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ECFA deal more like addictive narcotic
By Allen Houng ¬x¸Î§»
Tuesday, Jun 29, 2010, Page 8
Recent media reports on the planned economic cooperation
framework agreement (ECFA) between Taiwan and China have focused on the ¡§early
harvest¡¨ list. Machine tools mentioned by President Ma Ying-jeou (°¨^¤E) in an
ECFA debate, as well as the petrochemical and automobile sectors, seem to have
become an index of success or failure, but this has taken us off on a tangent.
China¡¦s intention in allowing Taiwanese to profit more from the ¡§early harvest¡¨
list is clear. Granting economic concessions makes perfect political sense on
Beijing¡¦s part. The signing of an ECFA, then, is advantageous to Taiwan for the
time being, as the nation is likely to benefit from it over the next two or
three years. However, the short-term benefits may be blinding us to the
long-term drawbacks. If we merely focus on the list or short-term economic
gains, we are leaving ourselves open to the machinations of Ma and Chinese
President Hu Jintao (JÀAÀÜ).
From an economic perspective, China¡¦s ploy is to undermine the industries where
Taiwan retains an advantage. The generosity shown to the weaker industries is an
attempt to buy off Taiwan¡¦s middle and working classes: It is essentially the
so-called ¡§united front¡¨ at work, through the economy. Furthermore, it is not
extended to the industries where Taiwan is strong.
Hu knows that he cannot let Taiwan develop its economy independent of China and
that he needs to make it difficult for our competitive sectors to survive in
Taiwan in order to force them to relocate to China. Yes, the list does
incorporate some of these sectors, but as the saying goes, the devil is in the
details.
The Chinese government will inevitably employ all the means at its disposal to
prevent the sectors from benefiting from the list, forcing them to move to
China. As a result, Taiwan¡¦s industries will become a part of China¡¦s production
chain in terms of labor distribution and will be stuck in a state of economic
dependence on China.
On Tuesday last week, Japanese strategist Kenichi Ohmae, during a speech at the
Presidential Office, likened the planned ECFA to a vitamin for Taiwan¡¦s economy.
But what kind of vitamin is this that is going to make Taiwan economically
addicted to China?
Taiwan¡¦s situation is somewhat different from that of Japan and South Korea,
which have their own ¡§industry clusters¡¨ responsible for medium and
high-technology research and development. Both of these countries are able to
make use of the Chinese market if they sign a free-trade agreement with China.
Taiwan¡¦s leading sectors, however, may not be around in less than 10 years¡¦
time. Is this really a vitamin? If anything, it seems more like a harmful
narcotic.
What is worse, an ECFA is quite similar to the Closer Economic Partnership
Arrangement Hong Kong and China signed.
In the next few years, salaries are likely to decline and the income gap widen
in Taiwan. Ohmae himself wrote a book about the so-called ¡§M-shaped society¡¨ in
2006. We can see this happening in Taiwan today, as the number of people under
the poverty line is increasing and social problems are on the rise. Are these
the ¡§benefits¡¨ that we can look forward from an ECFA?
Nobody opposes economic development and international trade. What the public
opposes is the Ma administration¡¦s opaque political agenda. In light of the
government¡¦s rash behavior, we should take to the streets if Ma continues to
block a referendum on the issue.
Allen Houng is a professor in the Institute of Philosophy of
Mind and Cognition at National Yang-Ming University.
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