Pentagon warns of military weakness

REDUCTION OF RISK: A classified report says that deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq and other factors raise the specter of a compromised response to new conflict

AP, WASHINGTON
Sunday, Feb 10, 2008, Page 1

A classified Pentagon assessment concludes that long battlefield tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, plus persistent episodes involving terrorists and other threats, have prevented the US military from improving its ability to respond to new crises, The Associated Press has learned.

Despite security gains in Iraq, a "significant" risk remains that the strained US military cannot react quickly and fully to another outbreak elsewhere, the report says.

Last year the Pentagon raised that threat risk from "moderate" to "significant." This year, the report will maintain this "significant" risk level, pointing to the military's continuing struggle against a stubborn insurgency in Iraq and its lead role in the NATO-led war in Afghanistan.

The Pentagon, however, will say that its efforts to increase the size of the military, replace equipment and bolster partnerships overseas will help lower the risk over time, defense officials said on Friday. They spoke on condition of anonymity.

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has completed the risk assessment, which is expected to be delivered to Congress this month. Because he has concluded the risk is significant, his report will also include a letter from Defense Secretary Robert Gates that will outline what the Pentagon is doing to reduce it.

The risk level was raised to "significant" last year by Mullen's predecessor, US Marine General Peter Pace.

This week in Congress, Mullen provided a glimpse into his thinking on the review. Pentagon officials confirmed on Friday that the assessment is finished and acknowledged some of the factors Gates will cite in his letter.

"The risk has basically stayed consistent, stayed steady," Mullen told the House Armed Services Committee. "It is significant."

He said the 15-month tours in Iraq and Afghanistan are too long and must be reduced to 12 months, with longer rest periods at home.

"We continue to build risk with respect to that," he said.

Other major national security problems include threats from countries that have weapons of mass destruction, as well as the need to replace equipment worn out and destroyed during more than six years of war.

On a positive note, Mullen pointed to security gains in Iraq, brought on in part by the increase in US forces ordered there by President George W. Bush last year.

There, "the threat has receded and al-Qaeda ... is on the run," he said. "We've reduced risk there. We've got more stability there as an example."

The annual review grades the military's ability to meet demands of the nation's military strategy, which would include fighting the wars as well as being able to respond to any potential outbreaks in places such as North Korea, Iran, Lebanon and China.

The latest review covers the military's status for last year, but the readiness level has see-sawed during the Iraq War. For example, the risk for 2004 was assessed as "significant," but it improved to "moderate" in 2005 and 2006.

Last year, when Pace increased the risk level, a report from Gates that accompanied the assessment said that the military was working to improve war fighting capabilities, but it "may take several years to reduce risk to acceptable levels."

Gates is expected to inform Congress that while the primary goal is to continue to increase the size of the military, it is also critical to step up efforts to work with other nations, as well as other US agencies, to bolster fragile governments through economic development and other support.

His report will also reflect his drumbeat for the use of more "soft power" to defeat terror, which includes the greater use of civilians in areas such as political development, communications and training.

Pentagon leaders argue that nontraditional conflicts, such as the insurgents and terrorists facing coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, will be the main military challenges for years to come.

Defeating them, the leaders say, will require more than military hardware.

John McCain has Chinese aggression in his sights

AP, WASHINGTON
Sunday, Feb 10, 2008, Page 1

Senator John McCain, the leading contender for the Republican Party's presidential nomination, has written that the US "must take note" of China's military threats and "warlike rhetoric" toward Taiwan.

McCain wrote in the journal Foreign Affairs late last year that while China's rise will be a top challenge for the next president, the two countries are not destined to be adversaries.

"China's newfound power implies responsibilities," McCain said.

McCain said that China should "behave as a responsible economic partner," guarantee the safety of its products and abandon "its go-it-alone approach to world energy supplies."

US lawmakers assert that China has failed to live up to its role as an emerging superpower; they are considering legislation that would punish China for what they contend to be predatory trade practices.

McCain has urged China to explain its military buildup. The US, he said, "must take note" when China "threatens democratic Taiwan with a massive arsenal of missiles and warlike rhetoric."

"When China enjoys close economic and diplomatic relations with pariah states such as Burma, Sudan and Zimbabwe, tension will result," McCain wrote in Foreign Affairs.

Taiwan expat groups ask Bush for help
　

By Charles Snyder
STAFF REPORTER IN WASHINGTON
Sunday, Feb 10, 2008, Page 1

Dozens of Taiwanese-American organizations, spearheaded by the Formosan Association for Public Affairs (FAPA), have publicly urged US President George W. Bush and his administration to support Taiwan's entry into the UN and other international organizations in a half-page ad scheduled to appear in the Washington Post today.

Quoting Bush's pro-democracy proclamation in his State of the Union Address last month in which he pledged to "trust the people" to choose freedom, the 67 organizations urged him to "trust the people of Taiwan to choose a future of `freedom and peace' by supporting Taiwan's upcoming democratic referendum" to enter the UN under the name of "Taiwan."

Noting that the Bush administration has repeatedly voiced opposition to the referendum, newly elected FAPA president Bob Yang (楊英育) said: "We believe that the US' repeated high-volume opposition to the referendum casts doubt upon the US' willingness to stand up for democracy and undermines the US' position as a champion of democracy in East Asia."

Urging Washington to support the planned polls, Yang added: "If, for whatever reason, they are unable to support it, we ask that they at least keep quiet and let Taiwan's democratic process run its course."

Because of Chinese pressure, according to the ad, "Taiwan has become an international orphan," but Taiwanese "have a dream that someday soon their free and democratic country will be accepted as [a] full an equal member of the international community."

"As leaders of the Taiwanese-American organizations, we ask the United States administration and Congress to stand up for the principles of human rights and self-determination" by supporting full Taiwan membership in the UN, WHO and other bodies.

"There can be no double standard when it comes to supporting democracy," the ad states.

Other groups supporting the ad include the Taiwanese Association of America and its chapters, the World Taiwanese Congress, World United Formosans for Independence, the UN for Taiwan Alliance, the North American Taiwanese Medical Association and its chapters, the Taiwanese Hakka Association of the World, the Friends of Taiwan and the North American Taiwanese Women's Association.

The ad appears in the Sunday "Outlook" section, which FAPA called "the must-read section for political pundits and for readers interested in foreign policy."

"The ad expresses the sentiment of a vast roster of Taiwanese American organizations that strongly support the democratic referendum plans," FAPA said.

"Deeply disturbed by the fact that over the last few months of 2007, several high officials of the Bush administration made statements in which they express opposition to Taiwan's planned referendum, calling it 'provocative' and `a mistake,' the organizations felt that [the] time for action is now," it said.