Afghanistan may quickly become `a mirror of Iraq'

AP , KABUL

"This uprising will rage on until all foreign troops leave Afghanistan. We are going to break the back of these foreign troops."

Mullah Latif Hakimi, purported Taliban spokesman

Just three months ago, Afghanistan was proudly held up as a poster-child of US-led nation-building. But near-daily ambushes, execution-style killings, suicide bombings and this week's shooting down of a US special forces helicopter have quashed much of that optimism.

From US and UN officials down to Afghan villagers, there is growing fear that this country may be at a seminal moment with three years of state-building in danger of succumbing to the barrage of violence.

"After the presidential elections last year, everyone was optimistic that we were heading toward a stable, peaceful democracy. But it no longer seems that way," said Malalai Juya, a female candidate in September's elections from western Farah province. "Everyone is scared now. Security has been getting worse and worse by the day."

The resurgence of the Taliban insurgency could not have come at a worse time -- with just 10 weeks remaining before key legislative elections that are the next step toward democracy after a generation of war.

The downing of the chopper on Tuesday -- and a missing team of US soldiers -- reinforce concerns that while US casualties here are far fewer than in Iraq, the rebellion may be fast becoming a mirror of the insurgency there.

Stability has also been threatened by a rise in criminality, such as gangs kidnapping foreigners in the capital, Kabul, a booming trade in opium and heroin that threatens to turn Afghanistan into a "narco-state," and increasing resentment toward the presence of US forces, which erupted into deadly riots in May.

But it's not all bad news. The first democratically elected president, Hamid Karzai, took office after relatively peaceful elections last October. The economy, at least in cities, is doing well. Construction is booming in Kabul, cellphones are spreading and trade with neighbors Pakistan and Iran is lively.

One of the most significant developments is the emergence of the US-trained Afghan army, which now numbers 26,000 and regularly fights alongside troops from the 20,000-strong US-led coalition.

A separate NATO-led force of 8,000 soldiers is responsible for security in Kabul and the country's north and west. It plans to expand into the volatile south next year, freeing up American forces to go after Osama bin Laden, who is still thought to be hiding in the rugged mountains along the Afghan-Pakistan frontier.

The government has warned that bin Laden's al-Qaeda fighters and the Taliban rebels have launched a campaign of violence to subvert September's elections. It started with a suicide bombing inside a mosque in the southern city of Kandahar on June 1 that killed the Kabul police chief and 19 others, officials said.

A purported Taliban spokesman, Mullah Latif Hakimi, who claimed responsibility for shooting down the helicopter this week, vowed that rebel attacks will increase.

"This uprising will rage on until all foreign troops leave Afghanistan. We are going to break the back of these foreign troops," he said. "Our fighters are strong and our leader Mullah Omar is in charge."

Hakimi's exact tie to the Taliban leadership is not clear and his claims often prove exaggerated or untrue. The loss of the helicopter follows three months of unprecedented fighting that has killed about 477 suspected insurgents, 45 US troops, 47 Afghan police and soldiers and 134 civilians.

"We have no estimate on the strength of the Taliban," Defense Ministry spokesman Zahir Marad said.

In April, the former top US military commander here, Lieutenant General David Barno, estimated there to be 2,000 insurgents. He also predicted the near-total collapse of the rebel group within a year.

US spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Jerry O'Hara said the military now believes the violence is likely to continue. But he stressed that "no matter what the enemy throws at us, it is no match for the joint efforts of the Afghan security forces and the coalition." But the rebels have earned the respect of some US troops on the battlefield.

"The Taliban are good fighters. Much better than the rebels in Iraq," Captain Dirk Ringgenberg, from the 503rd Infantry Regiment, 173rd Airborne Brigade, told reporters as he patrolled in central Afghanistan. "If you make the Taliban fight, they will fight until the end. But the Iraqis will shoot a few times and then run and hide."

NATO is bringing in 3,000 more troops ahead of the elections to protect the polls. President Hamid Karzai has said he thinks the violence will worsen and local security forces have been ordered to gear up for battle.

"The Taliban are ambushing vehicles, putting roadside bombs, executing people almost every day," said Jan Mohammed Khan, governor of Uruzgan province. "They just keep attacking. Many of them have had terrorist training, they have good weapons and plenty of money."

