The US scored high on technology but was weak on the quality of its public institutions and economic environment, particularly public finances, where it ranked 50th.

After Taiwan, Singapore was Asia's best performing country. It moved into sixth place because of a sound economy and the quality of its public institutions.

Korea improved to 18th place from 25th due to signs of improving technology and a better economic environment, the report said.

China fell to 44th from 38th, marked by a drop in the perceived quality of its public institutions, with substantially lower scores on independence of its judiciary and corruption in the public sector, the WEF said.

"If there is one lesson from our exercise, it is that the strength and coherence of government policies have an enormous bearing on a country's ranking," Augusto Lopez-Claros, chief economist of the WEF, said in a statement.

World trade could leave Taiwan out in the cold

A month before the fifth WTO ministerial meeting at Cancun, Mexico, Joseph Stiglitz, winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize for economics and former vice president of the World Bank, said: "The Cancun round of WTO talks is a chance for developing countries to get a fairer deal. But don't count on that happening." His words unfortunately came true.

At the meeting, developing countries found themselves at odds with the US and EU, especially over agricultural issues. Thus the meeting ended in failure. This, another setback for the WTO after the 1999 Seattle meeting, shows that to achieve consensus in a gigantic organization of 146 economies is an extremely tough task in view of the many conflicting interests.

Failure at Cancun, however, does not signal the end of attempts to liberalize trade. With movement in the WTO talks unlikely in the short term, many countries are turning to bilateral or regional free-trade agreements. Shortly after the Cancun talks, China, for example, signed Closer Economic Partnership Agreements with Hong Kong on Sept. 29 and Macau on Oct. 17. Starting from next year, China will lift tariffs on 273 products made in Hong Kong and Macau, gradually making this region a free-trade area.

Moreover, China reached a deal with the 10 ASEAN countries in early this month, promising to abolish tariffs on as many as 600 items imported from Southeast Asia as part of the effort to establish a free-trade area. ASEAN leaders also signed the Bali Concord II to make the region a free-trade area as well as an EU-style economic community.

Provided the cooperation between China and ASEAN comes true, the market would represent a population of 1.8 billion and an annual production value of US$2 trillion, an enormous free-trade area on a par with the US and the EU. At the same time, Taiwan's attempts to forge free-trade agreements with other countries, including our long-time friend Singapore, have run aground.

Many worry that Taiwan will become marginalized. The closer economic ties built among other countries may not endanger our competitiveness and economic development in the near future. In the long run, however, such ties will change the comparative advantage of Taiwan relative to other countries, which, in turn, will have a great impact on our sectoral and trade structure and our role in the global and Asian economy. The Fubon Group's recent acquisition of Hong Kong-based International Bank of Asia indicates that businesses have sensed such a change in the future.

The global economy is undergoing a reshuffle. I fully understand Taiwan's difficult situation in the international community and the obstacles faced by our delegates in negotiations. However, if we take Taiwan's survival and development to heart, we have to seek breakthroughs and find our place in the new economic map.

Whether we like it or not, the key, as everyone knows, lies in cross-strait relations. People with different political stances shall find truth in the statement that without dealing with the relations with an active and pragmatic attitude, our future cannot be planned.

Kuan Chung-ming is director of the Institute of Economics at Academia Sinica.

Editorial: A difference of opinion

The debate over the referendum law reached another climax with the approval of the DPP and TSU's version of the draft law on Wednesday. Despite conveying the impression of an unprecedented consensus on the public's right to a referendum, the pan greens and pan blues are still poles apart in terms of what that right entails.

A comparison of the two versions of the draft submitted by the DPP-TSU camp and the KMT-PFP camp reveals that the pan blues are much more restrictive in several critical aspects. For one, the draft severely limits the permissible subject matters of the referendums, excluding the changing of the national flag and country name, as well as military, social welfare and national security issues. Under these circumstances, no wonder some people have jokingly asked, "What is left?"

Another major difference is the minimum number of signatures required to petition for the calling of a national referendum. The minimum ask by the DPP and TSU is 2 percent of all eligible voters, while the KMT and PFP ask for a much higher figure -- 5 percent. A benefit of this higher percentage is that frivolous issues not of national concern can be screened out in the process, so as to avoid wasting time and money. It should not be forgotten that the people of Taiwan have a feverish enthusiasm for political participation, making political mobilization in this small nation easier to begin with, and that a large number of the population hold a particular political party affiliation or loyalty. Put together, these make obtaining the minimum number of signatures less difficult than elsewhere in the world.

