Pentagon highlights threat to Taiwan

RAPID MODERNIZATION: China is increasing its budget for military procurements and heightening its rhetoric, and although it can't take Taiwan yet, it will soon be able to

By Mac William Bishop

STAFF REPORTER

"Beijing sees Washington and ... Tokyo as the principal hurdles to any attempt to use military force."－ by Pentagon report

Beijing is willing to use force to achieve its political goals, and although China's military does not yet have the ability to conquer Taiwan, especially if other countries intervene in a cross-strait conflict, the military gap between the two nations is widening, the Pentagon said in a report released yesterday.

In addition to Chinese efforts to create a modern military, the report cited Taiwan's lack of progress in military procurement as a major problem.

The report also warned of the possibility that the Chinese Communist Party could, nevertheless, lead China into a war through overconfidence or desperation caused by internal upheavals.

The US Department of Defense's annual report to Congress on "The Military Power of the People's Republic of China" was released yesterday after weeks of internal government wrangling over various details included in the document.

The report highlights the growing concern among US officials over China's rapid modernization of its military forces and pugnacity regarding Taiwan, as well as frustration over the special arms budget bill that has been blocked by the pan-blues in the legislature.

"Taiwan's defense spending has steadily declined in real terms over the past decade, even as Chinese air, naval, and missile force modernization has increased the need for countermeasures that would enable Taiwan to avoid being quickly overwhelmed," the report said.

The report also, on two separate occasions, points out that the NT$410.8 billion (US$15 billion) special arms budget -- which would allow Taiwan to purchase eight diesel-electric submarines, 12 P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft and three PAC-3 Patriot anti-missile batteries from the US -- is awaiting approval by the Legislative Yuan.

Meanwhile, China was becoming ever stronger, the report said.

"The cross-strait military balance appears to be shifting toward Beijing as a result of China's sustained economic growth, growing diplomatic leverage, and improvements in the PLA's [People's Liberation Army] military capabilities, including those that provide Beijing options short of full-scale invasion," the Pentagon said in the report.

"Beijing continues to see the threat and possible use of force as integral to its policy of dissuading Taiwan from pursuing independence and moving Taiwan ultimately to unite with the mainland," the report said.

However, it also said that a military strike against Taiwan would most likely not accomplish Beijing's stated goal of unification.

"China does not yet possess the military capability to accomplish with confidence its political objectives on the island, particularly when confronted with outside intervention," the report said.

"Outside intervention" would almost certainly be in the form of US and Japanese military action, according to the report.

"Beijing sees Washington and, increasingly, Tokyo as the principal hurdles to any attempt to use military force to coerce or capture Taiwan," the report said. Therefore, "Beijing will pursue diplomatic efforts to keep the United States and Japan from taking action to support Taiwan."

Although China has made significant advances in its military capabilities over the past decade, there were still serious deficiencies in its capabilities and overall structure, the report said.

But that would change with time, it said.

"The US intelligence community estimates that China will require until the end of this decade or later for its military modernization program to produce a modern force, capable of defeating a moderate-size adversary," the report said.

China is estimated to spend between US$50 billion and US$70 billion a year on its military budget, making it the third largest defense spender in the world. The US, which spends more money on defense than any other nation, has a military budget of approximately US$400 billion.

One of the key goals to China's military transformation is to thwart intervention by the US or other countries in the Taiwan Strait, the Pentagon said.

"Preventing foreign military intervention, particularly along China's coast, has been a goal for Beijing throughout history, reinforcing the geostrategic value of Taiwan for China's security planners," the report said.

Currently, Beijing does not appear to be contemplating military action against Taiwan, primarily because of two factors: Lack of military capabilities and "potential repercussions of any use of force against Taiwan."

One of those repercussions would be severe, long-term damage to China's economy, in part because Taiwan is the authoritarian giant's largest source of foreign direct investment.

Still, the report said, there was plenty of room for the Chinese Communist Party to miscalculate its military capabilities and the international situation, thus leading to a cross-strait conflict involving the US and Japan.

