Australia fires rage on, 135 killed
　

RUDD’S TERRIBLE INFERNO: At least 750 homes were destroyed on Saturday alone, with about 2,200km² of land burned. The town of Maryville no longer exists

AP, WHITTLESEA, AUSTRALIA
Tuesday, Feb 10, 2009, Page 1
　

Suspicions that some of Australia’s worst wildfires ever were deliberately set led police to declare crime scenes in incinerated towns yesterday and a clearly emotional prime minister likened the alleged arson to mass murder. The death toll stood at 135.

The scale of the carnage, growing daily, has shocked a nation that endures deadly firestorms every few years. There were no quick answers, but officials said panic and the freight-train speed of the firefront probably accounted for the unusually high toll.

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, visibly upset during a TV interview, reflected the country’s disgust at the idea that arsonists may have set some of the 400 fires that devastated Victoria state, or helped them jump containment lines.

“What do you say about anyone like that?” Rudd said. “There’s no words to describe it, other than it’s mass murder.”

Attorney General Robert McClelland said that people found to have deliberately set fires could face murder charges. Murder can carry a life sentence.

More than one dozen fires still burned uncontrollably across the state, though conditions were much cooler than on Saturday, which saw record-high heat and winds as fast as 100kph.

At least 750 homes were destroyed on Saturday, the Victoria Country Fire Service said. About 2,200km² of land was burned out.

Officials said both the tolls of human life and property would almost certainly rise as they reached deeper into the disaster zone, and forecasters said temperatures would rise again later in the week, posing a risk of further flare-ups.

In a sign of the nationwide impact of the tragedy, parliament suspended its normal sessions yesterday to hear condolence speeches by legislators. The voices of many quavered with emotion. Some called it Australia’s worst peacetime disaster.

More than 4,000 people registered themselves with the Australian Red Cross, which posted lists of names at some 20 emergency relief centers, the agency said. At one such center in Wittlesea, 12km from Kinglake, survivors scoured the lists looking for missing relatives.

Victoria Police Commissioner Christine Nixon said investigators had strong suspicions that at least one of the deadly blazes — known as the Churchill fire after a ruined town — was deliberately set.

Nixon said the probe would be long and complex, and cautioned against jumping to conclusions.

Police sealed off Maryville, a town destroyed by another fire, with checkpoints, telling residents who fled and news crews they could not enter because there were still bodies in the streets.

Armed police moved through the shattered landscape taking notes, pool news photographs showed.

Evidence of heart-wrenching loss abounded. From the air, the landscape was blackened as far as the eye could see. Entire forests were reduced to leafless, charred trunks, farmland to ashes.

Factory workers protest firings
　

ILLEGAL MOVES? : The demonstrators yesterday accused two companies of flouting labor laws governing layoffs. The Council of Labor Affairs said it would investigate
　

By Shelley Huang and Shih Hsiu-chuan
STAFF REPORTERS
Tuesday, Feb 10, 2009, Page 2
　

Dozens of laid-off workers from Nitto Technology Co and Wintex Corp, along with labor association representatives, protested outside the Executive Yuan and the Council of Labor Affairs (CLA) yesterday, accusing the companies of illegal labor practices and urging government officials to help the workers.

The protestors said that Nitto had violated the law by forcing workers to sign unfair unpaid leave agreements and canceling shifts in order to lower employees’ average salaries and severance pay.

The company has taken advantage of a loophole in the Mass Labor Layoff Protection Law (大量解雇勞工保護法), which penalizes firms that lay off more than 20 workers at a time, they said. The company split the layoffs in three, making no more than 20 workers a day redundant last Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday to avoid penalties, the workers said.

The workers held up banners and signs that said “Nitto exploits workers” and “Japanese businesses throw Taiwanese workers out of jobs,” while shouting “black-hearted business” and other phrases.

“[Nitto] told us [we had to leave] three days before the Lunar New Year started, and that we would get no year-end bonuses. All of this, we accepted. But we were on unpaid leave almost every day in January,” said a former employee surnamed Fang (方), who was in charge of inspection and packaging.

“The [council] has only said it would send a letter to the company to emphasize the regulations. Basically they are on the employer’s side,” Fang said.

Nitto’s Web site says the Japanese firm has two factories in Tainan County processing liquid-crystal-display panels.

