Lee fears exile if Chen loses poll

GLOOMY PROSPECT: The former president said Chen's losing the election would pave the way for China to undermine the country and that the only solution would be to flee

By Chang Yun-Ping

STAFF REPORTER

Saturday, Nov 01, 2003,Page 1

 Former president Lee Teng-hui said yesterday he would have go into exile if President Chen Shui-bian's re-election bid fails.

"If Chen loses power, Taiwan will be further disturbed by Communist China, and at that point, everyone will have to flee the country for their lives," Lee said.

Lee spoke at the establishment of a national federation of private social groups supporting Chen's bid for re-election.

"There were people here chanting `Long Live Hu Jintao' during the Double Ten Day celebration. What would Taiwan become if Chen loses power and Communist China undermines this country?" Lee asked.

Lee said he would lead a rally of about 1 million people on Feb. 28 to support Chen's campaign.

Lee, convener of the federation, said Taiwan must do three things to forge a national identity: change the country's name from Republic of China to Taiwan, pass a referendum law and adopt a new constitution.

"The March presidential election will be a critical battle to determine whether Taiwan is further democratized by the continuation of the local power of the DPP. Only by supporting President Chen will Taiwan's people be able to continue running their own country and prevent the comeback of a foreign regime," he said.

Lee said he should have started to push for these goals in 2000. Lee said that after the 2000 election, however, he left the KMT because he realized the party would never push for these things.

The federation was established by pro-Taiwan independence groups including the Friends of Lee Teng-hui, the Presbyterian Church of Taiwan, World United Formosans for Independence, the Taiwan Solidarity Union and the Alliance to Campaign for Rectifying the Name of Taiwan.

The threat in China's space race

China launched Shenzhou V, its first manned spacecraft, for a mission of 14 orbits on Oct. 14. Astronaut Yang Liwei landed smoothly in Inner Mongolia 21 hours later. Putting a man into space is a milestone for China's space program, which started before 1960, the year in which the first modern spacecraft was launched. China's first satellite, which transmitted China's Communist Party (CCP) anthem "The East is Red," was launched in 1970. With technical assistance from the US, China has developed reliable space launch and satellite recovery capabilities from 1985. By Oct. 2000, China had developed and launched dozens of commercial satellites, with a flight success rate of over 90 percent.

The unmanned Shenzhou I (SZ-1, or Divine Vessel 1) was launched and recovered on Nov. 20 and Nov. 21, 1999. The SZ-3 was launched on March 24 last year and recovered on April 1 that year. It left the forward module in orbit, carrying a sophisticated remote-sensing payload, which transmitted high-quality data to Chinese monitoring stations.

According to Bill Gertz of The Washington Times, Shenzhou V also carried a new military intelligence-gathering satellite, which was placed into orbit shortly after the SZ-5 began its mission. In addition, the SZ-5 is reported to have conducted photographic surveillance using a 1.6m resolution infrared camera.

China has an ambitious space program with an annual budget of US$2 billion. In 1999 the government created the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) to oversee national defense and aerospace endeavors.

Over 130 organizations fall under the CASC, including five research academies, two large research and manufacturing firms and a number of research institutes, factories, and companies in which CASC has shares. CASC has about 110,000 employees, and although it has general responsibility for manned space flights and the Long March-series rockets, it is the PLA which controls China's space program, specifically the Second Artillery Corp -- China's nuclear strike force.

China plans to build and put into orbit its own space station. Ouyang Ziyuan, chief scientist of China's moon exploration program, has stated: "China is expected to complete its first exploration of the moon in 2010 and will establish a base on the moon." Huang Chunping, chief of the Long March rocket program, has declared that, "China has the capacity within three to four years to walk on the moon. In 15 years China will match the world's top level of space technology."

Many commentators have raised the question of why China wants to put a man on the moon when the country has problems in feeding and clothing all its people. China has myriad pressing challenges such as high unemployment and poverty in rural areas, insolvent state banks, environmental degradation, rampant corruption and social unrest.