"China's leaders may overestimate the proficiency of their forces," the report said.

"Beijing could use limited strikes, employing information operations, special operations forces on Taiwan, and SRBM [Short-range Ballistic Missiles] or air strikes at key military or political sites, to try to break the will of Taiwan's leadership and population," the Pentagon wrote.

"Although Beijing might view these as a complement to non-military coercion and as less than a full use of force, others may view such actions differently," it said.

"Such a Chinese miscalculation could lead to a full-fledged conflict."

US bill punishes EU nations that sell China srms

TONED DOWN: The measure was a weaker version of a measure that failed last week; but it is unlikely that it will get Senate approval this year

REUTERS AND AP, WASHINGTON

The US House of Representatives on Tuesday unanimously cleared legislation aimed at discouraging the European Union from easing an arms embargo on China, after removing provisions that critics said would cut into trade with China.

Some members of the EU, including France, have sought an end to the embargo, which was imposed after the Chinese military crushed student protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989.

The House passed a weaker version of a measure that failed last week. But House International Relations Committee Chairman Henry Hyde said it still reflected "the profound concerns we have about European arms technology in China's growing arsenal."

The measure, included in a bill authorizing foreign relations policies for next year, requires the administration to report to Congress annually on European countries that are aiding China's military build up and on European governments with policies that support those sales.

It also expands US export licensing requirements, but without sanctions to deny export licenses for dual use technology sales to foreign companies that sell arms to China.

Hyde, an Illinois Republican, said the measure was revised "to make it abundantly clear that its purpose and provisions relate to international transfer of armaments and associated technology to China, not to normal commercial trade involving the civilian economy."

Hyde said while the bill could be stronger, "For now, I'm persuaded the legislation does what is needed to reflect the profound concerns we have about European arms technology in China's growing arsenal."

Small Business Committee Chairman Donald Manzullo, an Illinois Republican who fought the earlier measure, embraced this version. He said it was "aimed toward making sure we preserve our manufacturing base, but at the same time we don't give any technology to the People's Liberation Army."

The outlook for the legislation was unclear as the Senate's version of the foreign relations authorization bill became bogged down on other issues and was considered a long shot to pass this year.

Hyde had hoped to pass the earlier version of the legislation on the "suspension" calendar, which allows for an expedited vote but requires a two thirds majority for passage. Lawmakers voted 215 203 for the measure, short of the necessary margin.

US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, speaking in Washington, said Tuesday that the latest Pentagon report on China's military illustrates why the arms embargo should be kept in place.

Rumsfeld said China is at a strategic crossroads.

"As I see it, China is on a path where they are determined to increase their economy, the opportunities for their people, and to enter the world community," Rumsfeld said.

He said Chinese leaders have been doing "a number of things to leave the world with the impression that they are a good place for investment."

Parties spar over Pentagon report

WAR OF WORDS: The DPP used the report to attack the pan-blue camp parties for blocking the special arms-purchase budget, with the KMT responding that the fault lies with the government, while the PFP actually defended China's missile build-up

AGENCIES , TAIPEI AND BEIJING

A US report on China's military power provoked a new war of words between the nation's ruling and opposition parties yesterday, with the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) legislative caucus accusing the major opposition parties of "not telling friend from foe" by blocking the special arms budget at the legislature.

Lai Ching-te, secretary-general of the DPP caucus, said the two opposition parties, which have blocked the bill in the Procedure Committee, are harboring illusions about China.

Lai called on the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the People First Party (PFP), to realize who Taiwan's real enemy is, and not to drive Taiwan toward an abyss.

Quoting the annual Pentagon report -- which warns that China's modernizing military could pose a threat to the region -- Lai said the US has taken actions to counter China's growing military might, such as urging the EU not to lift the arms embargo against China, listing the Taiwan Strait as part of the "common strategic objective" in its defense pact with Japan, and re-launching nuclear technology cooperation with India.

His KMT counterpart, Chen Chieh, said it is not surprising for the US to interpret the cross-strait military imbalance this way because it is pushing to sell its weapons to Taiwan.