He made the comments after fighting in his province left 25 dead, including nine tribal elders who Taliban rebels kidnapped and then executed. Khan, like many top Afghan officials, pointed the finger of blame at Pakistan, claiming Islamabad is not doing enough to stop terrorism, or is complicit with it.

Defense Minister Rahim Wardak told reporters last month that rebels were receiving support from "regional powers" rattled by Afghanistan's request for a long-term US and NATO presence.

Officials say three Pakistanis' alleged involvement in a plot last month to assassinate the former US ambassador is evidence of Islamabad's wrongdoing.

Pakistan vehemently denies any involvement in terrorism, saying it has done more than any other country in the fight against al-Qaeda.

China won't discuss appointment of bishops with Pope

AFP , BEIJING

Beijing will continue its policy of appointing bishops in the official Chinese church without consulting the Vatican, state religious officials said yesterday.

Joseph Xing Wenzhi was appointed auxiliary bishop of Shanghai last week in the government-backed Catholic church, which says it will only consider forming official ties with the Holy See if the Vatican breaks ties with Taiwan.

"The practices that were applied in Xing's case will continue to be applicable in the selections of further Chinese bishops in the future," the official Xinhua news agency quoted Liu Bainian, vice president of the China Patriotic Catholic Association, as saying.

"There wasn't any link between Xing's nomination and the relations between China and the Vatican. Xing was totally a bishop elected by the masses," Liu said.

The 42-year-old priest was reported to have announced during his inauguration ceremony that he had been nominated by the Holy See, suggesting that he received full backing from the Pope. While Chinese officials have denied the suggestion, the Vatican itself has made no announcement.

Analysts have suggested the Roman Catholic Church had been involved, signalling a possible thawing of ties between Beijing and the Vatican.

Educate the public on copyright law

The International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI) recently brought a lawsuit against the Taiwanese peer-to-peer file sharing operator Ezpeer, because it allows its subscribers to exchange copyrighted music files. But on Thursday, a district level court found Ezpeer not guilty of copyright infringement. This ruling surprised quite a few people.

Many had been skeptical that the court would rule in favor of Ezpeer, giving that in verdicts in the US, Japan and Italy, courts have almost uniformly ruled against similar file-sharing networks, including the notorious Napster.

Of course, just because courts in other countries have ruled in a certain way doesn't mean that Taiwanese courts should blindly follow suit. However, the nation's copyright laws prohibit the unauthorized reproduction and transmission of copyrighted work.

In ruling that Ezpeer did not infringe on copyright, the Shihlin District Court specifically stated in its verdict that the conduct of the operator does not constitute unauthorized reproduction and transmission. In the eyes of many legal commentators, this merely reflected the court's basic lack of understanding about the file sharing technology.

Current Taiwanese copyright laws are virtually identical to those in the US, so it is confusing that verdicts on Internet file sharing networks would be so vastly different. Some think that the ruling reflected a need for the dispute to be settled in civil court. In other countries where file-sharing networks were taken to court, the plaintiffs had filed civil lawsuits against the defendants. However, in this country, the case in question was filed in criminal court.

If criminal charges are too harsh for copyright violators, then legal reforms are in order. It should not be left up to the courts to make arbitrary interpretations that are tantamount to a substantive rewriting or amendment of the law. That is a job reserved for the legislature -- regardless of how inefficient that lawmaking body it may be these days.

There is also concern about the potential impact that the Shihlin District Court's ruling may have on Taiwan's image -- which continues to be viewed as a haven for piracy. In the past, the IFPI launched various campaigns against unauthorized photocopying of textbooks in the nation's universities. High-profile raids were conducted by the prosecutor's office against shops that provide photocopying services near the school campuses.

For a short period of time, such copyright infringement was curtailed. But there was a social backlash against the crackdown, and rallies and protests held by students defending their "right" to infringe on copyright laws further tarnished the nation's image. The practice of photocopying textbooks seems to have gone back to its pre-crackdown levels, despite repeated reassurances by the government and the Ministry of Education that the practice would be halted.