Its workers said that the global financial crisis had set off a chain reaction, causing losses at the company, which supplies major brands such as Chi Mei Corp.

Wintex employees were protesting the sacking of about 600 workers in Taoyuan, Taichung and Kaohsiung in December.

Wu Liang-chi (吳良企) demanded the government investigate Windex’ claim that its declining business left it no alternative but to lay workers off.

“If the company has experienced a decrease in orders as it said, why did it purchase large-sized industrial machines every month and why did it expand its investments in China and India? Why did it not lower an executive’s salary, which would be enough to cover the cost of hiring 25 workers?” Wu said.

“The management of the company hasn’t been able to give a clear account of why we were laid off, while it asked other workers to work a night shift because of a continuous flow of orders from HTC Corp, Nokia and iPod.”

Executive officer Liu Shiao-wen (劉曉文) received the petition from protestors on behalf of the Executive Yuan with a promise to have the appropriate departments take care of the issue.

Council statistics released last month showed that about 200,000 people were on unpaid leave — a majority of them in the manufacturing industry. The average number of days of unpaid leave taken by workers is four days a month.

More than half of the workers on unpaid leave were from large companies with more than 500 employees.

“The Council of Labor Affairs should have an explanation for the unpaid leave situation, and whether [the company] violated the law on mass layoffs,” said Huang Yu-te (黃育德), secretary-general of the Tainan County Confederation of Trade Unions.

“We hope the council can offer a reasonable explanation so that all other workers’ rights are protected,” he said.

Department of Working Conditions section chief Huang Wei-shen (黃維琛) said the council would investigate the complaints and would penalize the company if it violated labor laws.

DPP denies claim ‘A-bians’ still in control
　

HIJACKED? : A former DPP official told the ‘China Times’ that supporters of the former president still held sway over the party and it would stay this way until they leave
　

By Rich Chang
STAFF REPORTER
Tuesday, Feb 10, 2009, Page 3

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) defended itself yesterday after a former DPP official said DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) was being influenced by supporters of former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) within the party and that the party would not move forward until those people left.

“DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen has been kidnapped by a number of ‘A-bians’ [the former president’s nickname]. The DPP will not be able revive its spirit if those people do not leave the party,” Chen Fang-ming (陳芳明), former director of the party’s culture and information department, told the Chinese-language China Times on Sunday.

YOUNG LEADERS

Chen Fang-ming is chairman of the Graduate Institute of Taiwanese Literature at National Chengchi University.

He said the party should cleanse itself by selecting young and idealistic people to stand in this year’s city mayor and county commissioner elections and allow younger people to lead.

Chen said the alleged corruption and money-laundering scandals involving Chen Shui-bian have seriously jeopardized the party, but that he did not see the party reforming itself.

Chen Fang-ming asked: “Did the party really respond to the A-bian crisis or offer any measures to reform itself?”

Chen Fang-ming said Tsai Ing-wen was an ideal candidate, but that she could not sustain the party by herself.

“Tsai does not have enough power to control the party, but a number of ‘A-bians’ have tried to control her,” Chen said.

DIVERSE

Approached for comment, Tsai said people have different opinions about the DPP, adding that the party was diverse and that she would not be controlled by one voice.

DPP caucus whip Ker Chien-ming (柯建銘) said Chen Fang-ming’s remarks were biased.

Chen Fang-ming left DPP headquarters long ago and he did not really understand the way the party worked now, Ker said.

DPP Legislator Yu Jan-daw (余政道) said he agreed with Chen Fang-ming’s remarks, but he was confused about who the “A-bians” in the party were.

Yu said people had supported the party because it had a reputation of opposing corruption and the party must recover that reputation.

“What or who are these ‘A-bians?’” former vice president Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) asked when approached for comment.

Top US military official slams N Korea
　

PREPARED: General Walter Sharp said US and South Korean forces had contingency plans for any scenario in the North, including civil war and ‘loose nuclear weapons’

AFP, SEOUL
Tuesday, Feb 10, 2009, Page 5

“We are ready to work with North Korea. North Korea, too, must realize the South is the only country in the entire world that is sincerely concerned for its future and willing to help it.”— Lee Myung-bak, South Korean president

The US military chief in South Korea told North Korea yesterday to stop provocations and “act like a responsible country,” amid reports Pyongyang is preparing a long-range missile test.