What is important for cross-strait relations is for the leadership on both sides to work for peace, to cooperate in developing their economies and to avoid an arms race, Chen said.

"Only in this way can a win-win situation be created for the people on both sides of the Strait," he added.

He called on the ruling party and the government not to shift the responsibility to others for failing to pass the arms purchase bill.

"The KMT is not against buying new weapons. As long as the DPP government is willing to use the regular annual budget for that purpose, and not to leave the debt to our children and grandchildren, then we can discuss it," he said, adding that the DPP is to blame for the legislative deadlock, and not anyone else.

Chen also blamed the nation's shrinking defense budget on the DPP government.

Since the government gained power in 2000, Taiwan's economy has not done well and government revenue has been shrinking, forcing it to lower the defense budget, he said.

Lin Yu-fang, a PFP lawmaker and a convener of the legislature's defense committee, said the US report made it clear that China is deploying missiles across the Strait in order to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence.

By publishing that point of view, the US government is "speaking for China," he said, implying the two giants have a common interest in stopping Taiwan from declaring formal independence.

"China deploying those missiles against Taiwan does not mean it will fire them at Taiwan," Lin said.

However, he noted that the missiles are China's best deterrent.

If Taiwan does proclaim independence, they could create a "psychological impact" more effective than anything else, he said.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of National Defense is studying the Pentagon report, according to military spokesman Liu Chih-jian said yesterday.

Commenting on the report, Liu said that the major challenges to Taiwan's deterrence capabilities are: China's military build-up tipping the balance against Taiwan; Taiwan's declining military budget; and the special arms procurement bill remaining blocked in the opposition-dominated legislature.

The report contends that China's military build-up is growing at a pace that is tipping the military balance against Taiwan, and that Taiwan has failed to keep pace.

On the other side of the Strait, China's foreign minister dismissed the report, and said his nation's rise would be peaceful.

"China, remember, will continue to pursue a path of peaceful development," Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing said at a signing ceremony to establish the offices of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Beijing.

"China not only poses no threat to anyone, we also are willing to establish friendship and all kinds of win-win cooperation with other countries to push forward cooperative development," Li said in response to a question about the Pentagon report.

Vice Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said in a statement: "The report unreasonably attacks the modernization of Chinese national defense and rudely castigates China's normal national defense constructions and military deployment."

"The report overlooks facts, endeavors to spread the `China threat theory,' rudely interferes with China's internal affairs and foments discord between China and other countries," the statement said.

Pentagon's warning no surprise

People's Liberation Army Major General Zhu Chenghu shocked foreign correspondents in Beijing last week when he said that China could use nuclear weapons against the US in the event of any military conflict with the US over Taiwan, adding that "we Chinese will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all cities east of Xian. Of course, the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese."

Although Zhu's belligerent tone has drawn US condemnation, Beijing has yet to respond except to say that "Zhu was merely expressing his personal views." It is hardly surprising that in an authoritarian nation such as China, soldiers should seek to stand out by their hawkish views. The Chinese leadership is apparently reluctant to condemn Zhu's words because he is simply expressing their own thoughts. It is also hard to imagine that he spoke out without official approval.

It is understandable that both Taiwan and the US were stunned by Zhu's remarks, for democratic societies do not tolerate a military officer exceeding his authority in such a way. The duty of a soldier is to remain neutral and steer clear of politics. If Zhu had been a soldier in a democratic country, he would have been severely criticized and probably would have suffered professionally.

Zhu's comments were typical of the Chinese military, indicating the haughty and bellicose nature of the PLA. The rising jingoism in China in recent years has gone hand-in-hand with its military expansion. This has warned the whole world that China's so-called "peaceful rising" is anything but that.

It is no surprise, therefore, that a Pentagon report published on Tuesday in Washington affirmed the rapid pace of China's military expansion. The report said that China now has between 650 and 730 CSS-6 and CSS-7 short-range missiles targeting Taiwan, and that the number is increasing by around 100 every year. This alone is frightening, quite apart from the expansion in other areas.

