20051226

Japanese feel unfriendly to PRC

BACK TO THE FUTURE: Tokyo has polled the public mood toward China since 1978, and the latest result suggests Japanese are growing increasingly pensive

AFP , TOKYO

Japan's opinion of China is at its lowest level in more than 25 years, according to a poll that was published at the weekend that showed less than one in three people felt friendly towards their giant neighbor.

The government poll showed that 32.4 percent of people felt friendly towards Beijing, down 5.2 percentage points from a year earlier.

It was the lowest level since the government started polling on the topic in 1978, the Cabinet Office said in its annual survey released on Saturday.

The poll, conducted in the first half of October and including more than 1,500 respondents, had a record 63.4 percent who said they did not feel close to China, up from 58.2 percent the previous year.

BAD STATE

A record 71.2 percent said ties between Japan and China were not in a good state, up 10.2 percentage points, amid ongoing diplomatic rows.

Relations between China and Japan have been badly strained over Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits to a Tokyo shrine that commemorates Japan's military dead, including convicted war criminals.

China says the pilgrimage shows Tokyo does not fully regret its militarist past.

Japan and China are also bitterly divided over gas reserves in the East China Sea, with Tokyo planning a major increase in patrols in the disputed area.

In the latest friction, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso said last week that China was becoming a "considerable threat" because of its rising military spending and nuclear weapons.

REACTION

The remarks drew an immediate reaction from China, who accused Aso of making irresponsible claims.

Chinese leaders have refused to meet Koizumi, who paid his fifth visit to the Yasukuni shrine in October.

On South Korea, 51.1 percent of respondents said they felt close to Seoul, down 5.6 percentage points, while 50.9 percent said Japan's ties with the country are not in a good condition, up 16.0 points, the poll showed.

South Korea has joined China's criticism of Koizumi's visit to the shrine.

Meanwhile, 73.2 percent of respondents said they felt good about the US, Japan's closest ally, up 1.4 points.

Chinese democracy activist jailed for `organizing' anti-Japan demonstrations

AFP , BEIJING

"He's innocent. They should release him immediately."－Chen Xianying, wife of democracy activist Xu Wanping

China sentenced a longtime democracy activist to 12 years in prison for allegedly organizing protests that were part of a wave of anti-Japanese demonstrations earlier this year, his wife said yesterday.

Xu Wanping, 44, was convicted of "incitement to subvert state power" and sentenced on Friday in a closed-door hearing by a court in Chongqing, Sichuan Province, where he lives, his wife Chen Xianying said.

Chen said she did not find out about the court's decision until later.

"He's innocent. They should release him immediately," Chen said, who denied Xu had organized or participated in any anti-Japanese demonstrations.

Xu was among about eight political dissidents who were known to have been arrested in May, a month after large anti-Japanese demonstrations occurred in several major Chinese cities.

Few ordinary citizens were known to have been arrested.

The detentions of the dissidents reflect China's unease with anti-Japanese sentiment and fear that dissidents critical of the government could take advantage of the protests to influence ordinary people to protest against other issues, including corruption and lack of freedom.

Xu is believed to be the first of the group of dissidents to be sentenced.

During three weekends in April, tens of thousands of demonstrators across several Chinese cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, threw stones, eggs and bottles at the Japanese embassy, shops and restaurants.

Protesters opposed Japan's approval of history textbooks, which China and other Asian countries say gloss over wartime atrocities, as well as Japan's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

Pay more attention to Taiwan: Japanese academic

STAFF WRITER

A prominent Japanese authority on China on Saturday urged his country to pay more attention to Taiwan, citing the strategic importance of the country to maintaining regional security.

Shigeo Hiramatsu, a professor of Kyorin University and a Japanese China expert, published a feature article in the Japanese-language daily Sankei Shimbun urging the Japanese government, media, and all citizens to express more concern over Taiwan.

Hiramatsu pointed out that given Taiwan's position on the lifeline of the Sea of Japan, Japan must not ignore the influential military status Taiwan holds. He went further to warn that if Japan leaves out Taiwan from its military considerations, the safety of the Sea of Japan will no longer be safeguarded and any talk about the safety in East Asia will become meaningless.

The paper gave Hiramatsu's article a headline saying that Taiwan is situated on the strategic front line. In his article, Hiramatsu praised Seiji Maehara, the leader of the Democratic Party of Japan, for his recent bold statement about China's military buildup, which is a real threat to Japan.

Nevertheless, Hiramatsu regretted that Maehara did not mention Taiwan's importance in his statement.

Hiramatsu also pointed out that China has built up its military to strategically target the US, and has made taking Taiwan a tactic goal. China is most likely to attack Taiwan by force after both the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing and the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai. By that time, it will certainly use its nuclear threat to warn the US not to intervene by protecting Taiwan, and to prevent US troops in Japan from making any sudden moves.

