Japan to purchase missile-defense system from US

REUTERS , TOKYO

Saturday, Dec 20, 2003,Page 1

Japan said yesterday it would buy a US-made missile defense system and conduct a review of its defense capabilities in a move that could unnerve other Asian countries.

Domestic support for the introduction of a missile defense system, mooted since North Korea sent a ballistic missile over Japan in 1998, has grown over the past year because of Pyongyang's nuclear program.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda announced the decision to endorse a Defense Agency proposal on missile defense after a meeting of Japan's Security Council.

"There is no intent to harm other countries. This is a completely defensive system," Fukuda told a news conference.

The government planned to complete the defense review and a medium-term defense equipment plan by the end of next year, he said, giving no details on the review, other than to say it would take into account the current security environment.

One topic may be Japan's self-imposed ban on arms exports, which must be modified if Tokyo wants to push ahead with its joint development of a next-generation missile defense system with the US.

Fukuda told reporters on Thursday that the ban was a subject for future discussion.

The first stage of the two-part missile defense system Japan intends to buy consists of Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) systems that could be fired at missiles in mid-course from Japan's four existing high-tech AEGIS destroyers.

The second line of defense would be provided by ground-to-air Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missiles, upgrading the PAC-2 system the armed forces already possess.

The Defense Agency estimates the system will cost ?700 billion (US$6.5 billion) over five years, Kyodo news agency said, adding that the government would earmark around ?100 billion for the project in next year's budget.

The system will be partially deployed in 2007 and fully operational by 2011, the daily Mainichi Shimbun said yesterday. The Defense Agency said it could not confirm the dates.

Moves towards a more independent defense posture tend to spark nervous reactions from Japan's Asian neighbors, some of which suffered under Tokyo's colonial rule before and during World War II.

Japan's launch of two spy satellites in March this year to keep an eye on North Korea, drew complaints from Pyongyang that it would set off a regional arms race.

Japan's close cooperation with the US over missile defense may also put pressure on its sometimes tense relations with China.

"The Chinese have a number of concerns over the US efforts to develop a missile defense system," said Robert Karniol, Asia-Pacific editor of Jane's Defence Weekly.

"One is that it threatens to negate the Chinese nuclear deterrent force. Another is that it has potential application over the conflict in Taiwan," he added.

Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba visited China earlier this year in an attempt to reassure Beijing that the missile program would be purely defensive.

He denied yesterday that the system risked infringing Japan's ban on "collective self-defense," part of the Constitution that prohibits it even from helping allies if they come under attack.

Referendum Law request turned down

SHOWDOWN: In a vote seen as unusually quick, the legislature vetoed a reconsideration request from the Executive Yuan on 12 articles of the law

By Fiona Lu

STAFF REPORTER

Saturday, Dec 20, 2003,Page 1

In an unexpectedly fast vote, the pan-blue controlled Legislative Yuan yesterday vetoed the Executive Yuan's request that lawmakers reconsider aspects of the newly passed Referendum Law.

The proposed reconsiderations of various articles in the Referendum Law, including of Article 16, which empowers the legislature to initiate referendums on a vote by a majority of lawmakers, were defeated after 118 legislators voted against them.

As a result of the legislature's maintaining the original text of the law, lawmakers will continue to be able to initiate referendums, while their administrative counterparts will have no power to make referendum initiatives.

Lawmakers also vetoed an administration proposal to eliminate the referendum supervisory committee that is stipulated in the law. The committee was established in the law by the pan-blue parties to allow a way to screen referendum topics.

After the vote, the Executive Yuan expressed its disappointment with the result, saying that it hoped lawmakers would rectify problems in the law as soon as possible. The Executive Yuan maintained that both the ruling and opposition parties admit that there are significant problems with the law as written.

"The Cabinet will pursue three measures to rectify the Law," said Lin chia-lung, the Cabinet spokesman. "These measures will include applying for a Constitutional interpretation of the law, proposing amendments to the law, and holding a referendum on the law."

Premier Yu Shyi-kun reported to the legislature on the reconsideration proposal that the executive had submitted.

Yu said that some of the articles in the Referendum Law passed on Nov. 27 infringe on constitutional principles and produce difficulties with implementing referendums.

"Article 16 of the Referendum Law, which entitles lawmakers to file referendums on major policy questions, goes beyond the legislative power that is established in the constitution," Yu said. "The ability of lawmakers to initiate referendums encroaches on administrative power and interferes with the balance of power between the top two government branches."

Yu also said that the proposed referendum supervisory committee, composed of representatives of the political parties, runs counter to the spirit of direct democracy.

