20051031

US, Japan agree on revamping alliance

NEW ERA: The agreement signed in Washington on Saturday will give Japan an expanded role in the two countries' defense planning, and tighten military ties

AFP , WASHINGTON

The US and Japan agreed on Saturday to sharply cut US forces in Okinawa, deploy a powerful missile defense radar in Japan and tighten army ties in a major realignment of the main US military alliance in Asia.

The US will move 7,000 marines from Okinawa to Guam, reducing its force on the island to 11,000, Japanese defense chief Yoshinori Ohno said. US officials said they hope to accomplish the move within six years.

Japan, in turn, committed to an expansion in the roles and missions of its military both in the defense of Japan and in international missions that do not involve the use of force.

"I believe we are in fact opening a new era," Ohno said at a news conference here with US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura.

"We are now talking about joint activities in various areas between Japan and the United States in order to improve the peace and security around the world," he said.

The ministers endorsed a 14-page document entitled "US-Japan Alliance: Transformation and Realignment for the Future" that lays out broad plans for revamping the alliance. They agreed to work out implementation of the plans by March.

"Change is always hard," Rumsfeld said. "The task now is to see to the implementation in a way that is satisfactory from everyone's standpoint."

US defense officials said this is one of the biggest changes in the defense relationship between the two countries since the end of World War II.

It comes amid tensions with North Korea over its nuclear weapons programs and growing concern over China's military buildup that the Pentagon has said threatens the military balance in the region.

The document said the two countries "reemphasized the persistent challenges in the Asia-Pacific region that create unpredictability and uncertainty and underscored the need to pay attention to the modernization of military capabilities in the region."

Japan agreed to intensified cooperation in missile defense, including the deployment on its territory of an X-band radar, a powerful radar used to track and target intercontinental ballistic missile warheads in space.

The US and Japan also plan to develop a "common operational picture" with US and Japanese command centers co-located at Yokota Air Base in Japan, it said. Close and continuous coordination at every level is "essential to dissuade destabilizing military build-ups, to deter aggression and to respond to diverse security challenges," the report said.

Koizumi vows revision of pacifist constitution

AFP , TOKYO

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi vowed yesterday to give Japan's military a firm legal basis by revising the pacifist post-war constitution.

"A national consensus is now being formed on the constitutional provision of [the Self-Defense Forces] following years of discussions," Koizumi said in a speech at a troop review ceremony at an Air Self-Defense Force base in Hyakuri, northeast of Tokyo.

"I will do my best to improve an environment at home and overseas in which the Self-Defense Forces can fulfill their missions in style," the prime minister said.

He made the remarks two days after his Liberal Democratic Party drafted its version of a substitute for the 1947 constitution.

The draft kept intact a paragraph of Article Nine of the US-inspired constitution, which says "the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes."

But it cut out a paragraph which says "land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained."

Instead, the draft says: "In order to secure peace and the independence of our country as well as the security of the state and the people, military forces for self-defense shall be maintained with the prime minister of the cabinet as the supreme commander."

The draft also says self-defense forces "may engage in activities conducted in international cooperation to secure peace and security of the international community."

Japanese troops have been limited to a non-combat, logistical role in international peacekeeping operations.

But Koizumi broke with tradition by deploying some 600 troops on a reconstruction and humanitarian mission in southern Iraq since late 2003.

It was Japan's first deployment to a country where fighting is ongoing since its World War II defeat. To avoid violating the pacifist constitution, the government says the troops operate in a "non-combat zone" within Iraq.

MAC comments on Chinese visits

CROSS-STRAIT POLICY: The agency's head responded after the president laid out conditions for the head of China's Taiwan Affairs Office to be allowed into Taiwan

By Shih Hsiu-chuan

STAFF REPORTER

He made the remarks on Saturday night while campaigning for Chen Chien-ming, the Taiwan Solidarity Union's candidate for Keelung City mayor.

"If Wang is not allowed to attend the APEC summit, [China] don't even think that Chen Yunlin will be able to come [to Taiwan]," Chen said.

"[Or] if China lets Wu visit pro-democracy activists in China, Taiwan will acquiesce in approving Chen's visit," the president said.

Chen said that the first option followed the precedent set by China, which has opposed the president's decision to select Wang to act as his envoy to the APEC summit.

The second alternative was based on the principle of equality and reciprocity, he said.

Chen's decision to name Wang as his proxy to the summit won the backing of politicians from across party lines, but Seoul rejected Wang as a result of China's opposition.

South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon has urged the government to send another candidate with a background in economics.

"If lacking a background in economic affairs is a defensible reason to reject Wang's attendance at APEC, why should Taiwan say yes to Chen Yunlin's request?" the president said.

