power balance on Aug 08, 2004

Conference mulls shifting cross-strait power balance

WOOING WASHINGTON: A recent report says that the US' Asian policy is becoming ocean-oriented, and that this offers opportunities for Taiwan to play a larger role
By Wang Hsiao-wen
STAFF REPORTER
 

The recent concurrent military exercises launched by Taiwan, China, and the US have raised alarm over China's military buildup, offering a reminder that the Taiwan Strait remains one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints, experts said yesterday.

At a conference held by the Taiwan New Century Foundation in Taipei, scholars and experts discussed the shifting military balance across the strait and explored strategies to enhance the country's geopolitical value to the US in face of a growing threat from China.

"The US' annual report on China's military clout issued in May made it clear that China is emerging as a regional hegemon. China's surging military power has significantly altered the strategic balance in Taiwan-US-China relations," said presidential advisor Chen Lung-chu.

The report from the US Defense Department indicated that China's annual defense spending is between US$50 billion and US$70 billion a year, giving it the world's third-largest military budget.

Experts also turned the spotlight on China's eighth annual military drill around Dongshan Island. "The PLA's (People's Liberation Army) joint forces exercise rehearsed an invasion of Taiwan and [served as] a practice to capture air and sea dominance in the Strait. The exercise tells of China's readiness for a full-fledged war," said Wang Kung-yi, a Tamkang University associate professor of international affairs and strategic studies.

Wang's observation is supported by the Chinese People's Daily. The state mouthpiece pointed out that the Dongshan exercise was conducted on the assumption that Taiwan proclaimed independence. In that case, the newspaper declared, the PLA would immediately take the Penghu Islands, forming a deterrent and an outpost position for racing to control Taiwan.

"As before, the military maneuvers are to deter Taiwanese from moving toward indepen-dence," Wang said.

Others contended that the US' current global deployment of seven aircraft carriers for an exercise named Summer Pulse 2004 shows that the world's leading power is concerned with the strained cross-strait relations. They said the concurrent military display implies that the US is also eyeing its interests in the Asia-Pacific region.

"After the power transfer in Iraq, anti-terrorism ceased to be the sole focus. The issue of security in the Asia-Pacific region has now returned to the US agenda. Taiwan's geopolitical importance is now on the rise," said Yan Jian-fa, vice chair of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' research and planning committee.

According to Yan, some unnamed US consultants took part in Taiwan's Han Kuang maneuvers in July, demonstrating high-level contacts between US and Taiwan military commanders. However, experts agreed that securing US support requires multilateral efforts in a wider regional context.

"We must maximize our mutual interests with the US to win Washington's persistent support," said Chen Min-tong, a former Mainland Affairs Council vice chairman.

He said that seeking greater overlapping of the two nations' respective national interests can entrench Taiwan's strategic position in the archipelagos arching alongside Russia and China.

Chen cited the much-discussed Nye Report, a blueprint for the Bush administration's East Asia policy, to emphasize the role Taiwan can play in an ocean-oriented framework of warfare.

In Chen's analysis, a fortified alliance with Japan will help include Taiwan in the East Asian safety network laid down by the US-Japan Defense Guidelines.

"The China-Japan relationship is deteriorating. On the contrary, Taiwan is improving its ties with her neighbor country. We should seize the opportunity to nurture relations with Japan," Chen said.

Another strategy to promote Taiwan's security is to boost the island's military spending. Experts in the conference said that with more than 500 missiles pointed at Taiwan, it is not a choice but a necessity to step up defense.

"We urge those who oppose the arms procurement to think twice before they jump to conclusions. Despite an absence of military conflict at the moment, we are already in a psychological war, cultural war, economic war with China," said Shu Chin-Chiang, secretary-general of the National Cultural Association.

Experts talk over China's possible war strategies

By Melody Chen
STAFF REPORTER
 

Following Vice President Annette Lu's claim on Friday that Taiwan and China are in a "quasi-war" state, academics warned yesterday that cross-strait tensions remain high at a conference discussing recent military exercises conducted by China, Taiwan and the US.

"Causes for conflict have been defused, but hidden concerns still exist" since President Chen Shui-bian's inauguration on May 20, said Chang Wu-yen, professor at Tamkang University's Institute of China Studies.

Presidential advisor Chen Lung-chu chaired the conference, which was organized by the Taiwan New Century Foundation.

Along with efforts to modernize its military, China has increased its unification campaign among the People's Liberation Army (PLA), Chang said.

"It is now easier for PLA sol-diers to obtain information on the outside world through the Internet. In order to prevent the soldiers from being `polluted,' China launched media, psychological and legal wars against Taiwan," Chang said.

