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How to measure cross-strait peace
By Tung Chen-yuan µ£®¶·½
Saturday, Jun 12, 2010, Page 8
The state and direction of peaceful relations between Taiwan
and China is a matter of global concern, so it would be helpful if we could
develop a set of indices to empirically measure the situation and help compile
an overall cross-strait peace index.
Such an index might be used to encourage progress in cross-strait relations and
provide a much-needed warning in the event that either side does something to
provoke conflict.
The degree of cross-strait peace is measured by objective factors such as
military conflict, preparations for conflict and the will to resolve disputes
through peaceful or non-belligerent means. In general, the absence of
cross-strait military conflict can be called peace, though even with the absence
of such conflict, it remains an open question as to whether the situation is
stable and sustainable or could easily descend into military conflict.
As such, a peace index needs to do more than just demonstrate an absence of
military conflict ”X it must also measure the stability and sustainability of
peace.
Since it is hard to directly observe whether the two governments are willing to
resolve disputes through peaceful means, stability and sustainability can be
assessed according to three factors ”X the existence of institutional mechanisms
to safeguard peace, regular interaction between the two governments and the
extent of goodwill or animosity between ordinary people in Taiwan and China.
To achieve full marks, cross-strait peace must simultaneously meet four criteria
”X the absence of open military conflict, the existence of institutional
mechanisms to safeguard peace, regular interaction between the two governments,
the absence of animosity and the existence of considerable goodwill between the
two populations.
However, these factors are covariant with multiple interlocking causes and
effects, so the cross-strait peace index also needs to incorporate composite
weighting.
For example, continued cross-strait consultations should be able to change the
degree of animosity between people on the two sides. Talks can help improve
interactions between the two governments and hasten the establishment of
institutional mechanisms to safeguard peace in the Taiwan Strait.
Below, the content and scoring methodology applied to the four criteria and the
composite weighting score is explained.
With regards to military conflict, failure to renounce the use of armed force to
resolve cross-strait problems results in a score of minus 25 points. If any of
the following occur, the score will be as follows: targeted military
deployments, minus 25 points; war games, minus 10; military mobilizations, minus
15, and for military conflict, minus 25.
Looking at institutional mechanisms to safeguard peace, the scores are as
follows: If the two sides sign a comprehensive economic agreement, 15 points; a
diplomatic agreement of understanding, 20 points; establishing a cross-strait
mechanism to build mutual trust in military affairs, 30 points and for a peace
agreement, 35 points.
As to mechanisms for regular interaction between the two governments, the
following scores are given: If there are no verbal attacks on leaders of the
other side, 5 points; not accusing one side of altering the status quo or
undermining peace, 5 points; sustained cross-strait consultations, 15 points;
talks between vice ministers on either side, 10 points; talks between officials
of ministerial or higher rank, 15 points; exchange of permanent representative
offices, 25 points; and high-level talks between the two sides, 25 points.
Regarding the index of goodwill between ordinary people on either side of the
Taiwan strait: If the Chinese government shows goodwill toward people in Taiwan,
the score is 25 points; If it displays animosity toward Taiwanese, minus 25
points; If Taiwan”¦s government shows goodwill toward people in China 25 points
and animosity, minus 25 points.
Composite weighting is applied as follows: Mechanisms to safeguard peace (A)
carry a 65 percent weighting, mechanisms for official interaction (B) 40 percent
and cross-strait public goodwill (C) 35 percent. Next, the overlapping effect is
set at 35 percent for A and B, 20 percent for B and C and 10 percent for A and
C. If open military conflict breaks out, the peace index will be 0. If the
scores add up to more than 100, then the index will be capped at 100.
We can now consider the current state of cross-strait relations. China has not
renounced the use of armed force against Taiwan, so the score for that is minus
25. China does have military deployments targeted at Taiwan for a further minus
25. There is no institutional mechanism to safeguard peace in the Taiwan Strait,
so the score for that is 0.
Both governments have refrained from making personal attacks on leaders of the
other side so that is worth 5 points. A further 5 points are added because
neither side is currently accusing the other of changing the status quo or
undermining peace. The two sides are also currently engaged in sustained
consultations, scoring 15 points.
Cross-strait public goodwill is estimated at 35 points. Taking all these factors
into account, we conclude that the current cross-strait peace index is 64.1
points.
Tung Chen-yuan is a professor in the Graduate Institute of
Development Studies at National Chengchi University.
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