At the end of the day, no amount of raids, lawsuits or other heavy-handed tactics will work as well as educating the public to have respect for copyright laws.

Despite repeated promises, an organized and effective social education campaign implemented by the government has yet to be seen -- unless one takes a few government-funded commercials on TV on the issue into account.

Break free of the `China fever' trap

By the Liberty Times editorial

"China fever" is a global epidemic. While no part of the world can escape from the reach of the disease, the devastation suffered by Taiwan is especially acute.

Is the rise of China an opportunity to strike it rich or a lethal threat? That is a question about which most people feel confused. As a result of constant brainwashing and propaganda by the media, some of our countrymen have become more deceived than others . Naturally, they also fail to detect the dangerous predicament in which they find themselves.

After Deng Xiaoping initiated the reforms and opening-up policy in China, Beijing has adopted a unique political and economic system in which it assimilates capitalistic policies, appropriates land and offers preferential tax treatments. The Beijing government is doing everything in its power to lure foreign investment, which provides the engine for economic growth.

In other words, while the Chinese government continues to pay lip service to socialism, its economic path has made socialism in China little more than window dressing. It remains absolutely unshaken in the political domain, resisting democratic and human-rights ideals. Moreover, political power is concentrated in the hands of a ruling minority, and without any checks or balances or democratic representation. This is the so-called "socialist market economy," commonly known as the "bird-cage economy."

After World War II, Japan and pre-unification West Germany were two examples of economic miracles. To the fascination of many, these countries managed to rise from their post-war ruins to become the world's second and third-largest economies within a mere 20 to 30 years.

The reach of Japan's economic influence was unsurpassed. Against a backdrop of a weakening US economy at the time, US academics had no choice but to concede that "Japan is number one" and called on the aging US enterprises to learn from Japan.

Smaller economies such as the Asia's "four tigers" have also jumped onto the express train to economic development during the past 30 to 40 years.

What distinguishes China from countries such as Japan, West Germany and the "four tigers" are its massive size and 1.3 billion citizens -- advantages unmatched by other countries. As a result, China naturally has a huge market, which naturally invites much interest. Some Taiwanese businessmen and Western enterprises have fallen into the trap and transferred their capital, manpower and technologies to China in search of an illusory dream. The foreign investment in China in recent years is unsurpassed by any other countries in the world.

Backed by foreign investment, the Chinese economy has become seriously over-inflated. On the outside it may look strong, but in reality it is very shaky, challenged by problems such as massive unemployment, excessive defaulting loans, the rapidly increasing wealth gap between the rural and metropolitan areas, deteriorating social and crime problems and a large number of homeless and unemployed workers.

These internal problems could trigger much greater and more serious problems at any time, and could bring the autocratic political regime to the brink of collapse.

There has been increasing concern about the fixed exchange rate of the Chinese currency, trade frictions with China, controversies over the low prices of its manufactured goods, fluctuations in the prices of energy and raw materials in the international community and the number of foreign mergers and acquisitions by Chinese enterprises. These factors have begun to awaken the world to the threats posed by China's rise.

China relies on trade for its economic growth. Therefore, it ought to comply with the principles of a free-market economy to create a win-win situation with its trade partners. However, China relies on political power rather than supply and demand.

A case in point: China remains reluctant about liberating control over foreign exchange and allowing the yuan to appreciate, taking full advantage of its partners in trade. The serious concerns expressed by the US regarding the need to revalue the yuan have been depicted as a type of foreign meddling. How can China succumb to the pressure of the "US Empire?", some ask. This attitude overlooks the fact that, as a result of the under-valuation of the Chinese currency, the US trade deficit toward China has continued to expand, creating a serious financial crisis for the country. If the Chinese currency does not appreciate, the mechanisms of the free-market economy will be seriously distorted and destroyed.

China has deliberately submitted theories about its "peaceful" rise to power. Once China's rise begins to lose speed or is reversed, it will trigger a major economic earthquake.

Most of China's people have not attained middle-class affluence, yet the country has sucked in enough economic nutrients to become a monstrous military hegemony. Mao Zedong once said that China is no hegemony. However, at the time, China was impoverished. People had trouble just surviving. It could not be a hegemony even if it wanted to.