US and South Korean forces are prepared for any contingency, General Walter Sharp said in reference to reports of a possible launch.

“Many, many countries around the world are watching North Korea right now to see if it will act responsibly or not,” Sharp told a press conference. “We call on North Korea to stop provocations and act like a responsible country.”

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said earlier that his government’s policy would not change despite increasingly strong threats from North Korea.

“I am very aware there are people who are concerned about the recent series of North Korean threats, but you do not need to worry too much,” the president said in his regular radio address.

Pyongyang last month said it would scrap peace accords with the South, including a 1991 pact in which it recognized their Yellow Sea border as an interim frontier.

The announcement fueled fears of clashes in the area, which was the scene of bloody naval battles in 1999 and 2002.

The North’s official media has warned of possible conflict with the South.

US academic Selig Harrison said last week that hawks had come to dominate defense policy in Pyongyang since leader Kim Jong-il’s reported stroke last August.

Sharp said US and South Korean forces had contingency plans for any instability in the North “from the entire range of humanitarian disaster, to major civil war and potential loose nuclear weapons.”

He gave no details.

The general, who commands 28,500 US troops in the country, said the North’s short-range missiles and artillery deployed along the border “are a great concern for us.”

Sharp said radar systems could rapidly pinpoint such installations for destruction if war broke out, but there “would still would be destruction in Seoul.”

Lee said his government was ready for dialogue but would not rush into negotiations.

“I believe it is better to start off with a little difficulty, but ensure things are set right to reach a positive outcome, instead of trying to figure out what North Korea wants while saying all is well that ends well,” he said.

“We are ready to work with North Korea. North Korea, too, must realize the South is the only country in the entire world that is sincerely concerned for its future and willing to help it,” Lee said.

Inter-Korean relations have worsened since Lee, a conservative, took office last February.

Lee rolled back his liberal predecessors’ decade-long policy of engagement with Pyongyang and said major economic assistance would depend on the North’s willingness to scrap its nuclear weapons program.

He also vowed to review summit deals signed in 2000 and 2007 with the North.

The policy has enraged the North, which has suspended dialogue and imposed tight border controls.

On Sunday, it said Lee’s choice of a hardliner as unification minister would cause relations to collapse.

The criticism came on the eve of a parliamentary confirmation hearing yesterday for Hyun In-taek, an architect of Lee’s tougher policy toward Pyongyang.

Asia: Target of PRC’s carrier plan

By James Holmes
Tuesday, Feb 10, 2009, Page 8

LATE IN DECEMBER, Huang Xueping (黃雪平), a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, confirmed that Beijing was seriously considering building aircraft carriers. For many in the West, the prospect of Chinese carriers conjures up images of World War II, with its titanic battles between Japanese and US carrier task forces.

Accordingly, naval analysts at the US Naval War College and elsewhere are atwitter over what Huang’s remarks may signify. Rumors have the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) doing anything from refitting the decrepit Soviet carrier Varyag to building 84,000-tonne leviathans comparable to the US Navy’s Nimitz-class flattops.

The buzz is understandable. If it lost its carriers in combat against China, the US could lose its dominant position in Asia in an afternoon while discrediting itself as a world power. It is doubtful, however, that the PLA relishes a head-on engagement with the US Pacific Fleet. Nor is a Taiwan contingency uppermost in the minds of Chinese carrier advocates.

There are pragmatic reasons for this. The PLAN understands that surface vessels are increasingly vulnerable to “asymmetric” attack by submarines, stealthy missile boats, or even land-based systems like the anti-ship ballistic missiles Chinese weapons engineers are reportedly developing. Inexpensive weapons pack a punch, even against US carriers.

That’s the insight that has driven Chinese naval thinking since the 1995 to 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, when the administration of then US president Bill Clinton dispatched two carrier battle groups to Taiwan’s vicinity as a deterrent. Unable to track or even detect the US task forces, Beijing in effect vowed “never again” to suffer such a travesty.

PLA sea-power thinkers have studied carrier operations assiduously since then. The PLAN has poured enormous effort into devising systems and tactics able to hold off US naval forces in a future showdown. As a result, there’s a real chance that Washington would think twice before risking these high-value assets in the Strait.

