20041004

The Donald Keyser case has all the qualities of the classic Japanese film Rashomon, in which four different people give four radically different accounts of the same events.

Everyone involved in the Keyser case is telling a different story, and the flap has generated hubbub in all sectors of society.

The Taiwan government is now in damage control mode, looking for the source of the incident and the "spy" behind it.

But if it doesn't handle this case in an appropriate manner, it could do irreparable harm to Taiwan-US relations.

There are four respects in which the Keyser affair is likely to affect Taiwan. First, Keyser, who was in line to be the next chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, will now certainly not be taking up that post.

Second, revelations of a "national security" leak will make US officials less forthcoming and more secretive in their regular meetings with Taiwanese officials and academics at Taiwan's US representative office.

Third, the official counterpart of Taiwan's National Security Bureau (NSB) is the CIA, but on the insistence of high officials in the US government, the matter is being handled by the State Department.

As the case has affected regular diplomatic and intelligence-gathering operations, it is possible that there will be friction between the diplomatic and national security units within Taiwan's representative office in the US.

Fourth, in the short term at least, the morale of intelligence agents working with the US will take a blow, and their freedom of action may also be more constrained.

In the investigation of the Keyser case, Taiwan may be able to minimize the damage to Taiwan-US relations and trust if it faces the matter truthfully, cooperates fully with the US, rewards and fairly punishes those involved and -- most of all -- maintains clear lines of diplomatic communication.

Even as national security and foreign affairs agencies try to limit the damage, the government should act on the idea that "honesty is the best policy."

But ultimately, compared to the issues that will impact mutual trust between the two countries, these are only peripheral matters.

September of last year, when Keyser made his secret visit to Taiwan, was a time when that trust had sharply deteriorated. Certainly, when President Chen Shui-bian took office in 2000 and announced in 2002 "one country on each side of the Strait," relations had already begun to deteriorate.

But it was the announcement of the referendum question last June that pushed the relationship to a crisis point.

The situation got so bad that US President George Bush criticized Chen, albeit without referring to him by name, for wishing to change the status quo.

From that time relations between the US, China and Taiwan have been tense. Key events include Chen's many post-election press conferences proposing to amend the Constitution through a referendum, visits by US Vice President Dick Cheney and National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice to China in April and July respectively, repeated warnings to Taiwan from James Kelly, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and James Moriarty of the National Security Council, China's proposal to formulate a "unification" law, its Taiwan Affairs Office's May 17 declaration [to "put a resolute check on Taiwan independence activities"] and rumors of Bush's remarks expressing criticism of Chen.

In these circumstances, the quality of intelligence gathered through regular channels by Taiwan's representatives in the US is unlikely to satisfy the Chen administration.

Therefore, pressure on NSB personnel to gather intelligence will increase. And under this extreme pressure even highly trained operatives may make mistakes.

The Keyser case is different from conventional cases of diplomatic or intelligence personnel breaking the rules. Strictly speaking, it is a political case. Its significance depends on how it is considered.

I believe the best way to resolve the Keyser case is to discover its root cause.

That is to say, we should look at the big picture, and seek to reverse the decline in Taiwan-US relations of the last few years.

For example, in meeting the US demand that Taiwan not alter the status quo, we must do what we say and not try to play word games with the Americans. In the context of US-China-Taiwan relations, we should probably take a new tack, implementing policies that benefit the US, but also meet our own interests.

We must build on our commercial and technical strength, seek security assurances from the US and at the same time seek parity in our commercial dealings with China.

The Americans are great believers in mutual trust, and we must not promise them one thing and do another.

Only through matching our words with actions can we rebuild trust between the US and Taiwan, and thereby improve our relationship and enhance our security.

Edward Chen is the director of the Graduate Institute of American Studies at Tamkang University.

The nation has always been independent from China. Not for a single day has it been ruled by China. Twenty-three million Taiwanese -- 7.7 times the number of Singaporeans -- have the absolute right to advocate continued independence from China.

The UN has the duty to protect the human rights of Taiwanese people, who outnumber the people of Singapore by 20 million. The nation's people have the right to pursue an internationally-recognized status as an independent and sovereign nation.

When Singapore's Foreign Minister George Yeo spoke at the UN General Assembly opposing Taiwanese independence and reiterating support for the "one-China" principle, he violated the rights of 23 million Taiwanese.

Yeo said that if there were any push toward independence, a war across the Taiwan Strait would be very difficult to avoid and that the stability of the Asia-Pacific region and even the world would be at stake.

Such statements only serve to further encourage aggressive powers to violate human rights with military force.