The article said that the biggest reason for China to develop long-range nuclear weapons that can reach the US is to force the latter not to interfere in the Taiwan issue.

According to Hiramatsu, China wants to unify with Taiwan primarily because of the nation's strategic position in East Asia. If it can control Taiwan, it can have greater influence on both the South China Sea region and ASEAN.

Candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) chairmanship Yu Shyi-kun yesterday criticized Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Ma Ying-jeou for ordering pan-blue legislators to block the weapons procurement bill, saying Ma's stance only reveals his defeatism and treachery.

Yu made the remarks as a guest speaker at a meeting held by the 908 Taiwan Republic Campaign yesterday morning.

Yu showed up to seek support from independence movement veterans for his DPP chairmanship campaign.

Facing many Taiwan independence advocates, Yu said that he is willing to fully support the movement to establish a Taiwan Republic and added that he admired people who contributed their efforts and money to the independence movement.

"To build a Taiwan Republic is our supreme goal and we can never compromise with anyone for any reason," Yu said, "We will never give it up before we achieve it. I support this aim to the end and will protect the Taiwan Republic with my life."

Yu then focused on Ma, criticizing him for being behind the repeated blocking of the arms purchase bill.

"Ma had said that the weapons bills are nothing more than a buffer for cross-strait peace, which illustrates his stand of treachery and defeatism," Yu said. "The people of Taiwan can never allow such a notion to exist."

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is at a crossroads and Taiwan's freedom hangs in the balance.

The DPP's defeat in the Dec. 3 local elections was widely anticipated, yet the extent of the trouncing still came as a shock. Analysts have cited many reasons for the debacle: former presidential aide Chen Che-nan's misconduct, the Kaohsiung Rapid Transit Corp scandal, the DPP's failure to deliver on promises of reform and the overall lack of discernible achievement over five years. There was also extensive vote-buying by the pan-blue camp's well-oiled "black gold" machine to take into account. Most significant, however, was the intention of the DPP's core supporters to punish the party for its failure to toe a consistent pro-Taiwan line and to implement policies that protect the nation from the ever-growing threat of Chinese annexation.

Some observers have drawn the opposite conclusion: The DPP lost because it was seen as less capable than the opposition parties in dealing with China and was too slow in deregulating cross-strait exchanges. This view is common among pan-blue supporters and foreign observers who do not understand domestic political dynamics. There has in fact been a marked rise in the sense of Taiwanese identity in recent years and a great majority of Taiwanese would prefer to keep their de facto sovereignty and democracy.

How the DPP interprets the motivations of the electorate and how the party adjusts its China policy will no doubt affect the outcome of upcoming elections -- the Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections next year, the elections for the restructured Legislative Yuan in 2007 and the next presidential election in 2008.

Robyn Lim of Nanzan University in Japan recently said that China may be able to annex Taiwan soon after the March 2008 presidential election. This assumes that the DPP will not be able to recover quickly enough to defeat the presumed Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) contender -- Taipei Mayor and party Chairman Ma Ying-jeou.

Commenting on the elections' outcome on Dec. 15, President Chen Shui-bian stated that his administration's insistence on Taiwanese identity, democracy and clean governance would not change. This is a good start.

Chen needs to emphasize further, as he did in an interview with Newsweek in early spring, that no dialogue on the future status of Taiwan may start before China becomes a genuine democracy and before it achieves a standard of living comparable to Taiwan. In other words, Chen needs to clearly enunciate a vision of a democratic and independent future for Taiwan in order to inspire a concerted effort toward that goal.

President Chen needs to make peace with former president Lee Teng-hui, work closely with the Taiwan Solidarity Union and consult with opinion leaders from all walks of life, including lobbyists, academics and experts in economics and national defense who are committed to a democratic and independent nation. Chen needs to unify the different DPP factions and all members of the public who identify with Taiwan, regardless of their ethnic origin, and urge them to work together for an independent and free Taiwan that can peacefully coexist with China.

The government needs to educate pan-blue supporters on the consequences of Taiwan surrendering to China. The history of Chinese rule since 1949 and its calamitous impact on the average person should be widely disseminated. The leaders of the KMT and the People First Party may slip away to the US or elsewhere if Taiwan were ever to fall into the hands of the Chinese Communist Party, but the rank and file will not be so fortunate. Pan-blue supporters should seriously consider whether they really prefer the repression of the CCP to their own way of life. To be part of an expansionist China is ultimately to be on the front line of a potential war against the military alliance of the US, Japan and other democracies in Asia. Why should the Taiwanese people take sides with the forces of Leninism and autocracy?

