20041117

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) thanked US Secretary of State Colin Powell for his contribution to Taiwan-US ties yesterday after US President George W. Bush accepted his resignation.

Despite Powell's denial of Taiwan's sovereign status and call for the country's "peaceful reunification" with China during his visit to Beijing last month, the ministry said Powell has repeatedly expressed approval of the democratic development in Taiwan during his tenure.

Ministry spokesman Michel Lu mentioned Powell's citation of Taiwan as a "success story" in a major speech on US East Asia policy to the Asia Society Annual Dinner on June 10, 2002.

Saying that the US takes its responsibilities under the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) "very, very seriously," Powell remarked in the speech that people tend to refer to Taiwan as "The Taiwan Problem."

"I call Taiwan not a problem, but a success story. Taiwan has become a resilient economy, a vibrant democracy and a generous contributor to the international community," Powell said.

"The ministry appreciates Mr. Powell's contribution to increased ties between Taiwan and the US ... He also supported Taiwan's participation in international organizations, including the World Health Organization," Lu said in a press conference.

Lu said the ministry believes Powell's departure would not affect Taiwan-US relations.

"Taiwan and the US share universal values such as freedom, democracy and human rights. Both sides have intense trade and cultural exchanges and have been cooperating well in international anti-terrorism efforts," Lu said.

The ministry would consider the possibility of inviting Powell to visit Taiwan after his leaves office, Lu added.

The ministry declined to comment on the likely impact Powell's replacement, National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, will have on cross-strait relations.

Rice first visited China in 1988 and then again in 1992, made her most recent trip to Beijing in July.

Although it is predicted Rice would take a hardline stance on US foreign policy, it is not immediately clear whether the US' Taiwan policy would depart from its previous position after Rice assumes the post.

Whether Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and Randall Shriver, deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian affairs, will stay after Powell's departure may have significant influence on Washington's future Taiwan policy, observers said.

In a speech she made at the University of Louisville in March, Rice said the US has a very clear policy on China's relations with Taiwan and that it "remains the kind of upright anchor to keep that policy in place."

"There's `one China,' but we expect that no one will try -- in one way or another -- to change the status quo unilaterally. That means that Taiwan should not try to move to independence unilaterally, and it means that China should not provoke or threaten Taiwan," she said.

LACK OF INFORMATION: The Ministry of National Defense's spokesman said that he didn't know anything about a reported move to oust the president
By Lin chieh-yu STAFF REPORTER
The Ministry of National Defense (MND) said yesterday that the military has sworn allegiance to the country in accordance with the Constitution and that there was no danger of a coup d'etat, nor was there any information possessed by the military suggesting that any senior officers had intended to take part in such an act.

Meanwhile, President Chen Shui-bian's recent comments about a "soft coup d'etat" continued to raise a furor in the political arena.

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Lee Wen-chung said that three serving generals and eight lieutenant generals had been targeted by retired officers to either resign or fake illness in order to add to the controversy following the presidential election.

Although the government is repeating that the pan-blue parties attempted to launch a "soft coup d'etat" following the March 20 election, no actual evidence has yet been provided.

The ministry tried to keep a low profile yesterday regarding the accusation, but MND spokesman Major General Huang Suey-sheng was questioned repeatedly by reporters about whether the military had any intelligence about the issue.

Huang simply stressed the loyalty of the military to the country, but refused to comment on whether the MND has proceeded with an internal investigation. He also refused to confirm whether or not any retired generals had contacted high-ranking officials in the wake of the election.

"The military's stance on its allegiance to the country is positively certain. The so-called `soft coup d'etat' is something the military is not familiar with, nor does the MND understand the source of the information coming from some of these legislators," Huang said.

But Huang did attempt to add an interpretation of Chen's statements: "The goal of President Chen was to confirm the depoliticization of the military by pointing out that some people may have attempted to persuade serving generals and officers, but that the officers were unmoved. There were no resignations from any generals after the election."