However, the economic growth of recent years has given the Chinese leaders the capacity to make China a military superpower. Therefore, its military budgets undergo double-digit growth each year. Its government deploys intercontinental missiles and its navy frequently invades the waters of neighboring countries, and it buys large amounts of arms from other countries.

In the disputes over the right to exploit oil reserves under the sea, it shows determination to take any necessary action, including going to war. In the first ever national security report to be issued by Taiwan's government, the "rise of China" is explicitly listed as the biggest variable to Taiwan's external security. China's enactment of the "Anti-Secession" Law against a backdrop of strong international opposition is part of its strategy for external expansion. The intention is to engulf Taiwan, so that Taiwan may serve as a stepping-stone to further expansion.

China's rise is not an indicator of constructive dynamics within the global economy. It brings potential for regional military conflict and crisis. It brings disaster, not opportunities, with Taiwan bearing the brunt. For this reason, Taiwan should not hold unrealistic illusions about China's market.

The only way to go for Taiwan is to completely free itself of the spell of China fever, both in terms of economic development and national identity. In the short term, doing so will turn Taiwan into a "normal country," and in the long term it will create a secure home for the generations to come.

TSU will suffer if it betrays its core beliefs

By Chin Heng-wei

Prior to celebrating the fourth anniversary of its founding on Aug. 6, the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) is reported to have mulled direct interaction with China. Appearing as it did in the headlines of the China Times, the TSU's action indeed came as a shock.

The pan-blue camp considered the TSU's move to be to its advantage, as it indicates that the visits by both the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and People First Party (PFP) chairmen to China have triggered a domino effect, causing even the most vociferous pro-independence party to jump on the "China fever" bandwagon. Most pan-greens found the TSU's move unbelievable and suicidal.

It's hardly surprising to see that the TSU is drawing a great deal of criticism after its intentions were made public. In addition, the party's lame attempts to explain its proposed new policy shows that they have yet to grasp the gravity of the situation.

The party official who proposed the policy shift, Director of the TSU's Department of Policy Studies Lee Hsien-jen, announced his resignation in order to take responsibility for the idea. In a move to quickly quell the controversy within the party, the TSU also issued a statement to the press, saying that it was impossible for the TSU to have any interaction with China until Beijing recognizes Taiwan as an independent, sovereign nation.

To defend his position on this issue, TSU Chairman Shu Chin-chiang said that the TSU would not jump on the China bandwagon and that in interacting with Beijing, it would adopt the principle of the "three noes": it would not rule out possibilities, not reject possibilities and not actively pursue such possibilities.

Most party members won't object to that. But the real problem is this. The TSU has now agreed to support "normal" cross-strait relations on two conditions: first, that China stop its restriction of Taiwan's international space. Second, that China not insist on unification as a precondition for talks. If those conditions are met, the TSU has in turn said it will not set independence as a condition for talks. Under these parameters, Shu said, the two sides of the Strait could pursue a normalization of relations. While this is not exactly an about-face, it is certainly a shift to a more moderate position.

It's fine if the TSU takes a more moderate tack. But we must realize that when the TSU shifts, a new political group will immediately take over its current ideological position. This is typical of the political scene in Taiwan. The point is, the TSU will be pronounced dead on the day it begins moving to the moderate center, for its existence as a party is meaningless without its pro-independence stance.

The TSU's shift has a lot to do with the "single-member district, two-vote" electoral system that will be used for future legislative elections. As the "fundamentalist" group in the pan-green camp, the TSU is now worried that they will not be able to survive under the new system unless they adopt a more centrist approach.

To be sure, the new electoral system puts the TSU at a distinct disadvantage. However, will abandoning their core ideology win them more votes? They will likely suffer more than benefit from trying to moderate their stance. What sets the TSU apart and gives it appeal at the ballot box is that it champions establishing Taiwan as an independent country.

There's another, perhaps even more serious question: In light of the recent proposal, do the members of the TSU still represent the ideals of former president Lee Teng-hui? From this incident we can conclude that at least some in the TSU leadership are pursuing narrow party interests above all -- making a mockery of the "Taiwan solidarity" they claim to best represent.

Chin Heng-wei is a political commentator based in Taipei.