Many groups in the Canadian province of Quebec that have advocated and worked for independence did so without the Canadian government aiming 600 missiles at them.

Nor did the federal government fire test missiles over Quebec to intimidate the population, which is about the same as Singapore's. Just as the independence movement in Quebec has not sought to incite a war, the independence movement in Taiwan -- which has not for one single day been ruled by China -- has not created the current risk of war in the Taiwan Strait.

China's aggression is the primary reason a risk of war exists in the Taiwan Strait.

Not only did Yeo's speech at the UN General Assembly seriously violate the human rights of Taiwan's 23 million citizens, it also encouraged the violation of human rights by military powers.

The Taiwan Association of University Professors solemnly would like to tell our Singaporean friends that Yeo's speech -- in its tacit support for military power -- will sooner or later place them under the same tyrannical authority of those powers.

Jiang Zemin has been forced to step down from his post as chairman of China's Central Military Commission (CMC). This ugly defeat is evidence that he has lost the support of his close allies. Lin Chung-Pin, a professor at Tamkang University's Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that the members of the Jiang faction scattered when the situation became untenable.

Lin has served as both deputy director of the Mainland Affairs Council and deputy defense minister and is well informed on China affairs, and he correctly predicted that Jiang would step down at the fourth plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) 16th Central Committee. Considering that Jiang had problems controlling the situation when he was in power, and that the measures he took prior to the CCP's 16th National Congress proved inefficient, might he now be able to make a comeback?

President Hu Jintao played second fiddle for a decade and then spent another two years preparing to take over the top position. I don't think Hu, who normally pays cautious attention to the smallest of details, will lose his wits over a desire for power. Hu knows that Jiang is unhappy, and will therefore handle things concerning him with the utmost care, including policy, human resources and so on, in order to prevent Jiang's faction from seeking to reinstate Jiang.

Jiang participated in the CMC's expanded meeting on Sept. 20. Although he was still chairman of the CMC, he was already powerless according to the CCP's "party-military" principle. While Hu invited him as a sign of respect, Jiang had the audacity to declare five major directives. Not only does he not want to become isolated, he is even unwilling to retire, and wants to continue to order people about.

One of the directives warned Hu that he must not promise to give up the option to use armed force to resolve the Taiwan issue, saying that this is the most important political principle.

Jiang used the statement "war in the Taiwan Strait is unavoidable" to create cross-strait tension and then exploited that tension as an excuse not to give up his hold on military power. Now that he has stepped down, his only worry is that cross-strait relations will cool down, which would discredit his own policy. He therefore has an interest in maintaining cross-strait tension.

Learning his lesson from Jiang, Hu on Sept. 21, at the celebration of the 55th anniversary of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said he will continue to follow "Jiang's Eight Points." On the same day, the Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson made a speech in which he criticized President Chen Shui-bian, saying that his diplomatic efforts are tantamount to engaging in desinicization and working toward Taiwan independence, and that he is "stirring up an incident, creating a tragedy, deliberately provoking China and stirring up antagonism between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait."

These tough statements clearly are for Jiang's ears, so as not to offer any vulnerabilities that can be exploited by him. In addition, Hu is obviously worried that the transition of power will convince Taiwan he is a dove and that Taiwan therefore will take some action that will demand a response. This is why he decided it is better to be aggressive.

Although Hu still hasn't spoken about Taiwan in the same vicious way as Jiang, he won't dare to lightly change China's Taiwan policy out of fear of being attacked by Jiang and his henchmen.

Jiang's unhappiness can be further explained by the behavior of the PLA Daily, the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) official newspaper under the direct control of the PLA's General Political Department. All directors of the General Political Department from Yu Yongbo to Xu Caihou have been Jiang's confidantes. After the Sept. 19 announcement that Jiang was stepping down, the PLA Daily didn't immediately declare its support for the new CMC chairman, Hu.

Not until the Sept. 21 did the paper print an editorial stating its strong support of Hu. Almost half of that editorial, however, praised Jiang for his contribution to the military. It is clear that the PLA isn't very glad to see Jiang go. Although the PLA editorial was written in praise of Jiang, some people see it more as an elegy.

If Hu, in addition to the army, also avoids going against the interests of members of the group around Jiang, I think they are unlikely to react very strongly, because everyone wants to protect the dilapidated CCP and no one wants to rock the boat.

At present, it is also unknown whether Hu has offered Jiang and his henchmen any secret guarantees, such as not infringing on their vested interests. But one piece of news has been leaked, maybe one of the conditions offered in exchange for Jiang's resignation: On the eve of the fourth plenary session, the Hong Kong Economic Times reported a widespread rumor in Beijing's financial circles that Jiang's second son, the low-key Jiang Miankang, was to replace the retiring Wang Jun as chairman of China International Trust and Investment Corp Group (CITIC Group).