"The president also did not specify whether the officers were generals and lieutenant-generals," Huang said. "Retired senior officers are not under the control of the MND. As for serving officers having being contacted [by retired officers], the MND has no related information on this. Questions about this issue should be directed to the legislators who have made the claims."

Huang's vague comments triggered a burst of complaints from reporters, which eventually led to a shouting match between one reporter and Huang.

As to who exactly it was that supposedly tried to persuade military leaders to resign in order to cause havoc after the presidential election, a source from the military disclosed -- under condition of anonymity -- that the president was not referring to former minister of national defense Tang Yao-ming , but rather a different retired senior officer.

The source said that this officer was once trusted by former president Lee Teng-hui , and Chen also had high expectations of him in his first term. When asked if this retired officer was former defense minister Chiang Chung-ling , the source was not willing to comment.

PUBLICITY: The former president dressed up as the hero of a popular Japanese comic book to promote a new Web site aimed at young people
By Jewel Huang
STAFF REPORTER

Wearing the traditional costume of a Japanese kendo grand master and looking like the hero of a famous Japanese comic book, former president Lee Teng-hui yesterday took an unprecedented step in posing for a series of publicity pictures with two young students of the Lee Teng-hui School.

The photos will be used to promote a new Web site aimed at introducing young people to Lee's philosophy and beliefs on Taiwan-centered national identification.

Inspired by a well-known Japanese comic book by Akira Miyashita about life in a private kendo school, the publicity campaign is the brainchild of Freddy Lin, lead singer of the Taiwanese black metal band Chthonic and former student of the Lee Teng-hui School's young leaders' program.

Lin said Lee very closely resembles the comic book's hero, a 80-year-old kendo grand master, in both appearance and mettle.

He said the former president was pleased with his idea of presenting his ideas to the younger generation by playing the comic book's hero.

"I've been thinking about how to offer young people like me a chance to get to know about former president Lee's enthusiasm and vigor, which have deeply influenced me," Lin said.

"And we think a new Web site is a very good medium to realize such an idea, and presenting Lee as a kendo master based on the comic book character should capture the attention of young comic-book enthusiasts," he said.

Lin said that the Web site would be different from the usual sites promoting political figures.

"The Web site is more like a database that will introduce Lee's philosophy and his viewpoints on literature, arts and national identification from young people's perspective. It will become a platform for young people to interact and talk about Lee," he said.

Hsieh I-hong , a National Taiwan University student majoring in political science, has also noted similarities between Lee and the comic's hero.

"Former president Lee is very similar to the comic's hero, since they both believe in the importance of responsibility to the country and society and stress courage and perseverance," Hsieh said, adding that Lee was known as a proficient kendo practitioner when he was a high-school student.

The Web site's address will be announced at a news conference next Tuesday, Lin said.

Former president Lee Teng-hui and two young models, dressed like characters from a Japanese comic book, pose for publicity shots yesterday to promote a new Web site in an effort to attract young voters.
PHOTO COURTESY OF THE LEE TENG-HUI SCHOOL

CROSS-STRAIT AFFAIRS: The president said Hu Jintao seems to be refraining from using Beijing's stock rhetorical phases regarding Taiwan
CNA , TAIPEI
President Chen Shui-bian yesterday hailed recent remarks by Chinese President Hu Jintao as containing signs of goodwill that give weight to Taipei's expectations of a thaw in relations across the Taiwan Strait.

Chen made the statement while meeting at the Presidential Office with a group of overseas Chinese community leaders from western Canada and the US.

Hu is in Brazil on the first leg of his official visit to several South American countries that will also take him to Argentina and Chile. He was quoted as having told Chinese community leaders in Rio de Janeiro on Monday that China's development comes ahead of cross-strait unification issues on his government's agenda.

Chen said he felt that Hu's remarks signalled "some goodwill toward the expectation of a gradual thaw in the lingering cross-strait stalemate."

Chen added that he noticed that Beijing had refrained from using some of its stock rhetorical phases regarding Taiwan in a news release issued the previous day.

