20100627 ‘Guru’ is blind to reality of China

‘Guru’ is blind to reality of China

Sunday, Jun 27, 2010, Page 8

Today’s rally in protest against a “one China” market and calling for a referendum on the soon to be signed cross-strait economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) appears likely to attract large crowds. President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and his ministers, for their part, have not sat idly by in the face of mounting public opposition to an ECFA. Government departments have been spending taxpayers’ money to trumpet the supposed benefits of the agreement, while at the same time speeding up negotiations with China to get the pact signed as soon as possible.

On Tuesday, Japanese business strategist Kenichi Ohmae was invited by the Office of the President to give a lecture. Ohmae used the occasion to extol the virtues of an ECFA, describing it as a finely concocted dose of vitamins that would revive Taiwan’s economy and keep it on the track to success.

Attending the talk, Ma lauded Ohmae as a master of future trends, but many things the supposed guru said raise questions about his understanding of Taiwan and China. For instance, he said that Asia as a whole is becoming more and more dependent on China, but that Taiwan, with its distinct advantages, has avoided becoming excessively reliant on its giant neighbor. He should be aware that China’s “united front” strategy is to use economic means to draw Taiwan more closely into its orbit. Once Taiwan has become completely dependent, it will be firmly in China’s grasp.

Prominent Chinese economist and government adviser Hu Angang (胡鞍鋼) once said that Taiwan needs trade with China like a diabetic needs insulin and questioned whether Taiwan could survive without regular doses. He added that if China were to start a trade war with Taiwan, it would be over within seven days. Ohmae would do well to learn a bit more about China’s strategy to force unification on Taiwan by economic means.

He went on to say that the Taiwan must forge ahead with signing the ECFA. Once an ECFA is signed, he said, it will evolve into a free-trade agreement (FTA), allowing Taiwan to compete on a level playing field.

It appears that Ohmae failed to do his homework before seeking to enlighten Ma and his government officials. If he had done so, surely he would know why the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Communist-led governments are signing an ECFA, which is not a country-to-country agreement, instead of an FTA, which is a pact between two countries.

Moreover, Chinese officials have already made it very clear that once the ECFA is signed, Taiwan will have to obtain China’s approval before signing an FTA with any other country. Yet Ohmae seemed to be completely unaware of this. His seminar was clearly intended to cast the ECFA in the best possible light, without mentioning any drawbacks. Only bureaucrats serving in Ma’s government, shrouded as they are in self-deception, could stand to hear such a one-sided sermon.

We suggest that Ohmae take advantage of his visit to Taiwan to do some on-the-ground research. China paints a marvelous picture of an ECFA’s benefits and Ohmae himself describes the proposed agreement as packed with vitamins needed for Taiwan’s continued good health. He should ask himself why, despite all the propaganda, most Taiwanese people still harbor doubts. Why do they still worry that Taiwan’s economy will become locked into the Chinese market, that job opportunities will dry up and real wages fall and that Taiwan’s sovereignty will be threatened?

This weekend’s protest march opposing a “one China” market and calling for an ECFA referendum can be seen as an expression of these worries. Opposing a “one China” market means rejecting both dependence on a single Chinese market and the so-called “one-China principle.”

If Taiwan’s economy is locked into a single Chinese market, its industries and jobs will be hollowed out even more than they are already and the national economy and people’s livelihood will suffer. If Taiwan’s sovereignty is locked into a single China, Taiwanese will lose the right to determine their own future. In the end, they will be like lambs to the slaughter. That is why so many people insist on exercising their constitutional right to a referendum.

Ohmae hails from a sovereign, independent nation, so surely he wouldn’t suggest that the Taiwanese should just bow down and accept this fate.

When he ran for president, Ma said that Taiwan’s future should be decided by the 23 million Taiwanese, without any interference from the Chinese communists. Now, however, he has gone back on those words. Ma’s administration has evaded public and legislative oversight by negotiating with China in secret. By so doing, it will bind Taiwan to China, first economically and then politically.

What Taiwan gets in the process is neither favors from China nor Ohmae’s so-called “vitamins.” A more likely outcome is Hu’s “diabetes.” Anyone with the slightest medical knowledge knows that if Taiwan had diabetes, then it would depend on China’s insulin to keep it alive. In that kind of relationship, if Taiwan happened to offend China in any way, China could cut off the insulin supply and Taiwan would perish. Once Taiwan’s sickness became incurable, China could negate its sovereignty with ease.

The Taiwanese public have long since wised up to Ma’s desire for eventual unification. It seems they are smarter than Ohmae, who, despite his reputation as a master of future trends, seems to have little idea about where an ECFA with communist China is likely to lead.