So why not give priority to economic development, respect human rights and generally improve its people's quality of life?

The answer lies in the aggrieved nationalism deeply ingrained in the Chinese psyche. All Chinese are indoctrinated by the education system to believe that the Chinese are a unique race, all non-Chinese are essentially barbarians and that China is the center of the world.

China must develop economic wealth and military power so it can exact retribution from the foreign powers which have humiliated China for over a century following the Opium War. No PLA officer or PRC official can retain his or her position without paying homage to this obsessive Chinese nationalism.

Given this background, Beijing's pursuit of a robust and long-term space program is actually a rational decision to garner economic, political and military benefits. Economically, the CASC employs more than 40,000 researchers, academics and other technical staff, preventing brain drain from the critical human resource sector.

China hopes the success of Shenzhou V may trigger renewed interest in its commercial satellite-launch industry.

The aura of technological prowess may also encourage direct foreign investment from countries such as Singapore and Taiwan.

Since the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989, the CCP has lost its "mandate from Heaven." Communist ideology no longer has any credibility. Beijing's rule is now based on two things: the promise of rising standards of living as a trade-off for lack of freedom, and appeals to nationalism. A manned spacecraft not only earns prestige abroad, it also makes the Chinese people feel proud of their country. This national pride "vindicates" the communist system and enhances the party's legitimacy.

By far the most important justification for China's space program, however, is based in the military arena.

China has studied US military performance in the 1991 Gulf War and the campaigns in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq. US battlefield dominance is due to its advanced C4ISR capabilities (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance), which in turn rely on military satellites.

Space-based military assets are thus both the US' strength and its Achilles heel.

To realize its ambition to become a regional hegemon and thereafter to challenge US dominance of the world, China must catch up to this revolution in military affairs and learn to destroy US military assets in space. So a momentous long-term arms race in space has started.

For Taiwan, the impact of China's space program is more immediate and threatening.

PLA doctrine is to take Taiwan by a surprise, multi-pronged attack, including information warfare and massive missile attacks. This would be followed by bombing, a naval blockade, occupation of air bases and ports by airborne and air-mobile forces, together with special operations by forces already deployed on the island and those deployed after the onset of the attack. If necessary, there would also be an amphibious assault.

The objective is to subjugate Taiwan and secure a fait accompli before the US can intervene. China's space program will greatly improve the chances of success for this "rapid war, rapid resolution" strategy.

Between 2005 and 2010, China's space-based surveillance infrastructure could include synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites for all-weather, day-night monitoring of military activities; electronic reconnaissance satellites to detect electronic emissions in the western Pacific; and mid-to-high resolution electro-optical satellites for early warning, targeting and mission planning. SAR and electronic reconnaissance satellites would detect and track naval activity, such as carrier battle groups and submarines.

In addition, China is constructing 20 differential global positioning system stations along its eastern seaboard that could enhance the accuracy of the PLA's 650 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) targeting Taiwan.

The SRBMs, augmented by medium-range ballistic missiles and land-attack cruise missiles, could provide the PLA with a significant advantage in a future conflict with Taiwan, and also place US forces at risk should a decision be made to intervene.

So what can Taiwan do to cope with the PLA's growing military capability?

In addition to improving combat readiness through regular and realistic military exercises and the training of reserve forces, the most important countermeasures are a solid C4I infrastructure and robust passive defenses.

Passive defenses include deception, hardening and dispersal of military assets as well as redundancy (of air base runways, for example).

An effective civil defense, including educating the public about personal risk in a time of war and protective measures, will help prevent panic and the collapse of morale. A vigorous campaign to build up the national will to defend Taiwan's freedom and sovereignty is vital and urgently needed.

A PLA blitzkrieg may precipitate a strategic paralysis of Taiwan. But this does not necessarily mean capitulation. If properly prepared, Taiwan could recover from the initial attacks and persevere until help arrives.