"In the latest Beijing news release, we found some signs of goodwill that we are paying close attention to."

"In the latest Beijing news release, we found some signs of goodwill that we are paying close attention to," Chen said, adding that he takes this as China's initial response to the 10-point conclusion reached at a National Security Council (NSC) meeting that he chaired last Wednesday.

Since his re-election, Chen said he has repeatedly extended olive branches to Beijing in the hopes of resuming regular cross-strait dialogue and normalizing bilateral relations. Noting that he unequivocally expounded on the aspirations of his administration and of the Taiwanese people for cross-strait rapprochement in his May 20 inauguration speech, his Double Ten National Day address as well as in last Wednesday's NSC meeting, Chen said he hopes Beijing can make a goodwill response to open up a "window of opportunity" for the future.

Chen assured the overseas Chinese community leaders that his administration will continue to pursue normalization of cross-strait relations with maximum goodwill, sincerity and patience.

"My administration will adopt effective measures to create an environment favorable for cross-strait interaction and peaceful development for the sake of regional stability and the people's wellbeing," he said.

As a popularly elected president, Chen said, he is obligated to safeguard the nation's sovereignty, dignity and security as well as the wellbeing of the nation's 23 million people.

In an attempt to defuse controversy over national identity issues, Chen also took advantage of the occasion to call for support for the Republic of China (ROC).

"The Republic of China's continued existence since 1911 is beyond question. As the ROC's 11th-term president, I cannot tolerate any questioning of the ROC's existence. During my tenure, I will not allow any person to make the claim that the ROC no longer exists. I'll dedicated myself to defending its sovereign status, dignity and security," Chen said.

INFORMATION BLOCKADE: A US official told a business group last month that China is bolstering its ability to attack Taiwan's power, Internet and communications grids
AP , TAIPEI

China is developing the means to electronically blockade rival Taiwan with attacks to the country's vital utilities, the Internet and other communications networks, a high-ranking US defense official has said.

The stern warning was issued by Richard Lawless -- deputy undersecretary of defense -- during a closed-door meeting with business leaders last month in the US. A copy of Lawless' speech was obtained by The Associated Press yesterday under the US Freedom of Information Act.

Lawless cautioned that if a war broke out between Taiwan and China, the first casualties might not be "brave men and women in uniform." He said China might first target things that keep Taiwan's high-tech society running.

"China is actively developing options to create chaos on the island, to compromise components of Taiwan's critical infrastructure: telecommunications, utilities, broadcast media, cellular, Internet and computer networks," Lawless said on Oct. 4 to the US-Taiwan Business Council.

``Taiwan could be electronically blockaded, isolated from the world, creating a kind of perfect storm in which the US could not communicate with Taiwan or Taiwan with the world,'' Lawless said during the council's meeting in the southwestern city of Scottsdale, Arizona.

Lawless said such a strategy could be called an "acupuncture" attack aimed at "the destruction of a national will" with "the insertion of a hundred needles."

Beijing insists that self-ruled, democratic Taiwan is part of China and has repeatedly threatened to attack if the Taiwanese seek a permanent split or delay too long on unification.

Much of the debate over whether China will invade has focused on China's growing arsenal of destroyers, jets, submarines and hundreds of missiles aimed at Taiwan, just 160km off China's southern coast.

But in recent years, analysts have touted the possibility that China could be developing new high-tech weapons that could give the Chinese an edge over US forces -- which are widely expected to help defend Taiwan.

Lawless said that several recent incidents have exposed vulnerabilities in Taiwan's critical infrastructure and communication systems and that China is aware of these weak spots.

In 1999, the loss of a single transformer station on Taiwan "left thousands without power for weeks," while a massive earthquake the same year "left Taiwan dependent on satellite communications to the outside world for more than a month."

"Many feared China would attempt to take advantage of Taiwan's ill fortune," Lawless said.

Taiwan must do more to safeguard telecommunications, fiber optics, energy supplies and major transportation arteries, and should consider allowing private agencies to assist in national defense, he said.

