Listen to the voice

US admiral confirms arms sales freeze
　

WEAPONS SAGA: Timothy Keating said US forces were already a powerful deterrent in East Asia and Beijing shouldn’t ‘bother’ challenging them as it would surely lose
　

By Charles Snyder
STAFF REPORTER, WASHINGTON
Friday, Jul 18, 2008, Page 1

The US’ “preeminence” in East Asia and its confidence that it could defeat any hostile Chinese military maneuver against Taiwan make it less urgent for Washington to approve a batch of arms sales to Taiwan that the administration has frozen, the commander of the US forces in the Pacific region said in Washington on Wednesday.

Admiral Timothy Keating confirmed the decision of the administration of US President George W. Bush to freeze the processing of some US$12 billion in arms sales to Taiwan — at least temporarily.

But amid indications that his Pacific command disagrees with the administration on the freeze, Keating’s defense was heavily hedged as he answered questions at a presentation at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank.

Earlier reports stated that the items involved in the freeze include submarines, anti-missile systems and helicopters, as well as advanced F-16 fighter jets.

“It is administration policy,” the admiral said in answer to a question from a Taiwanese reporter.

Destabilize

He justified the policy by saying: “We want to do nothing to destabilize the straits [sic].”

“The folks who make these decisions have reconciled Taiwan’s current military posture and China’s current military posture and strategy,” he said, referring to the State Department, White House and National Security Council (NSC).

“That indicates there is no pressing, compelling need for, at this moment, arms sales to Taiwan of the systems that we are talking about,” he said.

Keating was not asked whether the new policy violates the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, in which the US is committed to supply Taiwan with defensive weapons on the basis of need rather than political considerations, as well as former US president Ronald Reagan’s six assurances, which pledged the continuation of such weapons sales.

News reports have said the freeze, which began late last year, was a bid to placate China as the US needed Beijing’s cooperation on a series of global issues, as well as concerns expressed by Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) officials that the timing of any sales announcement could affect warming relations with China under the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).

Hamper

Whether the freeze will in years ahead hamper Taiwan’s ability to defend itself against an increasingly strong and modern Chinese military machine as Taiwan’s military might wanes is a “consideration” but not a “concern,” Keating said, conceding that the military balance in the Strait could widen in China’s favor in years to come.

In discussing the situation with top Pentagon officials, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and NSC officials, Keating said he told them he was not “overly concerned,” but that the cross-strait situation “is something we regard carefully.”

“We’re doing everything in our power to preclude occurrence, that is to say, the outbreak of hostilities across the Strait,” Keating said. “And I’m more comfortable today than I was 15 months ago that my belief is well-founded, that it’s very ... unlikely that there will be conflict across the Strait.”

But Keating added that “Taiwan’s stuff is getting older, China’s stuff is good and getting newer. There is an imbalance.”

“I think that our country’s policy to do everything we can to defuse tension in the Strait has borne fruit and is much more likely to be unchallenged in the year to mid, and even to long term,” he said.

Keating asserted that the US was “committed to the defense of Taiwan,” adding that the US’ position as a “preeminent force” in the Pacific meant that it would be “folly” for China or another country to believe it could win a war against the US.

On the basis of his repeated conversations with Chinese military leaders since he took over as US commander in the Pacific last year, Keating said he felt the situation in the Taiwan Strait was “significantly more stable” than when he took over.

“The tensions have been palpably decreased in the Strait,” especially since Ma’s election, he said.

“We’re trying to instill a very clear sense of military preeminence, so as to be a powerful deterrence against China’s kinetic military undertaking against Taiwan ... I want them [China] to know they’re going to lose ... so don’t bother,” he said.

In Taipei, Presidential Office Spokesman Wang Yu-chi (王郁琦) yesterday said the legislature’s passage of relevant budgets demonstrated Taiwan’s committment to strengthening its self-defense capability. The office expressed the hope that the US arms procurement could proceed as originally scheduled, he said.

ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY STAFF WRITER

Listen to the voice

Arms freeze has consequences: Schriver
　

By Richard Hazeldine
STAFF REPORTER
　

Friday, Jul 18, 2008, Page 3

The US government’s freeze on arms sales to Taiwan will have a number of consequences for both parties, former US deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs Randall Schriver said yesterday.

Speaking to a gathering of the Taipei Foreign Correspondents Club in Taipei, Schriver said that any halt in weapons procurement was likely to have an exponential effect on Taiwan’s ability to defend itself.

Arms sales “are not something you can turn on or off like a spigot,” he said.

A prolonged arms freeze would also affect the ability of President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) government to negotiate with China on Ma’s key election platforms, such as increasing Taiwan’s international space and the signing of a cross-strait peace accord, he said.

The US, meanwhile, will have to deal with credibility issues if it refuses to follow through after offering and approving the sales of the systems.

Mark Stokes, Schriver’s colleague at the Project 2049 Institute think tank and a former country director for China and Taiwan in the Office of the US Secretary of Defense, also present at the talk, echoed Schriver’s remarks.

He said that the credibility of those in the US establishment that for years had accused Taiwan of not taking its own defense seriously was now being called into question, as the freeze had brought about a “reversal of roles.”

