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The ECFA hoax and Chinese swindlers
By Lin Kien-tsu 林健次
Saturday, Mar 13, 2010, Page 8
Late last month, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (溫家寶) said the Chinese government
would look after the interests of Taiwan’s small and medium enterprises as well
as Taiwanese nationals, especially farmers. Wen said China could make interest
concessions because “Taiwanese compatriots are our brothers.” He sounded as if
he were trying to run for the Taiwanese presidency.
Not long afterward, Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait Chairman
Chen Yunlin (陳雲林) said Taiwan and China would likely sign an economic
cooperation and framework agreement (ECFA) within five or six months. Over the
course of just a few days, Chinese officials, both high and low, talked about
making interest concessions and set up dates for the signing of an ECFA. This is
very suspicious.
China’s reasoning is simple. According to WTO regulations, once Taiwan and China
sign an ECFA, they must sign a free-trade agreement (FTA) within 10 years.
Therefore, an ECFA is like a legally binding engagement ceremony that requires
marriage within a certain period of time, a marriage one cannot withdraw from.
China is therefore prepared to make all sorts of promises before the engagement,
because once an ECFA is signed, Taiwan will have no way of getting out of a
cross-strait FTA.
In addition to mutual tariff exemptions, an FTA requires that the signatories
deregulate their service industries. This implies that large numbers of people
in the Chinese service industry will move to Taiwan, thereby bringing about a
“one China market.” Research by Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research
estimates that 60 percent of Taiwan’s increased exports following the signing of
an ECFA would go to China, while imports of Chinese products to Taiwan would
crowd out products from other countries. Taiwan’s trade would become
concentrated on China, which will give Beijing more power to manipulate Taiwan’s
economy.
Because of the difference in size between China and Taiwan in a “one China
market,” Beijing’s power to call the shots on Taiwan’s economic policy will
increase, and Chinese authorities will be able to control the distribution of
economic benefits among the Taiwanese public. Taiwanese businesspeople and
political hacks who only care about their own interests will have to kowtow to
China and avoid saying and doing things that could offend the Chinese government
and powerful people there. Politicians will have to pay heed to their master
when handling cross-strait relations and Taiwan’s domestic affairs, which would
give China control over Taiwan’s political and economic situation and annex
Taiwan without sacrificing a single soldier.
It was not very strange, then, that Wen juxtaposed an ECFA and peaceful
unification on Friday last week, because one is a natural and necessary
prerequisite for the other. While officials have said an ECFA will not include
mention of unification, unification is precisely what it is aimed at, and that
is a very smart form of trickery. This is why it is a total hoax when Premier Wu
Den-yih (吳敦義) said he would resign if an ECFA mentions the word “unification.”
Once an ECFA is signed, it will only be a matter of time before the Chinese
Communist Party gains control over Taiwan’s economic and political interests and
annexes the country. When that happens, China will retract all the benefits it
has used as bait to get Taiwan on the hook.
In the whole ECFA hoax, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has the shadiest role. Is
he really a fool fishing for short-term gain or a swindler pretending to be a
fool?
Lin Kien-tsu is a member of the Taiwan Association of
University Professors.
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