The CITIC Group controls state-owned enterprises worth a total of 600 billion yuan (US$72.5 billion). Now that its current chairman, the son of Wang Zhen , former PLA general and vice president of China from 1988 until his death in 1993, is about to retire, many members of the "Princeling Party" (a group composed of children and relatives of the ruling elite) will of course fight to succeed him.

It is said that Wang Jun originally had arranged to have Kong Dan, son of the late head of Chinese intelligence, Kong Yuan, take over the position. Kong, always the second choice, has muddled through a dozen years in China Everbright Group and could probably not believe his luck at getting his hands on that lucrative post. And now it seems that Jiang Miankang may snatch it away from under his nose.

If this is true, Jiang Zemin will find himself with even more enemies. Perhaps it is Hu's plan to flatter Jiang to the outside world while in fact isolating him even more, further preventing him from making a comeback.

This shows us the unpredictability of CCP power struggles: despite the power transfer, unresolved problems remain. This is because discretionary individual rule has not been systematized. CCP political reform still has a long way to go. It now remains to be seen whether Hu plans to do anything about that, and whether he has the required daring and resolution to do so.

REGIONAL SECURITY: Japan is trying to reform its security role in the region, and the premier said that Taiwan backs its desire to take a more active stance

Taiwan fully supports Japan in its effort to remove the restrictions on its foreign policy that have been in place since World War II, and believes the country should become a regional power in Asian security affairs and take on a more important role in the UN, officials said yesterday.

"The Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the US and Japan is a cornerstone of Asia-Pacific security. Ensuring the security of Taiwan is also an important part of the US-Japan alliance, because the Taiwan Strait is a lifeline for Japan's marine transportation," Premier Yu Shyi-kun said.

"For the security of the Asia-Pacific, many Japanese academics and heavyweights have advocated that Japan should develop into a `normal nation' and play an active role in the region's security and defense affairs. We completely agree and support this position," Yu said.

"We also believe that Japan regards the peace and security of the Taiwan Strait seriously," Yu said. "Considering the shared interests between Taiwan and Japan in terms of regional security, the two nations should establish a security and defense dialogue mechanism."

Yu made his remarks yesterday while addressing the opening ceremony of the 2004 Forum on Taiwan-Japan Relations, which was held by the Foundation on International & Cross-Strait Studies.

He then focused on the increasing military threat from China, saying that since the end of the Cold War, China's military has expanded, and with the North Korean nuclear issue still unresolved, China and North Korea have become the biggest threat to the security of Northeast Asia.

"Taiwan, Japan and the US should establish a closer `alliance of values' and secure communication channels," Yu said.

In recent years, many Japanese have proposed making changes to the Constitution to expand the nation's military capabilities. Although Japan has the most advanced military in the region after that of the US, its capabilities are limited under Article 9 of Japan's Constitution, which limits it to a purely defensive role.

Still, some politicians and academics say Japan should become active in ensuring the security of Asia. Japan is also lobbying to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

However, some of Japan's neighbors -- in particular countries that were invaded by Japan during and prior to World War II -- have been strongly opposed to such moves, mainly because of Japan's imperial conquests.

Yu said that in contrast to other countries' doubts and opposition, the Taiwanese government supports a stronger Japan that is more involved in regional security affairs.

Taiwan hopes to enhance the relationship between the US, Japan and Taiwan, creating a de facto alliance, Yu said.

Chiou I-jen, secretary-general of the National Security Council, also attended the forum.

Chiou said that Japan's evolution into a "normal country" and its taking up the role of a leader in Asia would be beneficial to the peace and prosperity of the region.

As diplomatic relations between Japan and Taiwan were cut in 1972, Chiou told the Japanese representatives in the forum that "the 1972 structure should not hinder the normalization of the Japan-Taiwan relationship."

Meanwhile, the Taiwan question should be viewed as an international issue which affects the interests of other countries, a Japanese official said yesterday.

Uchida Katsuhisa, director-general of the Taipei Office under the Interchange Association of Japan, told the forum that the international community is shifting away from the conventional notion that the "Taiwan question" is a Chinese internal affair as Beijing has consistently claimed.

Auspicious moves
Members of various performance groups yesterday dance in front of the Taipei City Hall during the opening ceremony of the Sixth Taipei Arts Festival. Their sophisticated makeup, costumes and movements were eye-catching and their performance was designed get rid of inauspicious events and bring good luck to people.
PHOTO: SEAN CHAO, TAIPEI TIMES