As the PLA gains confidence that it can bring about Taiwan's surrender in a matter of days, the temptation to strike becomes increasingly attractive. Taipei's negligent posture toward national defense compounds this danger.

To maintain the status quo Taiwan must give top priority to its national defense and demonstrate by concrete action the nation's resolve to preserve its de facto independence.

Li Thian-hok is a freelance writer based in Pennsylvania.

US congressmen heap praise on Chen

NEW YORK VISIT: The US House of Representatives voted unanimously to welcome the Taiwanese president, calling the nation one of its closest allies in the Asia-Pacific region

By Charles Snyder

STAFF REPORTER IN WASHINGTON

Saturday, Nov 01, 2003,Page 3

"Our brave friend President Chen leads an island of hope, a light shining out from dark shadows of an oppressive tyranny."

－Tom DeLay, leader of the US House of Representatives

Congressmen heaped praise on President Chen Shui-bian and on Taiwan as the US House of Representatives voted 416-0 Thursday evening to welcome Chen to the US in advance of his transit visit to New York.

"Our brave friend President Chen leads an island of hope, a light shining out from dark shadows of an oppressive tyranny," House Majority Leader Tom DeLay said on the House floor as the chamber discussed the House resolution welcoming Chen.

"With this resolution we will tell the citizens of that shining island that we see their light on the horizon and know the sun of freedom is rising over the Pacific."

The "sense of Congress" resolution, which speaks of "more than 50 years of an iron-clad relationship" between the Washington and Taipei governments, offers its "warmest welcome" to Chen, calls the visit "a significant step toward broadening and deepening the friendship and cooperation between the United States and China," and thanks Chen and Taiwan for their humanitarian and medical assistance in Afghanistan and post-war Iraq, plus Taiwan's "willingness to contribute to the peace, stability and prosperity in the Middle East."

It also congratulates Chen on the human rights award he was to receive from the International League for Human Rights last night, and asks Chen to communicate to Taiwan the support of Congress and the American people.

Tom Lantos, the top Democrat on the House International Relations Committee and co-chair of the Congressional Human Rights Caucus, praised Taiwan as "one of our closest allies in the Asia-Pacific region," and said he looked forward to meeting Chen in New York this weekend.

"If Taiwan were any other nation, President Chen would be welcomed with a [White House] Rose Garden ceremony, a state dinner and the opportunity to address a joint session of Congress," he said in his floor remarks.

"These honors would be commensurate with the increasingly close and mutually beneficial relationship between our two countries," Lantos said.

He and other congressmen also reiterated their strong support for Taiwan's participation in the work of the World Health Organization and other international organizations.

Eleven members spoke or presented written comments in praise of Chen and Taiwan, including three of the co-chairs of the Congressional Taiwan Caucus.

Contrasting modern Taiwan with the days of martial law under the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), caucus co-chair Sherrod Brown, said: "That miracle, that road to progress, that road to democracy was in large part because of the courage and the fervor for human rights exerted by people like Chen Shui-bian, who sacrificed a great deal of his life, his family's life and much of his time on this earth to bring Taiwan forward."

"He and his political party, the DPP [Democratic Progressive Party], have done a miraculous job in helping to create the miracle that we know as Taiwan. It is a country that we should look at as a model for much of the rest of the world," he said.

The House resolution, introduced by the four caucus co-chairmen, also praises Taiwan for its "unequivocal support for human rights and a commitment to the democratic ideals of freedom of speech, freedom of the press, rule of law, and fair elections."

The resolution is similar to the measure passed without objection by the House in May 2001 in advance of Chen's last trip to New York, in which he met Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, visited the New York Stock Exchange and had dinner with a large group of congressmen.

The Senate did not pass a similar resolution then, and has no plans to pass one this time, congressional aides say.

Small group of officials bids farewell to the president

By Chang Yun-Ping

STAFF REPORTER , WITH CNA

Saturday, Nov 01, 2003,Page 3

President Chen Shui-bian was seen off by only a small array of family and officials yesterday when he departed on a seven-day diplomatic trip amid the furor triggered by Chinese National Party (KMT) chairman Lien Chan's return to Taiwan on Monday, when 60 KMT and People First Party legislators paralyzed the legislature by attending Lien's welcoming reception at CKS airport.