"Taiwan is one of the most technologically advanced societies in the world, but the expertise and wealth of experience that exist in the private sector remains largely untapped," he said.

Beijing has refused to hold talks with Taiwan ever since the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) came to power in 2000 and refused to recognize the "one China" principle. This has caused much disquiet throughout Tai-wanese society, not least in the opposition parties, and recently even the US has been pushing for a resumption of dialogue between Taiwan and China. But how should Taiwan approach any such dialogue or tactics employed by China in any future dialogue?

The main strategy of the Chinese authorities has always been to "win Taiwan back" through talks. This is the least expensive option when compared to taking the nation by force. Nevertheless, anyone who understands the way in which China negotiates is aware that they have consistently employed a four-stage strategy.

The first stage is in devising a principle or discussion topic deemed to be to their own advan-tage, and the outcome that they desire is generally implicit in this principle. One such example of this is the "one China" principle. The topic that they put forward for the talks will also include the result that they want.

For example, by having Taiwan as the target of talks, the outcome of these talks is a foregone conclusion the minute such a discussion topic is accepted by authorities here. This is because, as far as Taiwan is concerned, the result of any such negotiations will either be the maintenance of the status quo or something less desirable -- even to the extent that it will mean surrender on our part.

The second stage is the exertion of pressure, where Beijing tries to get opponents to accept their regulations and their proposed topic. To do this, they will either try to cause internal division within an opponent or get a third party to put the heat on them.

This is the current state of affairs: the Chinese refusing to go to the negotiating table unless Taiwan accepts the "one China" principle, while at the same time releasing information about military exercises that they are carrying out. This creation of an atmosphere of anxiety is designed to intimidate the nation into accepting their principle. This stage is generally drawn out over a number of months or even years.

The third stage is where they actually go to the negotiating table. This stage is quite short. If talks develop in a direction favorable to them, they will reach a conclusion very quickly. Otherwise, they will break off the talks and move proceedings into the fourth stage.

The fourth stage can be looked at from the point of view of two possible situations. The first situation is one in which Beijing, having reached an agreement during negotiations, interprets the outcome in a way that works in their favor while simultaneously insisting their opponents implement the substance of their interpretation.

Another possible situation is one in which negotiations break down, the blame for which will be placed firmly on the shoulders of Beijing's opponent. In such a scenario, the Chinese return to the first and second stages.

Again, they will propose a principle and topic as prerequisites for the resumption of talks, followed by a further round of pressure and divisive tactics -- in a continuous process that forces Beijing's opponent to make compromises.

In fact, there are similarities between China's negotiation strategies and the Game Theory. This is particularly true for the crucial first and second stages. These can be considered small manoeuvres prior to the main game, designed to alter the rules of play, forcing one's opponent to take a position advantageous to oneself.

For this reason intelligence gathering is crucial, and intelligence and information agencies have thus played a very important role in the negotiations undertaken by China with other countries.

Taiwan must be cautious when playing the negotiation game with China. Taipei has to carefully analyze the principles and topics they propose prior to any talks and inform the public of their objectives. Let's look at the example of the "one China" principle -- that there is only one China in the world, of which Taiwan is a part, and that the People's Republic of China is its only legal representative (occasionally stated as fact that the sovereignty and territory of China is indivisible). Is the outcome of this not implicit in the wording?

Actually, it doesn't take a logician to know that the need to emphasize that there is only "one China" arises only when there is, in fact, more than "one China." We don't talk of "one America," "one Japan" or "one Australia."

Taipei should see negotiations with Beijing as a game, and not get bogged down by the legal terminology. Otherwise Taiwan may well be sacrificing much for little actual gain.

Chang Jung-feng is vice president of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research.

No nukes are good nukes
Representatives from environmental groups protest yesterday in front of the Control Yuan, accusing Ou Yang Min-shen, chairman of the Atomic Energy Council, of turning the council into a pro-nuclear group.
PHOTO: GEORGE TSORNG, TAIPEI TIMESN