The president said that Chen Yunlin, who was invited by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) to attend a party-to-party forum on business, is also not a person with a background in economics.

According to a Central News Agency report last Thursday, the KMT filed an application with the government for Chen Yunlin and other high-level officials in China's Taiwan Affairs Office to visit Taiwan in December.

Referring to the past conventions, Wu said that negotiations were required to arrange the visits of high-level officials.

Taiwan sent working level officials to China to make arrangements for Koo Chen-fu, former president of the Straits Exchange Foundation, to Shanghai and Beijing in 1998, and China also sent working level officials to Taiwan in 1999, when Taiwan was preparing to welcome Wang Dao-han, the president of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits.

"Koo and Wang were not government officials but civilians. We made these kind of arrangements for civilians [to visit], not to mention such a high-level official in China as Chen Yunlin," Wu said.

Regarding the president's second proposal, Wu also said that he would be more than happy to visit China as long as the visit was in the interests of the Taiwanese people.

A former Japan Maritime Self Defense Force Fleet Air Wing commander, retired Rear Admiral Sumihiko Kawamura, spoke to 'Taipei Times' Staff Reporter Rich Chang on the Chinese navy's abilities - especially its submarine fleet - as well as the potential for military cooperation between the US, Japan and Taiwan

Taipei Times: It is widely believed that China's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has been making substantial progress, particularly with their submarine force. What is your evaluation of PLAN?

Rear Admiral Sumihiko Kawamura: I see PLAN's capability as still being limited or weak in terms of the four major missions of a navy -- strategic deterrence, projection of power, sea control and sea-lane security. Let me analyze those items.

PLAN may have strategic deterrence ability. Their nuclear submarines may be able to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles [ICBMs] at locations close to their shores under their air force and navy's protection, but ICBMs are their only reliable weapons.

Regarding PLAN's ability to project power, its range only extends to the waters around Taiwan. PLAN's submarines have a very limited ability to prevent the US and Japanese navies from projecting their power to the waters around Taiwan.

As for its ability to control sea lanes, it would be impossible for PLAN to control the waters between China and Taiwan if it faced a US and Japanese joint naval force. In contrast, within the so-called first island chain [islands including the Aleutians, Japan, South Korea, Okinawa, Taiwan, the Philippines and Singapore], PLAN has a very limited capability to deny the US and Japan command of the seas.

So if China invaded Taiwan, PLAN would not be able to sustain logistic support from China because it cannot control the waters between Taiwan and China.

Finally, China also has a limited capability to conduct a blockade of sea lanes.

Kawamura: China has about 70 submarines. Most of China's submarines are conventional submarines, which need to come up to surface about every four to seven days. So those submarines are easy to detect any time they surface. In addition, conventional submarines are difficult to operate in the ocean. That means PLAN's submarines have a limited ability to confront US forces in the Pacific Ocean.

TT: Are their more advanced submarines such as the Kilo Class submarines so easy to detect?

Kawamura: It is easy. Kilos are not cutting-edge submarines. In the past, the US and Japan easily tracked Russia's submarines, and in comparison, the Russian submarines were quicker than China's.

If the US and Japan jointly go to war with China, I am afraid China's submarine fleet would be unable to survive for more than one week after a conflict broke out, and it would be a one-sided game

TT: It is widely believed that China is operating undersea surveys in waters south and north of Taiwan to find an effective way to block the US navy in the event of military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Would PLAN succeed?

Kawamura: It would not succeed. The US and Japan would be able to operate against their submarines from the air. While the US has 80 P-3C maritime-patrol aircraft stationed in Japan, Japan also owns over 120 P-3Cs. Our P-3C force would be able to detect and destroy Chinese submarines in waters to the south and north of Taiwan before the US fleet entered waters close to Taiwan. So their scheme would not succeed.

TT: The US has approved the sale of 12 P-3C aircraft, three PAC-3 anti-missile batteries and eight diesel-power submarines to Taiwan, but the arms bill has been stalled in the legislature. Among those items, which should be the priority for Taiwan? Do you agree with some who say that Taiwan's military should put the submarines at the top of the list?

Kawamura: P-3Cs and acquiring better C4ISR [command, communications, coordination, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] are priorities for Taiwan's military.

Currently, what is most important for the country is knowing how to bring about interoperability between Taiwan, Japan and the US' military. A Taiwanese P-3C force with the better 4CISR systems the aircraft has would be used in conjunction with those of the US and Japan, and the connection would largely strengthen US-Japan-Taiwan military cooperation.

Significantly, if the three countries share more 4CISR information, the US and even Japan would have a better chance of coming to aid Taiwan because it would reduce their risk of entering a war against China.

Currently, the US and Japan lack information about the seabed around Taiwan. We need Taiwan to provide information about what is happening under the waters around Taiwan. Without this information, it is more difficult for the US and Japan to operate in the area.