Bidding farewell to Chen were First Lady Wu Shu-chen, Vice President Annette Lu, Democratic Progressive Party Sec-retary-General Chang Chun-hsiung (張俊雄), Presidential Office Secretary-General Chiou I-jen, Deputy Secretary-General Chen Che-nan, Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials and the head of the foreign diplomatic corps.

Chen said he had told the presidents of the five branches of government that they have their own duties and need not come to the airport. He added that he hopes that the presidents of the five government branches, the minister of national defense and the chief of the general staff will in future no longer be required to see the president off.

Leading a 100-member entourage, Chen yesterday left Taiwan for New York on a two-night transit stop on his way to a state visit to Panama, where he is slated to attend the country's centennial celebrations and promote trade relations with allies in Central America.

Chen is expected to exchange notes with Panamanian President Mireya Moscoso on a free trade agreement signed by the two leaders in Taipei on Aug. 21.

During the two-day stopover in New York, Chen will receive this year's Human Rights Award from the International League for Human Rights and pay tribute to former first lady Soong Mayling, who died in her Manhattan residence on Oct. 23.

Chen said that "the concerted efforts of Taiwan's people and their love of democracy, freedom and human rights," have enabled him to receive the award, adding that the honor belongs to all people of Taiwan.

The entourage departed CKS International Airport at 11am via a chartered China Airlines plane.

Cross-strait crime fight hindered by politicking

The recent kidnapping of a China-based Taiwanese businessman in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, who was later released after a ransom was paid, provides another example of how Chinese and Taiwanese criminals work together to commit crime across the Taiwan Strait.

Cross-strait exchanges have grown substantially in business and other areas compared to 10 years ago. Along with this, crime has seen a dramatic increase in both amount and complexity. However, cooperation between Chinese and Taiwanese law enforcement agencies is limited. We need a mechanism that enables authorities to work together to deter Chinese and Taiwanese criminals from colluding with each other.

The problem is that, compared with other cross-strait affairs, the extent of exchange and cooperation between public security organizations is conservative and insufficient. Taiwanese police officers are still prohibited by law from travelling to China. Visits to family members there are also strictly regulated. Exchanges only happen at an academic level or through private organizations. As a result, efforts to stamp out crime cannot match criminal cross-strait collaboration, leaving it a blind spot for public security.

Taiwan's law enforcement agencies find it difficult to continue with investigations once they realize that cases are related to China. Some grassroots police officers told me that cases usually come to a halt if their leads point to China. That's what happened in a case last year in which more than 400 day-care centers in central and southern Taiwan were blackmailed into sending money to a Chinese bank in Kunming, Yunnan Province.

Communications are directed through the crime detection section of the Criminal Investigation Bureau, a method that can be used but not talked about. So, except for major cases or those handled by the bureau, cooperation with Chinese agencies is unlikely.

Predictably, due to the lack of official means of cooperation and communication with China, law enforcement agencies will not be able to stop cross-strait crimes, which are increasing persistently in both quantity and complexity. If the public security authorities on both sides fail to speed up cooperation, they will also miss opportunities to take preemptive measures and prevent crime, thus making cross-strait collaboration a gold mine for criminal groups.

The problem is, despite progress in cross-strait cooperation on crime issues, advances in establishing cooperation mechanisms are very limited under current political structures. The biggest obstacle is politics. Reality demands law enforcement agencies on both sides work together, yet they cannot encourage exchanges or cooperate in investigations due to political factors.

Based on my experience, when concrete attempts at cooperation take place, a flood of petty political maneuvering also gets underway, creating difficulties for police and embarrassment for all. In other words, during a joint effort to deter crime, political factors often weigh so heavily upon the process that professional efforts to investigate crimes are impaired.

