20100803 Managing China’s political rise

Managing China’s political rise

Tuesday, Aug 03, 2010, Page 8

China will have the ability to build six 60,000 tonne to 70,000 tonne aircraft carriers in the five years from 2015, Japan’s Sankei Shimbun said, citing a report by the the US Congress’ Congressional Research Service. The report also says that China will spend US$2.5 billion on about 50 Russian Sukhoi Su-33 carrier-based multi-role fighter aircraft, and that, training for the pilots has already started. In addition, when the chief of general staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) recently inspected a military exercise, he demanded that the PLA pay special attention to changes in the development of formal duties, while making thorough preparations for military conflict. With all this activity, it’s quite clear that China has more than Taiwan in its sights.

From July 25 to July 29, before the dust had even had time to settle over the sinking of the Cheonan, the South Korean warship widely thought to have been hit and sunk by a North Korean torpedo, the US and South Korea held a joint military exercise, code-named “Invincible Spirit,” in the Sea of Japan. The exercise was originally supposed to take place in the Yellow Sea, but this met with protest, laced with implied threats, from China.

Those complaints notwithstanding, the US and South Korea have said that the scope of joint exercises scheduled for Aug. 16 to Aug. 26 will include the Yellow Sea. The US military explicitly stated that the objective of the next round of exercises was to make North Korea rethink its belligerent strategy. China’s strong objections were not, then, without good reason.

During an interview with the Liberty Times [the Taipei Times sister newspaper] a few days ago, a Japanese expert on Chinese military affairs, Shigeo Hiramatsu, said that these US-South Korean exercises were more than a show of force for the benefit of North Korea. He said the real goal was to put on a show for China, in the context of the continued expansion of its navy.

The Chinese Navy has increasingly been making its presence felt in the Pacific and has even been known to force Japanese oceanic survey ships out of the East China Sea.

North Korea feels that it has little to fear because it enjoys the support of the Chinese. As such, the US was keen to send a clear message to the North and to China, which obliged Beijing to flex its muscles, in turn, and undertake naval exercises in the North China Sea and East China Sea, as well as land-based military drills in the Jinan and Nanjing military regions. There can be little doubt that these exercises were held in response to the joint US-South Korean drills.

When US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke of US national interests in the South China Sea during a meeting of foreign ministers at the ASEAN Regional Forum, in Hanoi last month, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi (楊潔箎) protested her implied message in the strongest terms. He even launched into a tirade, saying that Beijing had refrained from coercing ASEAN nations into action over the South China Sea issue and openly accusing Clinton of what he said was, in effect, an attack on China.

All-in-all, there is a picture developing of a China which views itself as just starting to spread its wings, already confident in its ability to openly take on the US, even preparing for a day when it would be militarily able to do so.

When US President Barack Obama took office, he promised that the “[US would] not seek to contain China’s rise.” China, on the other hand, has directly challenged the US on a number of issues since those words were spoken: US arms sales to Taiwan, the yuan exchange rate and even the spat between China and Google, as well as numerous regional security issues.

In order to protest the US announcement of arms sales to Taiwan, Beijing rejeted a proposed a visit by US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. Arms sales are included in the Taiwan Relations Act and are aimed at helping maintain peace, security and stability in the Western Pacific.

Every time the US acts in accordance with this law China acts out. Beijing has almost 2,000 missiles aimed at Taiwan, yet still cannot countenance the US selling arms that are to be used for national defense. This makes it is quite clear that China is more than willing to challenge US national interests as part of its own efforts to annex Taiwan.

In the last few years China has made a nuisance of itself for the US across the world. It has offered economic and military support to any nation, including North Korea and Iran, that views the US as an enemy. Some even suspect China of exporting nuclear technology. All this has kept the US busy.

Not only did Beijing succeed in persuading other nations not to take punitive action against North Korea over the latter’s alleged sinking of the Cheonan, It also hinted that the whole affair had been concocted by the US and South Korea. This in turn prevented Washington from reining in North Korea. China was sending a very clear signal that, as time goes on, it will assert itself more, not only on the Korean Peninsula but in the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea. In other words China holds the balance between war and peace in its own hands.

The strategy of investing in China currently followed by Western countries, particularly the US, is based on the assumption that economic development will drive political reform. China’s rise, then, would be a peaceful one, resulting in the emergence of a superpower that could be trusted to act responsibly in world affairs.

It is now becoming all too apparent that this rapidly emerging nation is ruled by superstitious despots and that we simply cannot assume democracy, freedom and human rights will develop as a result of enhanced prosperity.

China is expanding its power under the guise of a peaceful rise, posing an increasing threat to surrounding countries as the weeks go by. In the case of Taiwan, the intention to annex is clear and Beijing is pulling all the levers at its disposal to this end, be they economic, political or military.

The US remains committed to maintaining peace, security and stability in the Western Pacific, but of course will not sit back and watch China compromise its own perceived national interests in the region. The recent spats between Beijing and Washington resulted from the fact that China is being increasingly assertive, particularly in an area it considers its own backyard.

The government in Taiwan is single-mindedly and willfully pro-China in its orientation. When it comes to making a choice between democratic allies or dictators, you have to be very careful which side you choose.