In the three wars, he said, Beijing attempted to demonize Taiwan's democratization, label Taiwan's constitutional reform as a move toward independence and make a unification law the legal basis for union with Taiwan, he said.

With its deep distrust of the nation's president, Beijing is watching closely to see whether the Democratic Progressive Party and its political ally, the Taiwan Solidarity Union, will win a majority of seats in the year-end legislative elections, Chang said.

"China fears Chen Shui-bian will push for amendment of the Referendum Law after the legislative elections. It is worried that the president will use the law as a tool in the 2006 constitutional re-engineering project," he said.

"In fact, if China still believes it can effectively rein in Taiwan through the US, its relationship with Taiwan can remain stable," said Chang, who visited China, the US and Canada to collect opinions concerning the issue over the past month.

Chen Ming-tong, a former Mainland Affairs Council vice chairman, said the recent visit of US National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice to Beijing revealed America's wish to maintain a normal relationship with China.

"The US would like to see China think about the boundary of its national interests. It particularly wants China to consider how to make its national interests compatible with those of the US," Chen Ming-tong said.

He said that the US, using a carrot-and-stick strategy with China, "has warned China not to hastily plunge into action and showed Beijing a way to go. This way will not contradict the US' national interests."

Considering the recent military exercises by China, Taiwan and the US, Wang Kung-yi, an Tamkang University associate professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, said that only under three conditions will the coun-tries' strategic roles change.

"First, the Chinese authorities start democratization or collapse. Second, China unifies with Taiwan. Third, Taiwan declares independence," said Wang.

Lacking patience to wait for one of the three conditions to take place, a number of Beijing hawks have been calling on the Chinese authorities to launch a war against Taiwan as soon as possible, Wang said.

These hawks regard the best time to start a war with Taiwan as in 2005 or 2006. With the 2008 Olympics in mind, China would try to minimize the scale of such a war, he said, for they believe that if a war were started after 2008, its impact might be much more far-reaching.

Lu defends `quasi-war' comment

`NO CONFLICT': Despite furious damage control from the Presidential Office, the vice president said that she didn't mean war in any military sense, but on other fronts

STAFF WRITER , WITH CNA
 

Vice President Annette Lu yesterday clarified her controversial claim made on Friday that said the two sides of the Taiwan Strait were in a state of "quasi-war," saying that she did not mean "quasi-war" in a military sense.

In an interview with a news agency, Lu argued that her "quasi-war" statement was based on concepts of "unlimited, atypical and asymmetric warfare" rather than on conventional warfare concepts.

Claiming that the Presidential Office's statement focuses on the "military dimension" of cross-strait ties, Lu said she sees no conflict between her definition and the Presidential Office's rapid denial of her characterization.

Lu was referring to a statement released by the Presidential Office hours after her interview with Super Taiwan Radio on Friday, during which Lu characterized relations with China as a state of "quasi-war" because of Beijing's diplomatic and economic actions.

The Presidential Office statement said that the situation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is not a state of "quasi-war." The statement added, however, that the public should still keep alert in the face of China's military intimidation and political blockade.

Lu had also said that China does not have to actually attack Taiwan to start a war because this is a time when unlimited warfare dominates.

"Beijing has been isolating Taiwan diplomatically and hollowing out the island economically. It has even stepped up its diplomatic offensive against Taiwan after President Chen Shui-bian's May 20 second inauguration, intending to lure away Taiwan's diplomatic allies," she said.

"Moreover, Beijing has launched an all-out united front campaign to entice Taiwan businesspeople and other citizens. Militarily, its troops are practicing strategies for invading Taiwan," Lu said. She added that all these developments point to the fact that cross-strait ties are in a "quasi-war" state.

Meanwhile, Lu released what she called an authoritative analysis to back up her concerns about the current cross-strait situation.

This analysis said Beijing began a five-year plan after Taiwan's transition of power between different political parties in 2000 that requires its frontline military units responsible for Taiwan to complete full modernization by 2005 in preparation for pressuring Taiwan to accept its unification terms.

China's intelligence and "united front" units also have stepped up efforts to influence Taiwan in economic, academic, religious and information technology fields. Lu said Taiwan has been overlooking China's offensive in this regard.

"In the face of these challenges, we cannot only rely on military force to defend our security. We should mount an all-out campaign to beef up our psychological and civilian defense as well as military defense," Lu said

Also yesterday, Lu modified her harsh criticisms on Friday of pop diva Chang Hui-mei , more widely known as A-mei. Lu said that she did not object to local artists performing in China, adding that such performances in fact qualify as a form of "soft diplomacy" that she herself advocated.