The DPP government needs to send government officials and academics to the US to explain Taiwan's changed political landscape to US officials, academics, the Congress and the media. The pan-blues are in essence collaborating with Beijing to subvert Taiwan's democracy from within so that they may hand Taiwan over to the People's Liberation Army soon after the 2008 presidential election, which the KMT expects to win with Ma.

US policymakers should be made to ponder the consequences for Japan's security, the future of the US-Japan alliance and the political, economic and strategic interests of the US in East Asia and beyond. Similar representations should be made in Tokyo.

To regain the trust of the electorate and secure Taiwan's survival, the DPP government needs to undertake a drastic reversal in its China policy.

First, the second economic development consultative conference scheduled for next month should be canceled. The first conference resulted in the weakening of the economy, higher unemployment, outflow of capital, technology and skilled manpower to China, a dangerous dependence on China's economy and the creation of a class of business people with vested interests in unification.

Chen should instead convene a smaller symposium of "Taiwan First" economists and government officials to map out strategies promoting technical innovation and the fostering of new knowledge-based industries.

The policy of increasing Chinese tourists should also be canceled. China already has several thousand spies and special operations personnel working inside Taiwan. Opening up to more Chinese tourists will only increase this number. Taiwan's security agencies are already having a hard time identifying and keeping track of these agents. It is foolhardy to bring in more Trojan horses.

To do all of this, Chen will need to appoint a new premier whose "Taiwan First" credentials are impeccable and whose commitment to the nation's democratic future is beyond question. The new premier must have the ability to make Cabinet members work together to develop the economy and bolster the national security.

A premier from the pan-blue camp is out of the question. Ma's recent comments along these lines merely indicate his low opinion of the DPP leadership's intelligence.

To survive as a viable party and ensure Taiwan's continued independence, the DPP must return to its roots, rebuild its core base, and from there expand its support base by taking care of farmers and workers, implementing promised reforms, wiping out corruption and, above all, recommitting the party to the goal of a free and independent Republic of Taiwan through the exercise of the people's inalienable right to self-determination.

Last week, the arms procurement bill was finally put on the legislative agenda after being vetoed 41 times in the Procedure Committee. But on Friday the pan-blue camp halted the legislative session, preventing any discussion of the matter on the floor.

Legislators who oppose the bill should not continue blocking it but allow it to be debated, giving the public a better understanding of the matter. Being on the agenda is different from being passed. It only means that the legislature is able to review the proposal. When it is discussed, the public can attempt to understand both the arms bill's content and scope.

If a consensus cannot be reached after discussion and negotiation, it may still be rejected by the legislature. But in this process, the public will gain a better understanding of Taiwan's defense capacities and needs.

The controversy presently focuses on whether the weapons are being sold for a reasonable price. In fact, the plan is closely connected to the nation's overall defense policy and security strategy. This is not the right time to haggle over prices, because this concerns the nation's defense. The plan grows out of the nation's broad security strategy.

Apart from the debate on the budget, there is also concern over the possible negative impact on Taiwan-US relations if the plan fails. Unfortunately, the core issue -- the nation's strategic and tactical needs -- has been drowned out by the torrent of personal abuse from politicians and the media. As a result, there is an absence of real debate on the issues. This clearly does not help Taiwan's development, and it may prevent the public from becoming better educated about national defense.

The US has for a long time said that it will accept Taiwan's democratic decisions regarding the purchases. But as former deputy assistant secretary of state Randall Schriver pointed out, what the US does not understand is why the legislature will not even put the issue on the agenda for discussion.

If we take a closer look at the plan, its content and items have been amended. Some items have been moved to the regular budget from a special one. The budget has also been reduced significantly. Doesn't even the amended plan deserve legislative consideration?

Several pan-blue-camp leaders claim that it is unnecessary to propose a plan, because the procurement of weapons was vetoed in the referendum held last year on the same day as the presidential vote. It should be remembered, however, that another referendum question was also "vetoed": the establishment of a "peace and stability framework" for cross-strait interaction. According to the pan-blue leaders' logic, the cross-strait talks they promote so actively should also be banned, since the second referendum question also failed to pass.

In which case, the public would be more likely to oppose their trips to China and the ongoing forum between the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the communists.

Instead of sticking to such twisted logic, the two referendum questions should be clarified. Last year's vote should not be seen as the end of the issue.

Some oppose the arms procurement plan because they see it as "spendthrift" purchasing. Even if they do not support it, doesn't it deserve a chance for rational discussion in the Legislative Yuan? The boycott is a result of a political confrontation between the pan-blue and pan-green camps. But rather than emotional accusations, the public should be allowed to thoroughly examine the plan under the framework of national security.