An even more noteworthy difference in the two drafts of the law is this -- the DPP-TSU version accords the Executive Yuan the right to initiate referendums, while the KMT-PFP version does not. According to Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou, putting this sort of responsibility in the hands of the Cabinet disrupts the balance of power between the executive and legislative branch.

The problem is, in most other countries where people's referendum rights are acknowledged, both the people and the government have initiative rights. Now if the DPP-TSU version gave the government exclusive initiative rights, then Ma's accusation that the public's rights are being encroached would make sense. However, the pan greens are actually seeking an additional channel through which referendums may be called or initiated.

Reportedly, Ma claims that the DPP-TSU draft would allow the Executive Yuan to call for a referendum with the approval of a majority of the votes caste in the Legislative Yuan, while currently the Constitution mandates that the Legislative Yuan may override a veto by the Cabinet if it is backed by a majority of lawmakers.

Ma's fear seems to be that the lower threshold for approval by the Legislative Yuan for holding a referendum could cause the Executive Yuan to resort to referendums each time it seeks to veto a law passed by the legislature. This scenario is, of course, a grave concern for the pan blues, which continue to enjoy a legislative majority and have consistently used that majority to hobble the government's policy implementation.

Executive Yuan Spokesperson Lin Chia-lung has denied that a lower threshold is provided for in the draft version approved by the Executive Yuan. The two camps will have to offer additional clarifications on this point before meaningful debate can continue.

Finally, it should not be forgotten there is no higher threshold than the approval by a majority of voters once an issue is put to vote through a referendum. Moreover, unless it has no regard for its own political accountability and credibility, the Executive Yuan would not randomly call referendums without due cause. Ma should have no cause for concern.

Lien ready to sell out Taiwan

Watch out, voters of March 2004! If you vote for Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan, your vote will be wasted because China will welcome Lien only as the KMT chairman even if he is elected president.

Lien will implement his "one China" policy -- not for the ROC but for the PRC. He will become the Special Administrative Region (SAR) chief executive of Taiwan, like Tung Chee-hwa's role in Hong Kong, and James Soong will become the SAR vice chief executive.

The two China-born politicians will become China's politicians in charge of the Taiwan SAR. Taiwan's politics and economy will be marginalized and controlled by Beijing. The freedom and democracy Taiwanese have been enjoying for the last 15 years or so will come to an abrupt end.

Economic and technological advantages Taiwanese have accumulated over the years will be lost overnight.

China was chased into space

The recent space launch by China may highlight its technology, but it also shows the cracks in its system.

In China's would-be worker's paradise, leaders are becoming rich while the working class is told to abort their children because there is no room for them.

Its government threatens Taiwan not because it is a military threat, but because its people speak and worship freely. While Confucianism and democracy thrive on Taiwan, China enters space trying to convince itself that it is not what it is -- a corrupt, totalitarian state.

During the Cold War, the US raced the Soviet Union to the moon to show the world what free and democratic people were capable of. China is being chased there by demons of its own making.

End of an era

There are conflicting reports about the Soong and Chiang families these days. I greatly admire the courage of the Taipei Times for its editorial ("So long and good riddance," Oct. 27, page 8).

For those eager to learn more, they should read Soong Dynasty by Sterling Seagrave.

Going around in circles

We are surely in an era in which communication thrives. But it's a different ball game when it comes to communicating with the Chinese authorities.

Academic Sincia President Lee Yuan-tseh, President Chen Shui-bian's special emissary to APEC, called for re-opening the cross-strait dialogue during the summit. When Lee conveyed Chen's willingness to resume dialogue to Chinese President Hu Jintao, he received a reply that would carry the two nations nowhere. Hu simply said that any further progress should be based on the "one China" principle. This is a typical example of a breakdown in communications.

Take a closer look at the "one China" principle. The controversial part of the principle is that talks on an equal-footing between the two countries should be based on the very fact that neither belongs to the other. That way, the two sides can play fair and square.

The way Beijing plays the game, we can conclude that the "one China" principle is just a way, other than military action, to take us down, since Beijing views Taiwan as one of its provinces.

Maybe it's time to have a different interpretation of the "one China" principle that Beijing is so obsessed with. "One China" could mean that there only exists one country called China. Therefore we should no longer call ourselves the "Republic of China," but use "Taiwan" as our official name. So the next round of cross-strait talks could be held between "China and Taiwan."

Of course, Hu is unlikely to accept the fact we are already a name away from being fully independent.

Although there are no obvious signs to indicate which side will reconcile first, we should be assured that with our resolved leaders, Taiwan shall prevail. The silver lining is just a name away.