Yu said that the structure of the referendum supervisory committee, whereby committee seats will be apportioned according to how many legislative seats each party holds, made the committee a copy of the legislature. He also said that the committee's power to have the ultimate say on referendum petitions filed by the people has placed the legislature above the rule of direct democracy.

The 223-seat legislature acted with unusual suddenness on the reconsideration request, which had been submitted by the Executive Yuan last Friday. The vote came a week earlier than had been discussed by legislative leaders during a Thursday multiparty negotiation on the reconsideration request.

On the initiative of the People First Party, majority lawmakers decided to bring the reconsideration request to a vote by the end of yesterday's legislative sitting.

The sudden change in the legislative agenda frustrated the administration and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmakers.

In Estonia, an example for Taiwan to draw on

By Mart Laanemets

Saturday, Dec 20, 2003,Page 8

The current political situation in Taiwan reminds me of Baltic countries 12 to 15 years ago.

At the end of the 1980s, after former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms, democratic movements grew throughout the vast Soviet empire. Baltic countries, including my homeland of Estonia, were among the first to see these movements develop.

The Communist Party in Estonia was quickly losing its authority. Most of its clever top officials started to change their colors. The Party for the National Independence of Estonia was formed in 1988 and declared that restoring the status of Estonia as a fully independent country was its ultimate goal. A Moscow-backed democratic movement, the People's Front, opposed it and called for the support of Gorbachev and a kind of autonomy within the Soviet Union.

In these critical years the pro-independence forces took the political initiative and gained the people's support. They initiated and successfully executed a campaign registering Estonian citizens, including overseas Estonians, to distinguish them from Russian migrants who had settled in Estonia in massive numbers over the decades of Soviet rule. In this way a new legislature was formed with the exclusive right to decide the status of the Estonian nation. In 1990, Estonia's citizens elected the Estonian Congress, an alternative to the pro-Soviet Supreme Council legislative body.

The rhetoric of the Peoples' Front criticized the "radical" nationalists and Estonians were warned "not to provoke Moscow." But with the success of the pro-independence forces, they, and even the Estonian branch of the Communist Party, came to support full independence for the country.

Despite heavy criticism from within and outside Estonia, pro-independence forces were always several steps ahead of current events. This, together with their courage and resolve, meant that Estonia was prepared for the decisive moment that arrived in August 1991, when the conservative wing of the Communist Party in Moscow staged a coup in an attempt to eliminate Gorbachev and take power. As we know, that plan failed, but it spelled the end for Gorbachev as well. The new leadership, with Boris Yeltsin at the helm, took power in Russia.

During those critical days, the Estonian Congress and Supreme Council achieved a consensus and declared Estonia an independent republic. Yeltsin's new government in Moscow, needing any support it could find, quickly recognized it, as it did for Latvia and Lithuania. Other countries elsewhere in the world followed, including China. One month later, the three Baltic countries were admitted into the UN.

Similar processes are now taking place in Taiwan. Despite all of the diplomatic rhetoric, anybody who reflects carefully on the matter must acknowledge that, in the longer term, Taiwan has no alternative but to bring about de jure independence, and that it is only a matter of time before the communist regime in China collapses.

So, in the light of the Baltic experience, it is clear that President Chen Shui-bian's program promoting referendums, a new constitution and government reform is clever and far-sighted and serves the needs of the Taiwanese people. The nation must prepare carefully for the future, now that independence is growing more likely.

On the other hand, based on the Baltic experience, we also acknowledge that this opportunity depends on the attitude of Beijing. There is no doubt that the world, including the US and the UN, will recognize Taiwan's independence only after Beijing has done so. And Beijing will do this only when it is profitable for its leadership to do so, as was the case for Moscow and the Baltic countries.

Mart Laanemets is a Taipei-based academic and freelance reporter.

China has a `sudden strike' plan

MILITARY THREAT: The DPP yesterday published a report claiming that China could paralyze Taiwan's command system in seven minutes

By Chang Yun-ping

STAFF REPORTER

Saturday, Dec 20, 2003,Page 3

"Taiwan will never be able to compete with China's military expansion ? We should move some of the money budgeted for defensive missile capabilities to the development of pre-emptive missile-strike capabilities."

－Lee Wen-chung, DPP legislator

China's top military strategy against Taiwan is a sudden strike that will paralyze air force defenses without giving the US sufficient time to come to Taiwan's aid, according to a report released by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) yesterday.

The party's China Affairs Department published a report on China's basic military capabilities in which it is said that Beijing has developed a "sudden strike" strategy to attack Taiwan.

Such an attack would consist of an initial "seven minute shock and strike" missile barrage to paralyze Taiwan's command system, followed by 17 minutes in which Taiwan's air space will be invaded by fighter jets. Within 24 hours of the strike 258,000 Chinese troops could be deployed in Taiwan.

