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Caught in the midst of hegemonic
rivalries
By Shiau Chyuan-jenq 蕭全政
Wednesday, May 05, 2010, Page 8
A literal interpretation of the title of the proposed economic cooperation
framework agreement (ECFA) suggests it concerns only economic issues between
Taiwan and China. If we look at the substance of the agreement, however, it also
has political and national security repercussions for the relationship between
the two countries. Beyond this, the implications also extend to political,
economic and security issues for East Asia, as well as its very stability and
prosperity.
East Asia has been the site of geopolitical tensions since the 17th century,
with major disputes between Eurasia and the countries along the Pacific Rim, and
struggles for hegemony between land and sea powers since the late 19th century.
The region has been a stage for confrontations between the Allied and Axis
powers during World War II, the East and West during the Cold War, the US-backed
“peaceful evolution movement” and the Chinese Communist Party in the 1990s, as
well as China’s “peaceful rise” that challenges US hegemony today.
Taiwan has consistently found itself involved in one struggle or the other —
from being a remote Chinese territory, to being a Dutch and Spanish colony, then
serving as Koxinga (國姓爺) or Zheng Chenggong’s (鄭成�?ase from which to “overturn
the Qing Dynasty and restore the Ming Dynasty.” It later became a Japanese
colony, serving Tokyo as a springboard to the south, before becoming the US’
Cold War ally as a bulwark against communism.
However, since the US changed its China policy in the 1970s, followed by China’s
adoption of a “reform and opening up” policy, Taiwan’s position between rival
powers in the region has been colored considerably by the “Chinese factor,”
causing both its political isolation and economic marginalization. As a result,
the “status quo” is actually the worst option for the country, as the rival
powers have repeatedly manipulated it because of its isolated and marginalized
status. On the one hand, the US has pushed for Taiwan’s NT$610.8 billion
(US$19.4 billion) arms procurement. On the other, China has attracted between
NT$200 billion and NT$300 billion of Taiwanese investment. The US and Japan even
refuse to sign free-trade agreements with Taiwan, leaving it to face China on
its own.
Former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) attempted to challenge China with his
“scorched earth diplomacy” so as to break through Beijing’s blockade. For his
pains, he was branded a “troublemaker” by the US and Japan among others. Ma’s
East Asia policy is the chalk to Chen’s cheese. Thus, it is seeking cross-strait
reconciliation first in order to extricate itself from the dilemma of being
caught between rival powers.
From such developments over the past two years, Taiwan’s relations with
Washington and Tokyo in particular have greatly improved and it now has more
breathing room internationally than before, though the situation remains far
from ideal. After all, Taiwan’s China policy has to conform to the framework of
the hegemonic struggles between the region’s rival powers. In particular, as it
pursues cross-strait reconciliation, it has to recognize the US and Japan as its
security and economic partners.
While China views current cross-strait relations as a peaceful development, its
ultimate goal is undoubtedly peaceful unification. For Taiwan, since unification
is not feasible, defining cross-strait relations as a blend of “peaceful
competition and peaceful cooperation” that involves neither unification nor
independence seems to be a more pragmatic plan that, while unsatisfactory for
Beijing, is at least acceptable. The point is, Taiwan has to bear in mind the
strategy behind signing an ECFA with China.
Shiau Chyuan-jenq is a professor in the department of
political science at National Taiwan University.
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