Having gained confidence in their ability to menace US aircraft carriers, PLAN strategists understand that Chinese carriers would be likewise vulnerable in a fleet engagement. After all, the US Pacific Fleet is no slouch at sinking surface warships. Rather than expose its flattops to a US counterattack, Beijing likely has other purposes in mind for them.

First, as Huang said: “China has a long coastline and the sacred duty of China’s armed forces is to safeguard the country’s marine safety and sovereignty over coastal areas and territorial seas.” While this sounds harmless enough, Beijing asserts jurisdiction over virtually the entire South China Sea.

Putting steel behind maritime territorial claims disputed by fellow Asian states only makes sense from China’s standpoint. Aircraft carriers sallying from, say, the PLAN’s new base on Hainan would put an exclamation point on Beijing’s claims vis a vis rival claimants like Vietnam and the Philippines.

Second, economic logic is refocusing Beijing’s strategic gaze on waters even farther afield than Southeast Asia. China’s current leadership has staked its legitimacy on improving the nation’s standard of living — and that means securing reliable seaborne shipments of oil, gas and other raw materials.

A carrier fleet would give Beijing some control over the sea lanes that crisscross the Indian Ocean, bringing vital resources to Chinese users.

And third, aircraft carriers are a talisman. Reversing China’s “century of humiliation” at the hands of Western sea powers is a top priority for Beijing, which has noticed it’s the only permanent member of the UN Security Council without carriers in its naval inventory. India has one, with plans for more. Even the Royal Thai Navy sports one.

China believes it can rebrand itself as a great seafaring nation by procuring carriers.

The upshot: Beijing likely intends its flattops not for a cataclysmic sea fight against the US Navy, but to coerce or deter lesser Asian powers, safeguard merchant shipping in vital sea areas and uphold maritime claims others find objectionable.

This may come as cold comfort for China’s neighbors, but it also implies that Nimitz-like vessels aren’t in China’s immediate future. It doesn’t need them to prosecute more modest missions. For now, the PLAN likely will content itself experimenting with humbler vessels like the “helicopter destroyers” operated by Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force.

Such an interim solution would meet Beijing’s needs for the time being while allowing Chinese engineers time to master difficult technologies like steam catapults that are essential to big-deck carrier operations. That would keep Beijing’s options open should it deem more ambitious vessels necessary in the future.

That seems like a reasonable shipbuilding strategy.

James Holmes is an associate professor at the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. 

Injustice stirs concern here, abroad

By Cao Changqing 曹長青
Tuesday, Feb 10, 2009, Page 8

FORMAL TRIAL PROCEEDINGS against former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) commenced shortly before the Lunar New Year. The case has attracted attention from abroad because the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) government of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) is seen to be using it as a means to exact retribution on its political opponents. The classic signs of a political vendetta — media leaks, trial by publicity, presumption of guilt and a failure to observe procedural justice — are plain for all to see.

However, anyone who stands up and says anything about Chen’s judicial rights is immediately accused by the pro-KMT pan-blue media of trying to shield the corrupt. Even the judge who ruled that it was not necessary to keep Chen in detention has been called a stooge of the former president. Any upstanding member of the legal profession who so much as questions the justice of the case is immediately labeled pan-green, or even accused of getting something from Chen in return. The media’s one-sided treatment of the case has imposed on Taiwan an atmosphere in which people are afraid to speak their minds.

If the KMT and the pro-blue media believe their own assertions, how can they explain the series of open letters signed by a long list of overseas academics, raising doubts about the handling of the Chen case? The letters were signed by two dozen learned people from abroad, including John Tkacik, Arthur Waldron, June Teufel Dreyer, Stephen Yates, Gordon Chang (章家敦) and Nat Bellocchi. The writers voiced their suspicion that the corruption cases now under way are aimed solely at Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and allied politicians, while overlooking corruption among KMT figures. The letters speak of the “erosion of the judicial system in Taiwan” and warn the KMT against taking Taiwan “backwards to the unfair and unjust procedures as practiced during the dark days of Martial Law.”

Most of the signatories are respected specialists in various aspects of Taiwan-China relations, who would hardly put their reputations on the line by showing bias in favor of a particular political figure. Working as they do in different places — the US, Canada, Australia and other countries — they nevertheless share similar views on the conduct of the Chen case, prompting them to pen their names to the joint open letters. Pan-blue adherents may wish to classify these overseas academics as being pan-green, too, but how can they explain why Ma’s former teacher, professor Jerome Cohen, has also criticized the conduct of the Chen case as unjust?

