China's naval exploits trouble Japan

BE VIGILANT: Japan warned in its annual defense white paper yesterday that China's fast-modernizing military needs to be monitored, especially plans for a `blue-water navy'

AGENCIES , TOKYO

China's military modernization, including apparent plans for a deep-water navy, needs to be monitored closely to determine whether it exceeds requirements for self-defense, a Japanese defense report said yesterday.

The annual defense white paper, which comes at a time of strained Sino-Japanese ties, echoes a US Defense Department report in July that said China's fast-modernizing military could pose a regional threat.

Defense Minister Yoshinori Ohno said, however, that Japan did not see China as a military threat.

"But there are issues that require attention ... and we urge China to improve its transparency" on issues such as military spending, Kyodo news agency quoted him as saying.

The report, compiled by the defense ministry, said the Japanese public had become "exceedingly concerned" about the activities of Chinese vessels.

The report noted the intrusion of a Chinese nuclear-powered submarine into waters off Japan's Okinawa islands in November as an example of increasing Chinese naval activity close to Japan.

"Including the incident ... involving the Chinese nuclear-powered submarine, Chinese naval vessels have been navigating in waters near Japan in recent years," it said.

China said the submarine entered Japanese waters by mistake.

Japan has been urging China to explain the reason for the increase in marine activity in hopes that greater transparency will deepen trust, the white paper said.

Japan is also concerned about Chinese gas exploration in the East China Sea near what Japan considers to be its exclusive economic zone, the report said.

Japan must be on guard against such activities, partly since China is said to be striving to expand its navy's reach, it said.

"Regarding the pick-up in China's maritime activity, the trends need to be watched since ... it has also been pointed out that the Chinese navy is aiming in the future to become a so-called `blue-water navy,'" the white paper said.

The report reiterated the need to monitor China's efforts to modernize its nuclear and missile forces.

"It is necessary to keep paying attention to these modernization trends to carefully evaluate whether the objective of the modernization of the military exceeds the scope needed for China's defense," the white paper said.

The report also stressed Japan's concern about China's passage in March of an "Anti-Secession" Law authorizing the use of "non-peaceful means" to unify with Taiwan.

Beijing considers Taiwan, split politically from the mainland since 1949, to be a part of China.

"Our country, the United States and the European Union expressed concerns over the law, in view of its negative effects on the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait and on the relationship between China and Taiwan, which had been improving," the white paper said.

The Taiwan issue is one of many sore points in the Japan-China relationship, including Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's annual visits to a war shrine in Tokyo.

Japan's lower house lifts visa rules for Taiwan

WELCOME WAIVER: The lower house of Japan's parliament yesterday said it will drop requirements for visas for Taiwanese tourists, possibly forever

AFP AND CNA , TOKYO AND TAIPEI

"If the Japanese government can realize its plan to waive visas for Taiwanese tourists on a regular basis, it would not only symbolize the good friendship between the two countries but also show [that Japan] values the 23 million Taiwanese people." － President Chen Shui-bian

The lower house of the Japanese parliament agreed yesterday to waive the visa requirement for Taiwanese tourists.

Japan had already suspended the visa requirement for Taiwanese tourists between March 25 and Sept. 25 to encourage them to attend the World Exposition, an international showcase of technology and innovation in Aichi Prefecture.

The House of Representatives passed the bill unanimously at a plenary session yesterday afternoon. The bill will now be referred to the upper house of the Diet for approval. If it clears the upper house, Taiwanese tourists will permanently be allowed to enter Japan without a visa.

President Chen Shui-bian thanked Japan for planning to grant permanent visa-free treatment to Taiwanese tourists.

Praise

Chen praised the move as a step toward closer relations with Japan, which has no formal diplomatic ties with Taipei.

"If the Japanese government can realize its plan to waive visas for Taiwanese tourists on a regular basis, it would not only symbolize the good friendship between the two countries but also show [that Japan] values the 23 million Taiwanese people," Chen said while receiving Japanese lawmaker Seshiro Eto at the Presidential Office.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) also welcomed the move and an official said, "We appreciate the Japanese lower house's friendly move. Hopefully, the bill can clear the upper house as soon as possible to allow for its early enactment to further boost bilateral exchanges."

The granting of permanent visa-free status for Taiwan passport holders will mark a significant breakthrough in substantive Taiwan-Japan relations, the MOFA official said.

The bill was initiated by the head of the lower house's legal affairs committee and passed with the support of the Liberal Democratic Party and its ruling coalition partner, Komeito, and the opposition Democratic Party of Japan.

Necessary

As Japan does not maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, the bill is necessary if Japan wants to offer a permanent visa waiver for Taiwanese citizens. Japan's existing exit and entry regulations only authorize visa waivers for citizens from countries that maintain diplomatic ties with Japan.

Taiwan has been Japan's second-largest tourist source after South Korea. Japanese parliamentarians said they hope that the permanent visa waiver will attract even more Taiwanese tourists to Japan after the Aichi World Expo and further boost bilateral cultural and commercial exchanges.