Lu said, however, that a sense of national identity was also important. Mental and civic preparation for China's "super-war" attacks are key defenses, Lu said. If high-profile, influential citizens have no sense of national identity and duty, military morale may be severely dampened, she said.

Lu said that if Chinese authorities punished A-mei for singing the national anthem at Chen's first inauguration by keeping her from performing in Beijing for five years, then they have committed crimes against Chang's "natural human rights."

The Height of Hypocrisy

By Yung Ching-lin

As a Taiwanese person, it's truly amazing to witness how divided the US is over the Bush administration in this election year -- especially after reading articles, three days in a row, responding to Joel Linton (Letters, July 18, page 8) and then others fiercely denouncing the first respondents.

To my eyes, it's hypocritical for US President George W. Bush to boast about democratic progress in Iraq, when almost everybody knows his adventure in Iraq relates to another much more important substance -- oil.

So I laughed, and laughed bitterly to hear him suggest that President Chen Shui-bian was irresponsible for holding a referendum during Taiwan's presidential election month. What about democracy?

However, it was even more laughable to see on TV the image of the exuberant Michael Moore being applauded for "revealing the truth to the public" by the French -- whose own government is notorious for siding with dictatorial regimes and being obsessed with their own irrational anti-Americanism.

Iraqi people lived peacefully and happily when former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein was in power? The lifting of sanctions advocated by French President Jacques Chirac's government was for the Iraqis' own good?

Give me a break. The French had extensive interests in Iraq's oil industry, too.

Moreover, which nation first lifted its diplomatic boycott on China after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre? Which nation has been campaigning unrelentingly for lifting the arms sales embargo to China?

Yes, it's France. Now that I've seen Moore talk about morality but gleefully accept praise from the French, I know what "super-hypocrisy" is.

Yung Ching-lin   Hsinchu

`Taiwan Consciousness' here to stay

After the March 20 presidential election, many of the nation's political commentators suddenly discovered that growing "Taiwan consciousness" -- first promoted by former president Lee Teng-hui when he came to power in 1988 -- has finally become a strong mainstream opinion. It even helped President Chen Shui-bian, who comes from a poor farming family, defeat the alliance of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan and People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong, who represent a "greater China consciousness."

After nearly 50 years of autocratic rule by the KMT government, the Taiwanese people certainly hoped that the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) government would correct many wrongs when it assumed power in 2000. The public is particularly concerned about the existence or abolition of the Constitution of the Republic of China (ROC).

In light of the current development of the nation's constitutional democracy, it's time to significantly amend the "ROC" Constitution, which was completely unrelated to Taiwan during the process of its establishment. After the regime of the late president Chiang Kai-shek brought the Constitution to Taiwan from China, he froze it through a number of temporary statutes. Later, the late president Chiang Ching-kuo did not make any amendment either. Lee started to change the Constitution in 1991, and completed six amendments before his retirement, as if he was putting patches on a ragged cloth.

But as every Taiwanese knows, the Constitution divides the state into five separate powers. In addition to the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial Yuan, it allows the Examination and Control Yuans to waste public funds, since their functions are very limited. If, therefore, Taiwan wants to emulate advanced democratic countries and set up a state with three separate powers, the Constitution must be amended or a new constitution written.

In addition, the Constitution does not clearly define the scope of the nation's territory. Some people therefore believe it to be enormous, encompassing the People's Republic of China and Mongolia, while others claim that it only includes Taiwan island, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu. There are numerous preposterous interpretations of what constitutes the country's territory. Lawmakers with different political outlooks often quarrel in the legislature -- and sometimes even come to blows. This behavior has gained international notoriety and seriously hampers legislative efficiency.

There is also the question of whether the number of legislative seats should be halved and electoral districts redrawn. Unless authorities such as the National Unification Council, the Taiwan Provincial Government and the Fukien Provincial Government are quickly abolished, the nation will not be doing right by taxpayers and their hard-earned money.

We have pointed out these examples to show that in this country the public will is paramount, and that any party wishing to rule cannot turn their back on the people's "Taiwan consciousness." The arguments presented about these issues by Lien and Soong have been insubstantial and weak. They seem more concerned with Beijing's attitude than with the sentiments of the people. It is this attitude that planted the seeds of their electoral defeat.

Now, PFP Vice Chairman Chang Chao-hsiung has led his party's caucus in opposing discussion of a constitutional amendment bill. In doing this, he has gone back on the consensus established by all parties last month, and shown the PFP to be yet again obstructing the progress of democracy. They will pay a heavy price for flying in the face of mainstream public opinion. Have they learned nothing from their defeat in the Kaohsiung by-elections last month? Will the PFP follow the path of the New Party into political oblivion?