Cohen was Ma’s professor when he was studying for a doctorate at Harvard. Media reports said Cohen offered advice to Ma when he became KMT party chairman and when he was running for president. When questions were raised as to whether Ma had acted as a paid government informer when he was studying abroad, Cohen spoke out on Ma’s behalf several times. After Ma’s inauguration, he invited Cohen to visit him at the Presidential Office. Cohen, a renowned jurist and expert on Chinese affairs, recently published an opinion piece in the South China Morning Post under the title “Chen judges bungle their chance.” In the article, Cohen raised serious questions about the legal process, the presumption of innocence, the conduct of the prosecution and the independence and impartiality of Taiwan’s judiciary.

The pan-blues may even try to characterize Cohen as a pan-green supporter, but they would find it hard to explain the contents of an editorial entitled “A calm look at the controversy over pre-trial detention” that recently appeared in the pro-blue China Times. The editorial asserts that “the existing system of pre-trial detention is dominated by the authoritarian notion that anyone accused of a crime should be arrested and locked up straight away,” and that whether a suspect is presumed to be guilty or innocent “marks the dividing line between a police state and a democratic country.” The stance of the editorial is very clear, stopping only one step short of saying that Ma’s government has turned Taiwan into a police state.

The two dozen academics and experts who signed the open letters and Ma’s mentor Cohen all agree that the conduct of the Chen case has been unjust. They do not seek to shield the corrupt, nor are their comments irrational. On the contrary, they have spoken out precisely because they are concerned for the truth and for judicial and human rights in Taiwan. Their purpose is, as the China Times editorial said, “to prevent anyone from being deprived of his or her constitutional right to due judicial process.”

If government authorities are allowed to trample on the rights of Chen today, they may abuse their powers with regard to anyone tomorrow.

In his conclusion, Cohen raised doubts that the defendants in the Chen cases could receive a fair judgment. That is why Max Chiang (江建祥), a Taiwanese lawyer practicing in the US, suggested that Chen should refuse to recognize the court and should remain silent, as is his right, on the grounds that the judges have acted unconstitutionally.

It would be meaningless for them to present any kind of defense, because the demand for the most severe penalty is already written into the indictment and it is in effect only a matter of waiting for instructions from the government as to how many years the accused will be sentenced to spend in jail. Each time he appears in court, Chen will merely be playing a walk-on part in a stage show whose script has already been written.

Cao Changqing is a writer based in the US.
　

Showing Taiwan to the world
　

FROM DEVON TO TAMSUI: Long-time Taipei resident Samson Ellis has brought an English voice to Formosa TV’s news, as well as writing a series of documentaries for the Discovery Channel presenting stories from Taiwan to an international audience

By David Chen
STAFF REPORTER
Tuesday, Feb 10, 2009, Page 1

VIEW THIS PAGE

Like any journalist or writer, Englishman Samson Ellis appreciates a good story no matter how unusual or strange. Taiwan certainly has its fair share.

“Do you remember the exploding sperm whale?” he says.

Ellis, editor-in-chief of English news at Formosa TV (FTV, 民視), remembers when his station covered the story of the 17m-long, 50-tonne sperm whale that died after being stranded on a beach.

The creature’s body burst open while being transported through Tainan, bringing traffic to a halt as it splattered cars and passersby with blood and guts.

“Stuff like that — that’s Taiwan,” he says laughing.

While he relishes such stories that spice up the typical news cycle, Ellis has also been exploring some lesser-known tales about Taiwan. Last year he wrote a series of one-hour documentaries that aired at the end of last year on the Discovery Channel.

There are no exploding animals in Unknown Taiwan, but the series offers enough intrigue to engage both local and international viewers. In an episode on Tamsui, two historians set out to try to find the fabled secret tunnels extending from the Dutch-built Fort San Domingo (紅毛城) to Keelung.

Another episode looks at the coastline of Penghu, the site of numerous maritime disasters and plane crashes, and entertains the existence of a Bermuda Triangle-like phenomenon near the island.

In his role as scriptwriter, Ellis said he tried to draw out elements of Taiwan that had universal appeal.