Both Beijing and Taipei are responsible for enabling each other's law enforcement agencies to work together to tackle crime. If the two governments can not stop the corrupting influence of politics on law enforcement, further major criminal activity will be the result. When this happens, blaming each other will be useless to investigations.

Yang Yung-nane is a professor and director of the department of administrative management at Central Police University.

China-based students shun summer programs

BY MELODY CHEN

STAFF REPORTER

Saturday, Nov 01, 2003,Page 2

Only a tiny portion of China-based Taiwanese students are interested in summer programs designed by the government to salvage their knowledge about their home country, a Mainland Affairs Council report showed yesterday.

Every summer, the council and the Ministry of Education provided short-term programs for students returning from two schools established for China-based Taiwanese businesspeople's children, in Guandong and Jiangsu provinces.

Powerless to stop China from removing contents referring to Taiwan's national identity from the students' textbooks, the government decided to bring these students home to teach them about their country through the summer programs.

Council Vice Chairman Johnnasson Liu said yesterday that although the government tolerated China's deleting certain contents from the students' textbooks, it would never allow China to add anything to the books.

A majority of the summer sessions are titled "Understanding Taiwan" and "Civilians." Last year, the program was divided into two parts, targeting first and second graders from the junior-high level of the two schools.

With more than 1,500 students studying at the kindergarten- through-senior-high-school level, only 272 pupils registered for the courses last year, the report said.

The students had to pay tuition for the courses. The first graders were given two-week-long courses and the second graders' program lasted three days.

The full-day courses for the first graders ran from 8am to 10pm. The students spent 29 hours on the "Understanding Taiwan" sessions and 16 hours on the "Civilians" subject. Two days were spent on sightseeing trips.

This past summer, no programs were offered because of the SARS epidemic.

Is the government confident that these brief programs can really fill the gaps in the students' education about Taiwan's national identity, when most of the China-based students did not register for the courses?

Admitting that the programs have been "less than satisfactory," Liu said the government would try to strengthen the courses.

"We cannot force the students to take the courses. We can only encourage them to join," Liu said.

"What we intend to teach during the programs are the contents China blotted out in their textbooks," he said.

Liu said it is not necessary for the students return to Taiwan to take the courses every summer.

"It would be good if a student could join the programs twice during the nine years between the start of elementary school and the completion of junior high," he said.

Dual nationality helping fugitives flee from justice

LAWMAKER'S WARNING: TSU legislators met with Ministry of Justice officials to discuss how several high-profile suspects have been able to evade police

By Jimmy Chuang

STAFF REPORTER

Saturday, Nov 01, 2003,Page 2

The government's recognition of dual nationality could hinder law-enforcement officials' efforts to track down criminals, according to Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) Legislator Lo Chih-ming.

"More and more criminals or suspects have taken advantage of having a second passport to leave the country when they realized they were wanted," Lo said yesterday. "I was told that our law-enforcement officers could not do anything about this. This is a serious problem."

Lo said the lack of judicial-cooperation relations with other countries also creates problems because Taiwanese officials have no jurisdiction outside the country.

"That means even if fugitives are caught in a foreign country, we will have difficulties getting them back for trial," Lo said.

Lo made his remarks at a press conference after TSU lawmakers met with Vice Minister of Justice Yen Da-ho and other Ministry of Justice officials to discuss the cases of several well-known people who hold second passports and fled the country because of legal difficulties, including former Kuo-feng Construction Co president Chung Tai-lang and former Kaohsiung City Council speaker Chu An-hsiung.

Chung was involved in the 1992 Sipiantou scandal, which involved a project to build water-pumping station in Taipei County. He fled to Japan on a Dominican Republic passport, reportedly a fake, on Dec. 7, 1995, as prosecutors investigated him.

The Panchiao District Prosecutors' Office later indicted Chung on charges of bribery, breach of trust and corruption and suggested a 16-year sentence. He remains a fugitive and is reported to be in Canada.

