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PLA plans to isolate Taiwan: Pentagon
NO CARROT, BIG STICK: Beijing¡¦s strategy is to deter and repress political
attitudes supporting Taiwanese independence, although the use of force would be
a last resort
By William Lowther
STAFF REPORTER , WASHINGTON
Wednesday, Aug 18, 2010, Page 1
A new Pentagon report on the Chinese military concludes that
Beijing is rapidly expanding its armed forces ¡§to deter, delay or deny¡¨ any
possible US support for Taiwan in case of a conflict.
The report warns that despite the efforts of President Ma Ying-jeou (°¨^¤E) to
increase economic and cultural ties, China¡¦s military buildup continues
unabated.
¡§The balance of cross-strait military forces continues to shift in [China¡¦s]
favor,¡¨ the report says.
The long-awaited analysis, which comes about six months after its promised
delivery date, paints a grim picture at a time when US-China relations are
already strained over problems with North Korea and Beijing¡¦s disputed
territorial claims in the South China Sea.
Titled Annual Report on Security Developments Involving China, the 74-page
document says China¡¦s military growth and plans remain largely a mystery to the
US.
At the same time, Beijing¡¦s continued refusal to reveal its military¡¦s
intentions ¡§increases the potential for misunderstanding and miscalculation,¡¨
the report says.
¡§Extreme secrecy is increasingly difficult to reconcile with China¡¦s role in the
integrated global economy, which depends on transparency,¡¨ it says.
¡§Despite a reduction in tensions ... the possibility of a military conflict with
Taiwan and US military intervention remain the PLA¡¦s [People¡¦s Liberation Army]
most pressing long-term military concerns,¡¨ the report says.
¡§A potential cross-strait conflict will drive China¡¦s military modernization as
long as China¡¦s leaders judge that the permanent loss of Taiwan could seriously
undermine the regime¡¦s political legitimacy and hold on power,¡¨ it says. ¡§As
part of its planning for a Taiwan contingency, China continues to develop
measures to deter or counter third-party intervention, including by the United
States, in any future cross-strait crisis.¡¨
¡§China¡¦s approach to dealing with this challenge is manifest in a sustained
effort to develop the capability to attack, at long ranges, military forces that
might deploy or operate within the western Pacific,¡¨ the report says.
Beijing¡¦s strategy toward Taiwan, the report says, incorporates ¡§elements of
persuasion and coercion¡¨ to deter or repress the development of political
attitudes in Taiwan favoring independence.
¡§The PLA has developed and deployed military capabilities to coerce Taiwan or to
attempt an invasion if necessary,¡¨ it says.
However, Beijing, it adds, appears prepared to defer the use of force as long as
it believes that long-term reunification remains possible and the costs of
conflict outweigh the benefits.
¡§The PLA is capable of increasingly sophisticated military action against
Taiwan,¡¨ the report says.
¡§Some analysts hold that Beijing would first pursue a measured approach
characterized by signaling its readiness to use force, followed by a deliberate
buildup of force to optimize the speed of engagement over strategic deception,¡¨
it says.
¡§Others contend that it is more likely that Beijing would sacrifice preparations
in favor of surprise to force rapid military and or political resolution before
other countries could respond,¡¨ the report adds.
As of December last year, the PLA had deployed between 1,050 and 1,150 CSS-6 and
CSS-7 short-range ballistic missiles to units opposite Taiwan, and has since
upgraded the lethality of this force by introducing variants of these missiles
with improved ranges, accuracies and payloads, the report says.
The report says that China bases 490 combat aircraft within unrefueled
operational range of Taiwan and has the airfield capacity to expand that number
by hundreds.
In addition, the PLA has about 1.25 million personnel in its ground forces, with
about 400,000 based opposite Taiwan. While the report says that US President
Barack Obama has agreed to sell Taiwan US$6.4 billion in defensive arms, it
makes no mention of Taipei¡¦s request to buy 66 advanced new F-16C/D fighters.
If it did come to attack, the report predicts that China would be unable to
enforce a full maritime blockade, although its ability to do so will improve
¡§significantly¡¨ over the next five to 10 years.
Beijing might use a variety of disruptive, punitive or lethal military actions,
the report speculates, to ¡§induce fear in Taiwan and degrade the populace¡¦s
confidence in the Taiwan leadership.¡¨
Or, there could be limited air and missile attacks and precision strikes against
air defense systems, again conducted to degrade Taiwan¡¦s defenses, neutralize
the Taiwanese leadership and break people¡¦s will to fight.
The report says that a large-scale amphibious invasion is unlikely because it
would be a ¡§significant political and military risk.¡¨
However, the PLA is capable of accomplishing various amphibious operations short
of a full-scale invasion.
¡§With few overt military preparations beyond routine training, China could
launch an invasion of small Taiwan-held islands, such as the Pratas or Itu Aba.
A PLA invasion of a medium-sized, defended offshore island such as Mazu [Matsu]
or Jinmen [Kinmen] is within China¡¦s capabilities,¡¨ the report says.
¡§Such an invasion would demonstrate military capability and political resolve,
while achieving tangible territorial gain and simultaneously showing some
measure of restraint,¡¨ it says.
¡§However, this kind of operation includes significant, if not prohibitive,
political risk because it could galvanize the Taiwan populace and generate
international opposition,¡¨ the report says.
Reacting to the report, the Ministry of National Defense urged the US to sell
Taiwan advanced weapons systems.
The comments by ministry spokesman Yu Sy-tue (¸·«ä¯ª) were a reminder to the Obama
administration of its obligation to provide Taiwan with the means to defend
itself against a possible Chinese attack.
In his comments to reporters, Yu called on the US to sell Taiwan F-16C/D fighter
jets and diesel submarines, two systems that have been at the top of its
military wish list for most of this decade.
He also acknowledged that despite Ma¡¦s efforts to improve ties with Beijing:
¡§China has never given up the possibility to use force against Taiwan.¡¨
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