Stokes also said that Wednesday’s military helicopter crash in Taoyuan County had highlighted the importance of continually upgrading military equipment.

Asked whether the freeze could possibly extend into the term of the next US president, Schriver said the camps of both Republican candidate John McCain and Democratic nominee Barack Obama had made it clear to the Bush administration that they did not want to inherit such a situation.

He added that the best solution would be for the present US government to unblock the sales. A failure to do so would prove very costly for any new administration in terms of its relations with Beijing, as the last decade has seen China’s influence in the US capital increase tremendously, Schriver said.

He said that the combination of “highly skilled, articulate Chinese diplomats,” US corporations with interests in China, lobbying firms employed by Beijing and old China friends, such as former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, made it difficult for the US government to pursue policies deemed favorable to Taiwan.

Commenting on the state of relations between Taipei and Washington, Schriver said that the nadir reached during former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) term was not solely down to Chen, as actors in Washington had overestimated their understanding of Taiwan and contributed to the problems.

The cost of rebuilding ties with Taiwan would also be higher now that China has such a powerful presence, he added.

He said that although the Ma government had made a big effort to improve the cross-strait situation, what it was doing to strengthen ties with the US and Japan was still unclear.

Listen to the voice

DPP: Chinese media play name games
　

TAIPEI, CHINA: The DPP caucus yesterday accused media in China — CCTV and Xinhua — of downgrading Taiwan’s status in their reports on the nation’s Olympic preparations
　

By Ko Shu-ling
STAFF REPORTER, WITH CNA
Friday, Jul 18, 2008, Page 4
　

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) caucus yesterday accused Chinese media of downgrading Taiwan’s status by referring to the Taiwan Olympic team as Zhongguo Taibei (中國台北) — which they said means “Taipei, China” and implies that Taiwan is part of China.

DPP Cultural and Publicity Department Director Cheng Wen-tsan (鄭文燦) told a press conference that Chinese Central Television (CCTV) and Xinhua news agency had referred to Taiwan’s athletic team as Zhongguo Taibei when reporting that it had selected its representative team for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games.

Under a protocol signed with the International Olympic Committee (IOC), Taiwan’s Olympic team should be called “Chinese Taipei” or Zhonghua Taibei (中華台北), rather than Zhongguo Taibei or “Taipei, China,” Cheng said, adding that the Chinese media were up to their old tricks and ratcheting up the pressure on Taiwan in the run-up to the Olympics.

DPP Deputy Secretary-General Chen Chi-mai (陳其邁) called for the KMT administration to lodge a serious protest with the Beijing authorities through proper channels to prevent a downgrading of Taiwan’s status during the Olympics.

Yang Yi (楊毅), spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said last week that “Chinese Taipei” could be translated as both Zhongguo Taibei as well as the originally agreed-upon Zhonghua Taibei.

In response, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Taiwan will never accept translating the name of its sports teams as Zhongguo Taibei.

Meanwhile, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) yesterday offered its response to Beijing’s attempt to change the Chinese-language version of Taiwan’s official Olympic title.

Deputy MAC Chairman Liu Teh-hsun (劉德勳) said the Chinese Taipei Olympic Committee has made clear its stance that the official title of Chinese Taipei should be Zhonghua Taibei, and not Zhongguo Taibei in Chinese as stipulated in a 1981 agreement.

The agreement specified that Taiwan would be referred to as Zhonghua Taibei in Chinese characters in any of the Games publications or public information, including brochures, invitation letters, athletic badges and media broadcasts.

The Chinese Taipei Olympic Committee and the International Olympic Committee also reached a similar consensus in 1989, Liu said.

“It is important that both sides respect the consensus, regardless of where the games are held,” Liu said. “The host country should also abide by the regulations set by the International Olympic Committee and request all media reports about the Chinese Taipei Olympic team correspond to such a spirit.”

When asked whether the council would lodge a protest, Liu reiterated that both sides should “understand” and “respect” the consensus and “abide by the Olympic regulations and spirit.”

He emphasized that the Chinese Taipei Olympic Committee would continue to “fully express its stern position based on the spirit.” The council will also “continue to observe the situation” and he hoped the host country will “act in line with the Olympic spirit.”

The government has set up an emergency response mechanism to handle any situation in case China makes a fuss of the issue, Liu said yesterday. However, he offered few details of the inter-ministerial body, arguing that he was not a member.

As for its composition, Liu said it included those government agencies “whose businesses are related to the Games.”

Despite the name change by the Chinese media, the government has decided to allow Chinese correspondents to be stationed in Taiwan. Liu declined to comment on whether the government’s move signified clemency toward the Chinese media’s reports and refused to predict whether they would produce fairer reports in the future.

Listen to the voice

Rare, wise words from Annette Lu

Friday, Jul 18, 2008, Page 8

When former vice president Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) speaks out she doesn’t always get things right, but she hit the nail on the head on Tuesday when she accused the new government of having “no global outlook” and only “having eyes for China.”

Look at the two months since the Ma administration took office and the evidence is overwhelming.