Chu was convicted for bribery and was sentenced to 22 months in jail. He was supposed to report to the Kaohsiung District Prose-cutors' Office to begin his jail sentence on Oct. 16 but he never showed up.

Many people believed that Chu is in Zhuhai, China, but there are rumors that he might be in Australia since he also possesses Australian citizenship.

The question of dual nationality has also been raised in the Chung Hsing Bills Finance case, which prosecutors are re-investigating.

An interrogation session for Chen Pi-yun, the sister-in-law of People First Party Chairman James Soong's, has been scheduled for next Wednesday, but Lo yesterday questioned whether Chen will show up.

"She is a US citizen and living in Honolulu, Hawaii. To me, I think she has perfect reasons for not coming back. If that is the case, I believe our prosecutors will have a hard time investigating the case," Lo said.

According to the Ministry of Justice, the US is the only country which has an official judicial-cooperation relationship with Taiwan.

The ministry said that under the "Agreement on Criminal Justice Cooperation" with the US, judicial officials of both countries will help combat cross-national crimes, including drug-related crimes, money laundering, economic crimes, Internet crimes and so on.

The agreement also facilitates Taiwan's providing assistance to Washington in the fight against terrorism.

The ministry is working on a prison inmate exchange agreement with Thailand but no significant progress has been made so far.

A welcome shot in the arm

Taiwan was listed as the number-one country in Asia in terms of overall competitiveness in the 2003-2004 Global Competitiveness Report released this week by the World Economic Forum (WEF). Globally, Taiwan ranks fifth. The main reason for Taiwan's high ranking among the 102 countries listed is that it performed very well in the technological arena, ranking third in the world behind the US and Finland. Taiwan's high ranking in the report has swept away the gloom caused by several years of economic downturn and concern about long-term economic sluggishness and higher unemployment. It has also discredited those singing the demise of Taiwan's economy.

In 2000, Taiwan's overall competitiveness ranked 11th globally. The country then leapt to seventh place in 2001, and then to fifth last year and this year. There has been continual progress. Beating Japan and Singapore in particular is no small achievement. Feelings of satisfaction and vindication aside, the results of the WEF evaluation need to be carefully studied, defects found in Taiwan's performance and the government and political parties called upon to rectify them.

Although Taiwan has been strong on the technological front, there is still much room for improvement. After several years of joint efforts by both ruling and opposition parties, Taiwan has achieved impressive results in IT and high-tech industries.

Taiwan commands a niche in the global market for high-tech products such as notebook and desktop computers, computer accessories, display panels, liquid crystal display monitors, disk drives, wireless products and mobile phones. Particularly noteworthy is the domination of the global chip foundry industry by Taiwan Semi-conductor Manufacturing Co and United Microelectronics Corp.

However, Taiwan's industries are still relying on other people's production systems, components and technologies. Even though original equipment manufacturing chip production has reached high standards, Taiwanese firms cannot participate in the setting of specifications. Their influence in global technology industries is limited, and they lack brand names of their own -- a problem that has been debated for a long time.

Even though Taiwan is viewed internationally as Asia's leader in terms of research and development capabilities, China pumped almost US$60 billion into research and development in 2001 -- the third-largest amount in the world after the US and Japan, according to a study by the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development. The large Chinese investment was sourced not only from local Chinese firms but also from foreign enterprises as well. This is an indicator of China's research and development potential in the technology sector. Neither the government nor the private sector should underestimate the possible threat posed by the other side of the Taiwan Strait in respect to technology industries.

The brilliant performance of Taiwan's private enterprises -- including in technology indices and the subtlety of business operations and strategies -- has garnered a positive evaluation from the WEF. However, despite some improvement, Taiwan's standing remains relatively slack in government efficiency, its economic and business environments and its credit rating.

While the administration has some soul-searching to do, all in all, Taiwan's high ranking in the WEF report has been a welcome shot in the arm for Taiwan's economy. Rather than engaging in a war of words, the government and opposition parties should work at fortifying the economy so that Taiwan's competitiveness can grow further and that standards of living may improve.