Kawamura: Yes, they did, but it requires too much effort for the US and Japan. If Taiwan establishes a P-3C force, the three countries could rotationally patrol the waters around Taiwan, and it would be terrific if the three countries could conduct comprehensive anti-submarine surveillance around the waters of East Asia.

I would not support Taiwan's purchase of submarines because submarines are too expensive. Also, they are less helpful in promoting the country's military interoperability with the US and Japan.

TT: Would Japan's military aid Taiwan in concert with the US in the case of an attack by China?

Kawamura: I believe that in an emergency, the Japanese government would help the US. I believe that if there were increasing casualties of US personnel as a result of action between the US and China around the waters of Taiwan, Japan's leaders and the public could not ignore that.

So, the Japanese government would change its current policy, and would help the American forces.

The marginalization of Taiwan's economy is upon us, with the opening up of trade with China, and the gradual drain of Taiwan's capital, talent and technology across the Taiwan Strait. Over time, this drain has increased in both volume and speed.

In 2001, the year that the government adopted its "proactive liberalization" policy toward trade with China, notebook computer production peaked in Taiwan. At the time it was No. 1 in the world, accounting for 89 percent of global production, compared with the 4 percent produced in China.

China's hold on production capacity shot up to 82 percent last year, leaving Taiwan trailing with a 16 percent share. This year the last notebook production line closed. The speed with which China has replaced Taiwan in this regard is quite breathtaking.

On Oct. 24, shares of notebook maker Compal fell NT$0.9, closing at NT$29.6. Some reports say that notebook original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are running 6 percent profit margins. Only 6 percent? This is certainly cause for concern, but it is also the necessary outcome of a situation in which Taiwanese businesses have been falling over themselves to get a foothold in China, together with the government's lack of effective management. Given this, can the stock market recover?

The stock market closed that day at 5,717 points, representing a fall of 6.8 percent from the end of last year. This is pretty miserable compared to figures from South Korea, India and Japan, which have shown increases of 30 percent, 29 percent and 14 percent, respectively.

Marginalization is a process in which a small economic entity is absorbed and eventually extinguished by a larger one through integration. It is a slow process which can, at times, include periods of apparent rejuvenation, which offer some hope. In all, however, the smaller entity's life force is in perpetual decline.

Taiwan's economic growth started to slide in the 1990s, with bank reserves recording single-digit expansion. Both phenomena were part and parcel of the marginalization process. In 1996, former president Lee Teng-hui tried to put the brakes on this process to stop the country from going belly-up. The subsequent loosening of his policies and the government's tendency toward proactive liberalization following the transition of power to the Democratic Progressive Party-led (DPP) administration have resurrected the old problems. This has created Taiwan's unenviable and unique situation among international stock markets.

The pro-unification voices in the media claim that the root cause of the decline in the stock market is a lack of confidence, and that the most important thing now is to regain it. But is this really true? In all honesty, a lack of confidence is but a symptom of the problem and not the cause.

Take a situation in which an elderly man with anemia stumbles and breaks his arm. The fact that he stumbled and injured himself is just the result of the fact that he is anemic, and therefore unsteady on his feet.

Following the same principle, the poor fortunes of Taiwan's stock market in recent years and its significant fall on Oct. 17 cannot be put down to a loss of investor confidence or concerns over avian flu. The real reason is that Taiwanese businesses migrated to China, taking our capital and draining the economy of its lifeblood. The reason pro-unification academics and the media are blaming the market's decline on a lack of investor confidence stems from their identification with China. They have whipped up this public discourse in an effort to cover up their desire to realize their dream of unification.

On Oct. 24, an article entitled "Government Taking Last Stand to Restore Investor Confidence" appeared in a local Chinese-language newspaper. The article claimed that Premier Frank Hsieh knows full well that stimulating the economy is key to the cross-strait problem, and has therefore decided to take a more proactive approach and open up channels of communication with higher-level policy makers. But, we are also aware that this technique of creating dissent and division within the ranks is just another way in which the pro-unification factions are conducting their "war without limits." I hope this divide-and-conquer strategy will not be allowed to succeed.

The article called for eight-inch wafer and LCD plants to be set up in China, for the 40 percent ceiling on investment in China to be raised and for other restrictions on investment in China to be removed. If these demands are really met, they will fly in the face of President Chen Shui-bian's policies of preferring no investment in China if it cannot be effectively managed, and of reducing reliance on China.

It will also go to show that businessmen are the ones making government policy, and that the country is being governed by the media. This "last stand" is destined to end in a victory for pro-unification elements and the defeat of Taiwan. It will be a battle for our country. I ask everyone to be on their guard, because we don't want to see Taiwan routed.