Furthermore, the Japanese government has launched a "Visit Japan" campaign aimed at drawing 10 million foreign tourists in 2010 compared with 5.73 million in 2003.

China, Russia set to begin their first joint military exercises on Aug. 18

AP , BEIJING

China and Russia will be holding their first joint military exercise on Aug. 18-25 with nearly 100,000 troops in two sites on China's and Russia's eastern coasts, the Chinese Defense Ministry announced yesterday.

The announcement highlights warming ties between Beijing and Moscow after decades of Cold War hostility.

Their reconciliation has been driven in part by mutual unease at US power and a fear of Islamic extremism in Central Asia.

The exercises with army, navy and air forces will take place on China's Shandong Peninsula and in the Russian city of Vladivostok and in nearby waters, the ministry said.

The ministry did not give any additional details about the planned activities.

The exercises are meant to "strengthen the capability of the two armed forces in jointly striking international terrorism, extremism and separatism," the ministry said in a statement carried by the official Xinhua news agency. Plans for a joint exercise were first announced in December.

The ministry attempted to reassure China's neighbors, saying that the exercises "neither aim at any third party nor concern ... the interests of any third country."

Earlier Russian news reports suggested the exercises might be held near Taiwan, serving as a rehearsal for a Chinese invasion of the country.

Russian news reports said that Moscow also had asked to hold the exercises in China's Muslim-dominated desert northwest, which borders Central Asia, a region where both governments worry about possible threats from Islamic extremists.

The two governments have also invited observers from other governments in the six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security group led by Beijing and Moscow, the ministry said.

The group, meant to combat separatism and Islamic extremism in Central Asia, also includes Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.

The goal of the drills is to "deepen Sino-Russian mutual trust, promote mutual friendship and enhance the cooperation and coordination of the two armed forces in the areas of defense and security," the ministry said in a statement.

China's playing chicken

By Huang Jei-hsuan

Major General Zhu Chenghu of the People's Liberation Army declared on July 15 that China might use nuclear arms on "hundreds" of cities in the US, in case of a US intervention to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan. And, reflecting the communist nation's resolve, China is prepared to lose all cities east of Xian, according to Zhu.

Zhu's talk, which doubtlessly was sanctioned by Beijing's top leadership and conveyed to the international media only after thorough deliberation, attempted to both give an assessment on the consequence of the conflict -- and deliver an apparent threat at the same time.

Nevertheless, his estimate on the extent of destruction China might receive appears to be on the conservative side.

For instance, if the US could survive the first strike, its retaliation would only stop at the complete destruction of China.

And, far more likely, the US would initiate a pre-emptive strike at the first hint of a pending Chinese attack on Taiwan now that the US is made aware of Beijing's intention to widen a heretofore mutually understood local confrontation into a global calamity.

In other words, China's military is not strong enough for Beijing to use the threat of mutually assured destruction as a tool to stop the US from intervening on Taiwan's behalf.

Furthermore, Zhu was implying that China would sacrifice countless Chinese civilians, all for the cause of "taking back" an island that it never actually owned.

What's most striking is how a "tradeoff" in loss of lives between the two sides can even be included in the calculation as a way of scaring off the opponent. Beijing obviously is saying that human lives mean much less to China than to the US, and that China can "afford" -- and is "willing" -- to lose millions of its own people.

Beijing is shamelessly flaunting China's "human wave" advantage again. This is in spite of the economic progress of the last 10 years. Any vestige of a delusion the Taiwanese people might have regarding unification with China should now vanish completely.

So should China's carefully cultivated "peaceful rising" image.

As for scare tactics, Zhu's talk actually evoked more alarm than fear internationally.

For example, on July 18, US President George W. Bush inked an agreement with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India to share dual-use nuclear technology with the world's second most populated state.

This is in spite of the fact that India has not signed the Treaty on Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and that the animosity has not ceased between India and Pakistan -- an ally of the US in its war against al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Bush has decided that the need to build up India's military capability as a counterbalance to the rise of China outweighs all those concerns.

Then, on July 27, the US' top commander in Iraq, General George Casey, told the press that American troops will start withdrawing from Iraq around mid-2006. That means the problems associated with a high concentration of military resources in Iraq at the expense of other trouble spots -- including the Taiwan Strait -- may see some relief.

What's remarkable is that Casey's comment seems to have the tacit support of both US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Bush, who barely a month ago vehemently voiced their objection to setting any kind of timetable for withdrawal.

Therefore, by way of Zhu's announcement, Beijing apparently elevated the importance of the cross-strait conflict to another level.

Beijing is playing a dangerous game of chicken and the US is reacting to it.

But what's strangely absent is a torrent of worldwide condemnation on Beijing's bellicose outburst of such far-reaching significance.

This again attests to the international community's moral bankruptcy in allowing Beijing to define the cross-strait issue as a "domestic" one.

Increasingly, the US' "one-China" policy -- not to mention China's -- is becoming detrimental to peace in the region and beyond.

