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Arms sale could provide slim boost to
Ma’s image
TIMELY HELP: While the sale could help Ma in the short
term, it will have no lasting effect if other items, such as F-16s and submarine
upgrades, do not materialize
By Ralph Jennings
Reuters, TAIPEI
Tuesday, Feb 02, 2010, Page 3
The recently announced arms sale is likely to give a short-term boost to the
flagging popularity of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) by making him look strong in
standing up to China, but may delay the critical trade deals he has pushed.
Ma came to power in 2008 on a platform of promoting detente with China and has
agreed to several trade and transit deals, opening direct flights and welcoming
tourists.
Ma’s acceptance of a US$6.4 billion package of weapons such as advanced Patriot
missiles in the teeth of strong Chinese opposition is a riposte to opponents in
Taiwan who accuse him and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) of getting too
close to Beijing.
“This will give Ma points, though they could be limited,” said Hsu Yung-ming
(徐永明), political scientist at Soochow University in Taipei. “He’s still looking
more at domestic issues.”
Ma’s popularity has fallen in polls over the last six months over local issues
such as the heavily criticized response to Typhoon Morakot in August and the
lifting of a ban on certain US beef imports that had been imposed because of
concerns over mad cow disease.
Analysts said the arms sale should see support for the KMT strengthen ahead of
legislative by-elections later this month.
Over the weekend, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office warned that the arms sales could
obstruct the peaceful development of cross-strait ties.
“Beijing’s strong reaction to Washington’s announcement of weapon sales to
Taiwan is a reflection of Beijing’s lack of confidence about the future’s
peaceful solution of [sic] Taiwan,” said Zhu Feng (朱楓), a regional security
specialist at Peking University.
And any boost in popularity for Ma will fade fast if he fails to fulfill public
expectations for 66 more advanced F-16 fighter aircraft and US help with a
submarine upgrade, items crucial to narrowing China’s military advantage,
experts said.
Those weapons, which had been requested by Taiwan, were not part of the package
announced on Friday, which comprised five separate sales, including Black Hawk
helicopters and missile interceptors.
“These items are not enough for a more secure feeling,” said Alexander Huang
(黃介正), strategic studies professor at Tamkang University. “We do need some
advanced jet fighters and we do need some underwater systems.”
Neither Washington nor Taipei appears likely to push hard for more weapons
systems given Beijing’s response, which threatens already tense Sino-US
relations.
China is already expected to punish Taiwan over the recent arms announcement by
suspending economic exchanges, though it has yet to say exactly how cross-strait
cooperation will be affected.
“They won’t be canceling talks because of this, but minor exchanges might be
delayed, canceled or rescheduled,” said Joseph Lau, an economist with Credit
Suisse in Hong Kong.
But the economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) Taipei hopes to sign
with Beijing could get pushed back as far as next year, said Raymond Wu,
managing director of Taipei-based political risk consultancy e-telligence.
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