First, we had the talk about opening the real estate market to Chinese investment and the accompanying promises of a property boom, followed by invitations to Chinese investors interested in bankrolling the government’s “i-Taiwan 12 infrastructure projects.” Then we had the hastily negotiated deal on cross-strait flights and the anticipation of Chinese tourists arriving with wads of cash to spend. Last week, the government announced it would allow semiconductor firms to build 12-inch wafer fabs in China. Then, on Tuesday, news emerged that the 40 percent cap on China-bound investment would be scrapped.

All this has occurred against a background of local government officials falling over themselves to cross the Taiwan Strait in search of “economic benefits.”

Meanwhile, relations with Japan have hit a low following the Diaoyutais spat and the US, Taiwan’s best friend and most important security guarantor, is beginning to look increasingly blase on the subject of arms sales.

Of course, the new government has been in power for less than 60 days and it may need more time to find its feet, but the early signs are not encouraging. The trail it has blazed so far is leading in an ominous direction.

It is irrelevant whether, as has been reported, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Vice Chairman John Kuan (關中) actually said the KMT needs to roll back all the de-Sinification efforts the Democratic Progressive Party government made during its eight years in power, as the new government’s actions have already demonstrated that this is what it is trying to do.

The KMT government has fully embraced its cross-strait rival and former enemy without a hint of inhibition, yet like a meeting between long-lost friends where one side is still not quite sure, Beijing has allowed Taiwan to fawn, but with a measure of apprehension on its part.

This is understandable, as China’s goal is to bring Taiwan to heel. Beijing’s strategy is to throw the Taiwanese enough bones to keep them interested, but not enough to help them prosper, as this would only prolong the completion of its “sacred mission” of unification. China is only interested in bleeding Taiwan dry before eventually forcing it to give in to its demands. This is why the promised windfall and economic benefits that are supposed to accompany increased ties with China will never materialize.

President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) may have promised no independence, no unification and no use of force as his cross-strait platform, but, as many now acknowledge, he does not wield enough power within the ranks of his own party.

The KMT’s pro-China old guard — reinstated to power during the reign of Lien Chan (連戰), Ma’s predecessor as KMT chairman — is in control and working behind the scenes, taking advantage of the secretive party-to-party communication channel that Ma failed to close, to bring Taiwan and China closer at the expense of ties to the rest of the world.

Lu has noticed this and has spoken out. How much more will it take before others start to do the same?

Listen to the voice

Vigilance needed on Ma and unification
　

By Chai Trong-Rong 蔡同榮
Friday, Jul 18, 2008, Page 8

I was the first chairman of the World United Formosans for Independence (WUFI, 台灣獨立建國聯盟). Eighteen years ago, when I returned to Taiwan from the US, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) chairman at that time, Huang Hsin-chieh (黃信介) told me that Taiwanese independence was something that had to be achieved but not something that we could talk about loudly.

A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then, but now President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has said that unification is something that must be carried out but that cannot be talked about loudly.

On July 12 in an interview with Germany’s Suddeutsche Zeitung newspaper, Ma said that Taiwan is not interested in obtaining formal independence from China, but will not take part in unification talks with Beijing.

Ma has pledged to keep to his policy of maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait.

Judging from what he is saying, Ma is not pursuing unification with China. Looking at his actions, however, it is easy to see that he is actively promoting it.

PRESSURE

In terms of Taiwan’s sovereignty, Ma has backed down in the face of pressure from China on numerous occasions, including on the so-called “1992 consensus” that there is “one China, with each side having its own interpretation.”

Because Ma states that “one China” refers to the Republic of China, it will be very difficult for his claims to be internationally accepted, and since the “one China with each side having its own interpretation” is not going down well, Ma has in effect been forced to accept China’s “one China” principle.

In addition, Minister of Foreign Affairs Francisco Ou (歐鴻鍊) has said that in the future, Taiwan will use the name “Chinese Taipei” when applying for membership at international organizations such as the WHO.

These moves are aimed at pushing Taiwan into unification with the People’s Republic of China.

THREATS

Apart from all of these threats, since taking office Ma has been insisting on the opening of direct chartered cross-strait flights while showing precious little regard for national security.

Waiving the restrictions on Taiwanese businesses establishing 12-inch wafer plants in China is tantamount to undermining the foundations of Taiwan’s largest and most important industry.

Ma has also greatly relaxed restrictions on China-bound capital investments and encouraged Taiwanese businesses to increase their investments in China.

BLUNDERS

The way in which Ma has been leaning toward China since coming into office has worried both the US and Japan. Talk of permanently canceling sales of US military equipment to Taiwan, and Premier Liu Chao-shiuan’s (劉兆玄) comments about not ruling out going to war with Japan over the Diaoyutai islands are serious diplomatic blunders that have put Taiwan in a dangerous situation internationally.

Ma is apt at saying one thing and doing another. The Taiwanese public should not fall for his tricks and they should pay close attention to what he says and does.

We must stay united and carefully monitor what is going on within Ma’s government. We must protest against anything that is not beneficial to Taiwan.

We cannot let Ma get away with his attempts to achieve unification.

Chai Trong-rong is a DPP legislator.
TRANSLATED BY DREW CAMERON