In the meantime, again through Zhu's talk, Beijing might have unintentionally -- albeit implicitly -- admitted to its audience, both internal and external, that a military attack on Taiwan could be suicidal to China.

If that were the case, the advocate for Taiwan's sufficient deterrent capability might have accidentally collected a backhanded endorsement from the most unlikely source -- Beijing.

Huang Jei-hsuan

California

Judge China by those it befriends

By Ralph Cossa

They say you can judge people by the company they keep. The same can be said about countries. So what does it say about China when its foreign minister, Li Zhaoxing, skips the annual ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) ministerial meeting to go visit Myanmar, at the same time that Chinese President Hu Jintao is welcoming Zimbabwe dictator Robert Mugabe to Beijing with full honors? This is the same China which responded to the carnage in Uzbekistan by inviting its president, Islam Karimov, to Beijing for a 21-gun salute in May, within two weeks of the Andizhan massacre.

This is the same China, one might add, that has systematically blocked stronger UN Security Council action against the genocidal government in Sudan and prevented the council from discussing North Korea's flagrant violation of international nuclear and human rights norms. As one surveys the globe's pariah regimes, it seems the one thing they all have in common is the same best friend: China.

Li's actions are particularly revealing. Unlike his counterparts from Washington, Tokyo and New Delhi, Li did show up in Vientiane for several ASEAN-related meetings, including China's one-on-one with the 10 ASEAN states and a gathering of the ASEAN Plus Three forum (also involving Japan and South Korea).

His decision to skip the broader ARF meeting, which includes the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other non-East Asian states, clearly signals China's preference for "Asia-for-Asians" forums, the ones that specifically exclude the US. This continues the diminishing of the ARF that began when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice decided to skip the Vientiane festivities entirely, sending her deputy, Robert Zoellick, in her place.

Earlier in the week, Myanmar had announced its decision to skip its turn as ASEAN (and ARF) chair next year so it could "focus its full attention on the ongoing national reconciliation and democratization process."ASEAN had been facing intense pressure from Washington and others to bypass Yangon unless there was some significant movement toward political reform.

Beijing argued against this "interference in Myanmar's internal affairs." Going to Myanmar instead of the ARF demonstrates Beijing's solidarity with Yangon and its displeasure over ASEAN's and Washington's strong-arm tactics. It also underscores one of ASEAN's greatest concerns: that putting pressure on Myanmar drives it deeper into Beijing's camp.

(It also appears evident that Myanmar has decided to "do the right thing" -- give up its chairmanship next year -- so that it can more easily avoid doing the really right thing: releasing Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest and seriously moving forward on democratization.)

Meanwhile, China's intense courting of Uzbekistan -- Hu made a reciprocal state visit to Tashkent in June -- also has had immediate benefits.

This past weekend Uzbekistan announced that it was withdrawing its permission for US troops to use its airbase at Karshi-Khanabad, mere weeks after the Chinese-organized Shanghai Cooperation Organization (involving Russia and four Central Asian states) had called on Washington to set a deadline for withdrawing from military bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, despite the important role these bases play in pursuing the war on terrorism. It's no wonder US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld made a quick trip to Bishkek last week to help ensure US forces could continue to use Kyrgyz bases.

It is much harder to come up with any rationale that would be sufficient to justify befriending Mugabe, whose gross violations of human rights have resulted in travel bans preventing him from going to Europe or the US. A recent UN report said Mugabe's controversial slum demolition campaign has been carried out in "an indiscriminate and unjustified manner, with indifference to human suffering;" UN Secretary General Kofi Annan called it a "catastrophic injustice" to the poor people of Zimbabwe. Beijing, on the other hand, expressed confidence in Mugabe's ability to handle this "internal affair."

I am not a China-basher. I think cooperative, constructive relations between Washington and Beijing serve the national security interests of both nations and contribute significantly to regional stability, and that economic and (limited) political reform in China have helped to move the Middle Kingdom back into a position of prominence. China also deserves some credit for its constructive role in arranging the six-party talks aimed at resolving the nuclear standoff with North Korea.

But, even as Washington applauds growing cooperation with Beijing on issues such as Korean Peninsula denuclearization, currency revaluation and a modest reduction in cross-strait tensions with Taiwan, it cannot help but notice an increasingly active Chinese diplomatic campaign aimed at protecting, if not emboldening, some of the globe's most repressive regimes.

One hopes that the first Sino-US "Strategic Dialogue," which starts this week in Beijing between Zoellick and his Chinese counterparts, will take a candid look at the sour as well as the sweet aspects of Chinese diplomacy, and how they impact the broader relationship.

In the meantime, those who seem quick to praise China's so-called "soft power" should take a closer look at the values and ideals Beijing seems intent on fostering and protecting. Before jumping on the China bandwagon, they may want to glance inside and see who their fellow passengers would be.

Ralph Cossa is president of the Pacific Forum CSIS, a Honolulu-based non-profit research institute affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, and senior editor of Comparative Connections, a quarterly electronic journal.