This high level of military expansion shows us that Zhu's statement is anything but an isolated incident or the opinion of just one officer. There are probably thousands of people in the PLA whose thinking is identical to Zhu's -- he's just the one who spoke publicly.

The threat that China now poses is an issue that Taiwan and its neighbors need to resolve. In fact, it concerns countries around the world. The EU certainly must take a more responsible attitude in its considerations over whether to lift its arms embargo on China. It should stop focusing on the commercial benefits of lifting the ban and do the responsible thing to help ensure regional peace in Asia and the rest of the world.

As for the pan-blue camp, its members have simply buried their heads in the sand as far as China's military threat is concerned. Although they have long refused to face reality, hopefully pressure from the US and other nations will convince its leaders to greenlight passage of the long-delayed special arms purchase bill.

In the face of China's military threat, Taiwan has no choice but to acquire the means to defend itself effectively. It must not always count so heavily on the aid of its allies.

Zhu's threats will win Hu's favor

By Paul Lin

Comments by Major General Zhu Chenghu, dean of the Defense Affairs Institute at China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) National Defense University, on the use of nuclear weapons against the US have created a strong backlash in Washington. It will be interesting to see whether this will result in any changes to US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's plans to visit China for the first time later this year.

There have been some attempts to tone down Zhu's statements, with officials saying that he was simply expressing his own opinions. However, the hawkish faction in China is so vociferous that if Zhu hadn't said what he did, someone else would have. This is because of the way power is distributed within the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) leadership.

According to information provided by CNN's China specialist Willy Wo Lap Lam (林和立), President Hu Jintao has completed the personnel arrangements for the CCP's 17th National Congress in 2007. He is said to have become immediately enamored with power after becoming leader, and is now planning to maintain his hold on power until 2017. That would mean that he plans to retire at the party's 19th National Congress, when he is 74 -- which would still be younger than his predecessor Jiang Zemin, who retired at 78.

If Hu wants to show the determination and boldness of a leader, the best area to do so would be in foreign policy. If Jiang pursued great nation diplomacy, then Hu is taking the attitude of "power diplomacy." Academics both in China and abroad are pushing for the abandonment of Deng Xiaoping's policy of keeping a low profile.

As a result, the hawkish faction is rising, and Zhu's threat was just one expression of the views of China's military. There have been others. Prior to Zhu's statement, Zhang Xushan, former deputy commander of the navy, when answering questions from Chinese citizens online on the SINA Web site, said that if Japan insists on claiming the Diaoyutais, he believes that a war is likely.

If the Chinese armed forces regard the past use of a military threat against Taiwan as a "civil war," its threats against the US and Japan can be seen as preparation for a "foreign war," and one step further toward a nation achieving territorial expansion.

On PLA Day on Aug. 1, Hu is planning to promote six naval officers to the rank of admiral. This personnel change will be made less than a year after Hu promoted two admirals on Sept. 19 last year, a week after he became head of the military. These actions make clear Hu's ambition to have complete control over the armed forces.

He is seeking, on the one hand, to eliminate Jiang's influence within the military and, on the other, is to ingratiate himself with the military to win their support. Given this situation, it is only natural that the PLA should seek to do itself credit by putting on a bellicose demeanor.

Before Hu took control of the Central Military Commission last September, He Chongyuan, then editor-in-chief of the Global Times, was promoted to vice president of the People's Daily. Hu's recognition of He was due to the Global Times' close relationship with the armed forces and its pugnacious commentaries.

Therefore, China's willingness to pay a high price to acquire the US energy firm Unocal Corp at this juncture is not simply an economic issue. Rather, it is a political and military acquisition, and is regarded as a benchmark for China's prosperity and military expansion. When China threatens the US, how can the US ignore it?

In reality, China's belligerence is not limited to military issues. Beijing recently restated a prohibition barring TV stations from launching joint ventures with outside investors, lest such ventures break its news blockade.

The same concerns have also been applied to the field of education. At the end of last month, Chongqing Normal University passed a regulation stipulating that promiscuous students would be expelled. This regulation was thought to be an independent incident, but in fact, the same guidelines, proposed by the government, will be adopted by all schools beginning on Sept. 1.

