20101022 China poses challenge to new START ambitions

China poses challenge to new START ambitions

By Peter Brookes

Discussion of the US-Russia Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty — aka New START — has so far pretty much skipped one very important consideration: China.

In the run-up to last week’s Senate committee vote to send the treaty to the floor for ratification this fall, senators quite rightly debated whether New START overly restrains US missile-defense options, has weak verification procedures, cuts too many US missiles or warheads or might affect nuclear North Korea and near-nuclear Iran.

However, lawmakers haven’t yet fully faced the problem that, as we build down our strategic nuclear forces in the White House’s hopes that others will disarm, China is involved in a strategic buildup. So, before there’s any final vote, it’d be wise to give some thought to Beijing’s burgeoning bevy of bombs.

While the exact shape of China’s grand ambitions may not be clear, there’s little question they exist. Few would dispute that Beijing wouldn’t mind taking the head seat at the table of global powers, now occupied by Washington. As such, China has been growing all aspects of its national power. This is not limited to a break-neck conventional buildup; its strategic forces are booming, too.

China long relied on a small, land-based nuclear force of ICBMs in fixed silos and on a limited number of road-mobile missiles, providing for a “sufficient and effective” deterrence in Beijing’s eyes. However, the force has started getting bigger, better and badder. While the US strategic arsenal desperately needs updating, Chinese nuclear forces are being modernized.

And China’s warhead numbers are up, by some estimates even doubling in recent years. The Pentagon says Beijing may now be able to put multiple nukes on a single, newly developed, road-mobile missile.

Indeed, if any country can undertake a so-called “rush to parity” with the US and Russia, it’s China, especially considering its aspirations, wealth and willingness to lavish largesse on its armed forces. Basically, Beijing could become a nuclear peer competitor of Washington and Moscow in the not too distant future, in light of the expected arms cuts under New START.

It doesn’t end there. China’s 2nd Artillery (nuclear forces) is reportedly building 4,800km-plus of tunnels in central China, likely providing Beijing with an enhanced, land-based, second-strike capability. Naturally, China’s ICBMs are thought to be targeted at the US.

Beijing is also diversifying its nuclear capabilities by broadening its force structure into the traditional triad — missiles based not just on land but also on bombers and subs. China’s new class of strategic submarine may already carry its first sea-based ICBMs. And Beijing’s building another “boomer” sub class, too, significantly raising its nuclear-strike mobility and survivability — while lowering detectability.

It’s also adding advanced strategic bombers to the mix. Analysts believe China is developing long-range cruise missiles for these aircraft, which may have both conventional and nuclear warheads.

Making matters more complex is China’s highly secretive stance on its nuclear forces. The People’s Liberation Army has a penchant for strategic denial and deception — and an unwillingness to talk about the issue officially. That’s a real challenge to our intelligence and policy community, leaving lots of unanswered questions about China’s strategic doctrine, capabilities and intent as Beijing bolsters its armed forces — while avoiding arms-control agreements.

As such, senators need to take time not only to consider the other salient questions about the new START — but also to figure China into their deliberations on a new treaty with Russia.

Heritage Foundation senior fellow Peter Brookes is a former deputy US assistant secretary of defense. This article first appeared in the New York Post.