According to the report, prepared by the Institute for Taiwan Defense and Strategic Studies, Taiwan will have less than five minutes to respond to such a strike, the ultimate goal of which would be to prevent the US from coming to Taiwan's defense in time.

China's fast-growing military modernization and expansion is aimed at a possible war between 2005 and 2010, according to the report.

"China's non-stop military expansion is a result of its wanting to keep playing an active role in Asia, outmatch neighboring countries such as Japan and India and counter the effects of US forces in the region. Taiwan must seek to improve its military capabilities in the coming six to 10 years in the face of China's military ambitions signifying a war between 2005 and 2010," the report states.

DPP Legislator Lee Wen-chung, a member of the legislature's National Defense Committee, yesterday said that Taiwan should develop pre-emptive strike capabilities to counter China's military build-up.

"China's annual military spen-ding is seven times that of Taiwan and is expected to increase up to 10 times along with its ongoing economic development in the near future.

The rate of China's military expansion has been steadily increasing over the past 10 years, with an estimated US$60 billion being spent on military purposes annually.

Taiwan's military spending is US$8 billion a year, half of which is used for personnel expenses, Lee said.

To counter the military imbalance in the Taiwan Strait, Lee said Taiwan should use both military and political means to ease the growing military threats from China.

The political approach would include bringing the issue of cross-strait military tensions to the attention of the international community, which would deter China from using force against Taiwan.

Lee said President Chen Shui-bian's proposed "defensive referendum" would be a good way of attracting international attention to China's military ambitions.

Shu Chin-chiang, a former senior advisor to the National Security Council, yesterday warned that the Taiwanese should not be so dazzled by the attraction of China's markets that they ignore the underlying military threat.

Shu said China's definition of Taiwanese independence, which has led to threats of war, varies from time to time.

US links Taiwan's democracy, stability

WHITE HOUSE COMMENTS: A spokesman said Bush's priority was to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait in order to protect democracy in Taiwan

By Charles Snyder

STAFF REPORTER IN WASHINGTON

Saturday, Dec 20, 2003,Page 1

"The president's priority is to preserve peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait in order to safeguard Taiwan's democracy, to promote the spread of personal freedoms in China and spare the region the scourge of war."

－Scott McClellan, White House spokesman

The George W. Bush administration pledged its support to Taiwan's democracy on Thursday, arguing that its preoccupation with retaining stability in the Taiwan Strait is aimed at doing just that. At the same time, the administration reiterated its commitment to Taiwan's security.

White House spokesman Scott McClellan made those points in answer to a question at his regular daily press briefing about whether there is any contradiction in Bush's commitment to democracy and freedom worldwide and his opposition to a referendum planned by President Chen Shui-bian opposing China's missile buildup aimed at Taiwan.

"We support Taiwan's democracy, as we do others around the world," he said.

He was responding to a question about comments made by Bush in a proclamation last week declaring Dec. 10 Human Rights Day and the following week as Human Rights Week.

In his proclamation, Bush stated, "freedom is the right of mankind and the future of every nation. It is not America's gift to the world; it is God's gift to every man and woman who lives in this world."

McClellan said these words are not inconsistent with Bush's strong warning to Chen during a press briefing with visiting Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao after their Oval Office meeting last week that he opposes Chen's decision to hold the referendum as a threat to Strait peace and security.

"The president's uncompromising position on Taiwan security is the clearest proof of his administration's commitment" to Taiwan democracy, McClellan said.

"And the president made it clear to Premier Wen that the United States would fulfill its obligations to help Taiwan defend itself, as called for under the Taiwan Relations Act," he said.

He noted that Bush during his meeting with Wen said Washington would "oppose any unilateral decisions by either China or Taiwan," to change the status quo.

Bush and Wen held a 40-minute private meeting on Dec. 9 and then the two continued meetings with aides through an official luncheon that day.

Taiwan was one of the key issues in the meeting, as Wen pressed Bush to oppose the referendum and other recent actions by Chen that Beijing considers efforts toward "splittism," or independence.

While it was not clear what, if any, concessions Bush made, his comments aimed directly at Chen during a brief press availability after the 40-minute meeting were the strongest and most authoritative comments against Chen's actions to have come out of the administration.

In the wake of criticism engendered by those comments, especially by Bush's conservative supporters, administration spokesman and officials have taken pains to reiterate US support for Taiwan.

But they have not backed away from Bush's basic criticism, or altered the administration's primary objections to anything that would upset the delicate balance in the Strait that could interfere with Bush's other foreign policy involvements, such as Iraq, the war on terrorism, and North Korea.