As soon as Hu became president, he paid homage to Mao Zedong, a move which heralded his increasingly hard-line policies.

The only area in which regulations have been relaxed is the financial sector: Foreign financial institutions can now invest in state-owned banks, though they cannot have a controlling interest. In other words, these institutions do not have the power or right to make decisions, but they still have to assume all the investment risk. This is no different from demanding that foreign-invested banks remain on the "socialist" bandwagon.

After Deng's death on Feb. 19, 1997, Jiang launched military exercises to display the great power in his hands. At that time, the armed forces also put on airs. General Xiong Guangkai also threatened to use nuclear weapons against Los Angeles, which earned him promotion the following year to deputy chief of general staff of the PLA -- from an assistant of the chief of general staff -- and then to full general in 2000.

Xiong's example has become an incentive for military personnel to get involved in politics. Whether Zhu's threats represented his own opinion or Hu's will determine whether he holds onto his job. Given the past leadership shuffles by Hu in order to gain power, it is likely that Zhu will walk Xiong's path, despite being a bit more "precocious."

Paul Lin is a freelance writer based in New York.

Beijing is ready to use its nuclear weapons

By Li Hua-chiu

During an official briefing for a Hong Kong delegation on July 14, Chinese Major General Zhu Chenghu, dean of the Defense Affairs Institute of the National Defense University said that Beijing could respond with nuclear weapons if the US militarily interfered in the Taiwan issue. I would like to interpret this by citing the viewpoints proposed in the article, Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?: Three Models in Search of a Bomb by Scott Sagan, director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University.

First, the security model: a nation develops nuclear weapons to strengthen its defenses against nuclear threat from outside.

China was repeatedly threatened by US nuclear weapons in both the Korean War and the two crises across the Taiwan Strait. Russia also targeted its nuclear arms against China when the two countries fell foul of each other in the 1960s. China has hastened its development of nuclear arms in order to resist such pressure and secure its long-term growth. Viewed from Zhu's "personal" opinion, we can see that Beijing is hinting at its strength, and the possibility of using nuclear arms when any foreign force interferes in a cross-strait war.

Second, the domestic politics model: a nation develops nuclear weapons for its national leaders to gain power and interests domestically.

After Chinese President Hu Jintao became chairman of the Central Military Commission last September, he adjusted its membership right away. Viewed from the new members, Beijing is eager to build a systematic and all-round joint operation mechanism of the three services in response to the new international strategic trend. If we examine their background, those who have been involved in military affairs against Taiwan have gradually come to the fore. We can therefore predict the focus of its military development.

China has always attached great importance to the utterances of its top government officials. Without the leadership's tacit consent, Zhu wouldn't have dared make such statements. Judging from this, Chinese leaders are in fact reaffirming their determination to restrain Taiwan independence by force through Zhu's words, so as to comfort the hawks and consolidate their power, as well as that of the regime.

Third: the norms model: a nation develops nuclear weapons to identify with the world's advanced countries.

After the Cold War era, although countries have different motives regarding their development of nuclear weapons, the political gains and international influence of their moves are mostly similar. Thus, developing nuclear arms can strengthen not only their "soft power," including their international strategic roles and influence, but also their "hard power," such as military strength.

Motivated by this, Beijing has put a great amount of money and manpower into the development of nuclear arms, so it can play a crucial role after its economic take-off with the world's four other leading nuclear states -- the US, Russia, Britain and France.

To sum up, I believe that Zhu's remarks revealed that China is already capable of stopping foreign interference in its internal affairs by nuclear force, and is also able to resolve Taiwan independence by the same method. Although his statement caused an uproar, I believe that China is ready now. Otherwise, Beijing would not make such comments at a time when Sino-US relations are so delicate.

As for the question of whether a new wave of competition over the development of nuclear weapons will be triggered between China and the US, or even affect the overall international situation, these are issues that deserve our attention.

Li Hua-chiu is a part-time researcher with the National Policy Foundation.