Kosovo declaration raises issue of Taiwan's future
　

By Jenny W. Hsu
STAFF REPORTER
Saturday, Feb 23, 2008, Page 4

Kosovo's recent declaration of independence sparked mixed reactions from the international community as well as within Taiwan. While some academics believe the Kosovo case can pave the way for Taiwan to become a normal country, some say Taiwan should not expect to find an ally in Pristina.

Soochow University political science professor Wu Chih-chung (吳志中) said Kosovo may set a precedent as a successful case of becoming a full-fledged country after breaking away from Serbia.

International politics is largely based on precedents, he said, and Taiwan could certainly take advantage of Kosovo's recent achievement as a justification for its own full statehood.

BUMPY ROAD AHEAD

He said Kosovo had a bumpy road ahead before it will obtain a legitimate international standing because Russia, which sits on the UN's Permanent Security Council, has vowed to block Kosovo from joining the body.

"It is obvious that Taiwan is better equipped to declare independence than Kosovo. But we are being stifled by the international community because no superpower at this point in time is willing to risk entering into a conflict with Beijing over Taiwan," he said.

Without the buttress from major players such as Japan, the US and the EU, it would be difficult for Taiwan to rally support from at least 96 UN member-states, he said.

On the other side of the pendulum, professor of international politics Hu Tzu-ching (胡祖慶) of Tunghai University said Kosovo's victory, or apparent victory, has virtually no impact on Taiwan's struggle for recognition as the US is not about to give the nod to Taiwan statehood any time soon.

"In the case of Kosovo, it is obvious that the rest of the world still follows in the US' footsteps. Most of the countries that have recognized Kosovo did so after the Washington gave its approval," he said.

On Tuesday, two days after Pristina declared independence, Minister of Foreign Affairs James Huang (黃志芳) announced recognition of Kosovo and expressed the nation's wish to forge diplomatic ties with "any countries that uphold the universal principles of freedom and democracy."

When asked about the timing of Taiwan's announcement, Huang, without hesitation, said: "We were waiting for the US to recognize Kosovo first."

Thomas Hung (洪茂雄), board director of the European Union Study Association in Taiwan, said that Kosovo could be a source of inspiration for Taiwan and that the government should support it financially.

"The unity of the Kosovar people in the struggle for democracy is worthy of emulation by the Taiwanese people," he said.

But the problem with offering money or other forms of assistance to Kosovo, Hu said, is that Kosovo would have no choice but to reject Taiwan's gesture under pressure from the international community.

Hu recalled that in 1998, during the administration of former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), Taiwan was not allowed to donate US$300 million to Kosovo because it was barred from the donor conference.

OUTSIDE PRESSURE

Even if Kosovo wanted to take the money, he said, it is highly doubtful that the US, the EU and China would permit Pristina to accept the funds.

"After all, Kosovo's survival will be heavily dependent on its relations with the members of the EU," he said. "Moreover, Kosovo will need the UN peacekeeping mission to quell any violent conflicts that might erupt in the country."

Hu even went on to question the prudence of Taiwan's recognition of Kosovo, saying such a move could incite further uneasiness in the Taiwan Strait.

Wu, however, shares Hung's views, but with the underlying caveat that Taiwan must be guaranteed a certain "political reciprocation" from Pristina.

"If Kosovo takes the money and becomes a UN member, the least it should do is to abstain from voting on any Taiwan-related issues, if it can't support them. That should be the minimum expectation if Kosovo were to accept Taiwan's money," he said.