“When you’re writing for the Discovery Channel especially, you’ve always got to be thinking, okay, why should some guy in Mexico be watching this?” he says. “You’re really writing for a global international audience, so that’s always on your mind.”

The series also tells the story of a Japanese pilot who was born and raised in Hualien and served in a Japanese air force squadron secretly stationed on Taiwan during World War II. Just before the pilot was about to embark on his ultimate mission, a kamikaze raid, the war ended. The show documents the pilot’s visit to his childhood home and school in Hualien.

In addition to gaining an appreciation for Taiwan’s colonial history and Aboriginal roots, Ellis says he enjoys the “craft” aspect of making the documentaries: creating narratives that could “really sustain people, and people from anywhere, for an hour.”

The idea of keeping people’s attention brought him back to basics in working with the Taiwanese production companies that were commissioned by Discovery and the Government Information Office to produce the shows.

According to Ellis, Unknown Taiwan marked the first time that Discovery had a writer involved during the early planning stages for its programs produced by local production houses.

He said one challenge was to help the production companies think in terms of a global audience.

“I was very adamant — okay, you need a lot of maps [in the shows]. First of all, you need to tell people where the hell Taiwan is — a lot of people aren’t going to know where Taiwan is,” he says.

“You’re trying to reach out to people who aren’t interested in Taiwan with an interesting story about Taiwan. So you’ve got to give lots of basic information, stuff like what were the Japanese doing [here]?” he says.

Ellis’ own interest in Taiwan goes back to his student days and an enthusiasm for languages. The 32-year-old from Devon spent his high school years in Germany, where he became fluent in German and learned French, and studied at the University of Edinburgh, where he received his master’s degree in Chinese.

A year abroad at National Taiwan Normal University during his university days encouraged Ellis to return to Taiwan to live and work at the end of 2001. Intending to stay for just one year, he ended up working at the English daily Taiwan News for several years before moving to FTV.

What has kept Ellis in Taiwan and at FTV is the fast-paced and intense environment of the television newsroom.

“It’s never boring, every day’s different — there’s just so many possibilities, especially when you’ve got to condense everything into a small show,” he said. “You’ve got to be so succinct, there’s no room, there’s no time and there’s no space for any extraneous information and so writing for TV is a real skill…it’s one I didn’t appreciate when I went there [FTV].”

While the show may not appear as slick as an international news program, Ellis said that local organizations are taking notice and over the past several years, the program has been nominated for a number of awards.

Ellis continues to work for Discovery and also writes for the channel’s popular program Fun Taiwan (瘋台灣), collaborating with his friend and the show’s presenter, Janet Hsieh (謝怡芬). He is also working on a documentary to commemorate the 10th anniversary of the 9/21 earthquake.

In between eight-hour work days at FTV and writing for Discovery programs, Ellis still finds the time to play soccer in several local leagues and mountain biking.

And he would rather be busy working than idle.

“I know myself … if I didn’t do it, I’d be sitting at home watching TV,” he said.

China’s ‘decency’ campaigns may face new challenges
　

Internet censorship is nothing new in China, but the wild card this time may be an economic downturn that is feeding public discontent

By Andrew Jacobs
NY TIMES NEWS SERVICE, BEIJING
Tuesday, Feb 10, 2009, Page 9

It was meant to be a tongue-in-cheek alternative to the stultifying variety show beamed into hundreds of millions of living rooms on the eve of each Lunar New Year holiday. But the program, called Shanzhai, or the “knockoff” gala, was not to be.

After television stations withdrew their promised slots, the extravaganza’s producers turned to the Internet. Those who tried to download the three-hour program on Jan. 25, however, were disappointed. The show had been quashed by censors, presumably for its mockery of a hallowed state-molded institution.

The incident has provoked howls among China’s so-called netizens, who say it is another example of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) heavy-handed oversight of the Web. Since early last month, the government has been waging a “decency” campaign that has closed 1,500 Web sites found to contain sex, violence or “vulgarity.” Numerous other sites, including Google, have responded by removing any pages that might offend puritanical sensibilities.

But indecency is often in the eye of the beholder. Last month, Bullog, a popular bastion for freewheeling bloggers, was shut down for what the authorities said were its “large amounts of harmful information on current events,” according to a notice posted by the site’s founder, Luo Yonghao (羅永浩).

When Luo briefly resuscitated the site on Sunday using an overseas server, it was blocked again.

