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Arming Taiwan in US interest: analyst
¡¦CHALLENGES¡¦: If the US abandoned Taiwan it
would lose the opportunity to promote democratic reform in China by using it as
an example, defense analyst Rick Fisher said
By William Lowther / Staff Reporter in WASHINGTON
Defense analyst Rick Fisher told a Washington conference
that the US failure to sell weapons to Taiwan is leading both countries ¡§down
the road to tragedy.¡¨
He said that selling the weapons was in the US¡¦ ¡§highest interests,¡¨ because it
would give Taipei the means to deter an attack from China.
Fisher blamed the US State -Department¡¦s refusal to reconsider its ¡§narrow and
strict¡¨ -interpretation of what the Taiwan Relations Act refers to as ¡§defensive
weapons.¡¨
The situation, he argued before the Hudson Institute, was an ¡§ongoing strategic
tragedy.¡¨
Fisher, of the International Assessment and Strategy Center, based his
conclusion on an analysis of China¡¦s new White Paper on national defense.
He said that Beijing would soon be demanding that Taipei enter into substantive
political negotiations leading to a peace treaty, and that there was a ¡§bold
statement¡¨ in the paper that unification was desired and expected.
At the same time, he said, independence forces in Taiwan were identified as a
¡§key enemy.¡¨
For the first time, Fisher said, the ¡§goals and missions¡¨ section of the White
Paper gave high priority to People¡¦s Liberation Army (PLA) efforts to contain
and oppose the forces of Taiwan independence.
¡§When I read an official Chinese document identifying Taiwan independence as a
threat, Taiwan independence as bad, Taiwan -independence as destroying the
sovereignty of the great and glorious Chinese nation, I know they are talking
about democracy,¡¨ he said. ¡§It is not Taiwanese independence they are frightened
of, it is democracy. That¡¦s what threatens the Chinese Communist Party.¡¨
Fisher said the White Paper made clear that the goal of unification had not been
abandoned, but in this age of globalization and interconnectedness, it seemed
¡§almost inconceivable¡¨ that China would risk a war over Taiwan.
Such a war, Fisher said, would require a level of ¡§displacement and disruption¡¨
not seen since the fall of Vietnam. ¡§I would caution that in the interest of
preserving its principle core interest ¡X sustaining its dictatorship ¡X the
Chinese Communist Party has more than proven its willingness to use force,¡¨ he
said.
¡§The goal of taking Taiwan has not been abandoned. The PLA is continuing to
build up its forces in preparation for a conflict over Taiwan, a conflict they
hope will be short. They hope the people in Taiwan will increasingly surrender
their rights and their sovereignties,¡¨ he said.
Fisher said the US should defend Taiwan not just because of the Taiwan Relations
Act, but because of Washington¡¦s own -strategic interests.
Abandoning Taiwan, he said, would lead to ¡§challenges and problems¡¨ not the
least of which would be losing the best opportunity to promote democratic reform
in China by maintaining its example across the Strait.
Taiwan should concentrate its military on deterring an amphibious invasion by
China, Fisher said.
¡§That¡¦s the most profitable way to deter a war. If the PLA can¡¦t put boots on
the ground, can¡¦t put armor on shore, it is not going to start the war to begin
with,¡¨ he said.
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