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Expanding US-China military exchanges
By Richard Halloran
Wednesday, May 19, 2010, Page 8
Even as China has taken a great leap forward to acquire a modern deep-water
navy, a tone of skepticism has crept into US intelligence and academic
assessments, some asserting that it will be a decade before China can seriously
challenge the US Navy.
The skeptics are quick to acknowledge, however, that the chances of a Chinese
miscalculation caused by over-confidence become more possible by the day. Thus
they urge the US and China to expand military exchanges and to work out an
agreement to prevent an incident at sea from spiraling into a crisis.
The US and the USSR had such an agreement during the Cold War. They agreed,
among other things, not to train guns on each other¡¦s ships, not to fly over the
other navy¡¦s ships and to make extensive use of international signals to avoid
collisions.
Reflecting a growing awareness of Chinese naval power is an article by Robert
Kaplan of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank, in
the latest issue of Foreign Affairs magazine.
¡§In the twenty-first century China will project hard power abroad primarily
through its navy,¡¨ Kaplan wrote.
Kaplan points to several missions for China¡¦s People¡¦s Liberation Army Navy
(PLAN).
¡§China¡¦s actions abroad are propelled by its need to secure energy, metals, and
strategic minerals¡¨ to support its surging economy, Kaplan said.
The PLAN has been tasked to push China¡¦s frontiers into the sea east and south
to encompass Taiwan, the US territories of Guam and the Northern Marianas, the
Philippines and Indonesia.
¡§The Chinese see all these islands,¡¨ Kaplan said, ¡§as archipelagic extensions of
the Chinese landmass.¡¨
China is investing in submarines, destroyers, aircraft and missiles in a fleet
designed, Kaplan wrote, ¡§to block the US Navy from entering the East China Sea
and other Chinese Coastal Waters.¡¨ That ¡§anti-access¡¨ or ¡§denial¡¨ strategy
applies to the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, which China claims are
territorial waters.
Like other analysts, however, Kaplan acknowledges that China ¡§is still a long
way from challenging the United States militarily.¡¨
Much attention has been focused on Chinese warships, aircraft and weapons, but
the PLAN¡¦s greatest weakness is the lack of naval tradition and experience
needed to practice good seamanship. US naval officers, chief petty officers, or
sailors have 400 years of tradition and experience behind them, 200 from the
British Navy and 200 in the US Navy.
In contrast, China has been a land power that has produced only one great
admiral in its long history, Zheng He (¾G©M), who led seven voyages into the
Pacific and Indian Oceans in the early 15th century. After his death in 1433,
China¡¦s emperors lost interest in naval exploration.
Today¡¦s PLAN was organized in 1950 after the Chinese Communist Party had come to
power. The PLAN inherited old equipment and poorly-trained sailors from the KMT
and, in its early days, was trained by the Soviet Navy, itself staffed by
artillery officers of a massed land army that had been put to sea.
US and Japanese naval officers who have observed PLAN ships maneuver at sea have
remarked on the poor quality of ship handling, although one experienced US
officer said he had seen improvements. Japanese officers were concerned when a
Chinese helicopter flew near Japanese warships south of Okinawa recently, not
because it was a threat but because the Chinese pilot wasn¡¦t well trained.
Informed analysts said China¡¦s military leaders recognized the shortcomings of
PLAN sailors and are seeking to train them better.
Richard Halloran is a freelance writer in Hawaii.
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