Many people here believe that Bullog may have crossed a line by posting information about Charter 08, a petition calling for democratic reforms. Organizers say the manifesto has garnered thousands of signatures since its introduction in December. Within the Chinese Internet firewall, it is now nearly impossible to find a copy.

While some see the month-long crackdown as a portent of increasing government restrictions on electronic expression, those who follow China’s evolving relationship with the Internet say it is too soon to tell.

“The authorities tighten the screws every few months and some periods are tighter than others, so this is nothing new,” said Xiao Qiang (蕭強), director of the China Internet Project at the University of California, Berkeley.

But the wild card this time, Xiao and others say, is an economic downturn that has the potential to put the oversight of online content to a new test.

For years, China has tried to strike a balance between allowing growth of the Web and preventing it from undermining party rule. But popular anger against official corruption or ineptitude may become harder to contain in an era of economic pain.

Despite building one of the most sophisticated Internet firewalls, China still has one of the most dynamic communities of Web users in the world. There are more than 70 million bloggers in China and last month officials said the number of Web users approached 300 million, more than that of any other country.

The Web has become a forum for public activism that would be speedily suppressed, or widely ignored, if it occurred offline. In recent months, a spate of vigilante campaigns have been waged against low-level officials accused of corruption or unseemly behavior.

In one case in December, a photograph of Zhou Jiugeng (周久耕), a Nanjing housing official, found its way onto the Web. Bloggers noticed the US$15,000 Swiss watch on his wrist and the US$22-a-pack cigarettes on the table in front of him. Two weeks later, Zhou was fired after investigators determined that he had led an improbably lavish lifestyle for a modestly salaried civil servant.

Then there is the case of a Wenzhou government delegation whose publicly funded junket to Las Vegas, Niagara Falls and Vancouver was exposed by a blogger who found a bag of incriminating receipts on a Shanghai subway. Two top officials were ousted from their jobs; the other nine travelers were forced to write self-criticism essays.

These and other incidents have convinced commentators like Ai Weiwei (艾未未) that the Web will pave the way to an era of free speech and democracy.

“As long as people care about society’s problems, they will go to the Web to look for information,” he said.

An artist who is one of China’s most widely read bloggers, Ai helped inspire a surge of populist support for Yang Jia (楊佳), an unemployed 28-year-old convicted of killing six police officers in Shanghai. Although he was executed in November, Yang gained considerable public sympathy after Ai and other bloggers highlighted the abuse Yang said he had suffered at the hands of the police before his murderous rampage.

Ai said the government’s noose would tighten if public unrest grew, but any attempt to strengthen Internet restrictions would backfire.

“Clamping down will only produce more of an outcry for democracy,” he said.

The government is positioned to prevent the outcry from growing voluble. Although imperfect, their weapons include a firewall that effectively blocks foreign Web sites by groups like Amnesty International, the Falun Gong and Chinese-language media sites in Taiwan.

Then there are the untold thousands of paid commentators who pose as ordinary Web users to counter criticism of the government. Known as “50 Cent Party” members, these shapers of public opinion are often paid a small sum for every posting.

Speaking at a media forum in Beijing last week, Liu Zhengrong (劉正榮), one of the government’s top propaganda officials, warned his colleagues to be vigilant in the coming year, which will include the 20th anniversary of the crackdown in Tiananmen Square and the 50th anniversary of the Tibetan uprising that led to the Dalai Lama’s exile.

“You have to check the channels one by one, the programs one by one, the pages one by one,” he said, according to Southern Weekend, a newspaper known for its investigative reporting. “You must not miss any step. You must not leave any unchecked corners.”

Rebecca MacKinnon, an assistant professor at the University of Hong Kong’s Journalism and Media Studies Center, has no illusions about the Internet as a vehicle for political reform.

The Web may be a hurly-burly of opinion and criticism, she said, but the moment that participants talk about organizing, the conversation — and the site — are shut down.

“All this Internet discourse has not brought China closer to democracy than it was 10 years ago,” MacKinnon said.

In some ways, she said, the government uses the Internet as a pressure valve that allows aggrieved citizens to blow off steam before their fury comes to a head.

“One can make the argument that the Internet enables the Communist Party to remain in power longer because it provides a space for people to air grievances without allowing real change,” she said.