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Official confirms
¡¥carrier killer¡¦ is being developed
GAME CHANGER: Reports claim the Dong Feng 21D
anti-ship missile has a range of almost 3,000km, nearly twice as long as
previously assessed by the US military
By J. Michael Cole / Staff Reporter
General Chen Bingde speaks during
a meeting with US officials at the Bayi Building in Beijing on Monday.
Photo: Reuters
People¡¦s Liberation Army (PLA) Chief of
General Staff Chen Bingde (³¯¬±¼w) confirmed earlier this week that China was
developing the Dong Feng 21D anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), the first
Chinese official to publicly state that the missile is in development.
His comments came as the English-language China Daily reported that the DF-21D
had a range of 2,700km, well beyond assessments by the Office of Naval
Intelligence last year, which put it at about 1,500km.
The missile, which is capable of hitting moving targets at sea and is seen as a
potential threat to aircraft carrier battle groups, would represent a powerful
deterrent to the US Navy in the Pacific.
However, Chen said the DF-21D, which can be fired from mobile land-based
launchers, was still in the research, development and testing stage, adding that
such high-tech devices were difficult to bring to maturity.
¡§The missile is still undergoing experimental testing and it will be used as a
defensive weapon when it is successfully developed, not an offensive one,¡¨ Chen
told reporters.
Its development ¡§requires funding inputs, advanced technology and high-quality
talented personnel ... these are all fundamental factors constraining its
development,¡¨ Xinhua news agency quoted Chen as saying, in comments that were
ostensibly intended for a domestic audience.
Chen made similar comments during a press conference alongside US Chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen, who is currently visiting China, earlier
this week.
Although Chen¡¦s references to a technological bottleneck could be seen as
counterproductive in terms of presenting the US and other regional powers with a
deterrent, Andrew Erickson, associate professor of strategy at the US Naval War
College, said the public mention by a top official was a sign that the DF-21D
was likely nearing operational capability.
¡§Chen would likely not be mentioning China¡¦s ASBM in public if the PLA were not
confident that it was maturing effectively and already had reached the necessary
development level to begin to credibly shape regional strategic thinking in
Beijing¡¦s favor,¡¨ he wrote on Tuesday.
In an interview with the Asahi Shimbun last year, Admiral Robert Willard, head
of the US Pacific Command, said the DF-21D had reached ¡§initial operational
capability,¡¨ but it would need several more years of testing.
According to experts, the US and Chinese may have different interpretations of
what is meant by operational.
In March, National Security Bureau Director Tsai Der-sheng (½²±o³Ó) told the
legislature that the anti-ship missile was already deployed.
Although the DF-21D¡¦s alleged extended range has yet to be independently
confirmed, Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and
Strategy Center in Washington, said advances in fuel and in missile
aerodynamics, as well as a reduction in payload, made a 2,700km range ¡§quite
plausible.¡¨
Earlier this year, the same company that makes the DF-21D announced it would
field a 4,000km-range intermediate range ballistic missile by 2015. A 2,700km
version of the DF-21D is therefore well within their capabilities, he said.
Asked for comment yesterday, Ministry of National Defense spokesman David Lo
(ù²Ð©M) said Taiwan was aware of the progress being made in the development of the
DF-21D, but he refused to provide specifics on its range or whether it was
already operational.
The missile presents a threat to surface ships in the region and the ministry
will develop countermeasures accordingly, he said.
An essential component to China¡¦s ability to track and hit moving targets at sea
will be the constellation of electronic intelligence (ELINT) satellites ¡X which
can relay positioning information to firing bases ¡X it is believed to be in the
process of building.
Although Beijing claims that a number of satellites deployed in recent years are
for ¡§space scientific experiments,¡¨ defense analysts believe that China¡¦s
¡§scientific¡¨ satellites, many of which are developed by firms closely associated
with the General Armaments Department, can serve military purposes.
One such satellite, the Shijian-11-03, was launched last Wednesday.
According to Jane¡¦s Defence Weekly , ELINT satellites operating in pairs or
greater numbers can conduct ¡§time difference of arrival¡¨ assessment or
geolocation to track targets over large expanses of territory.
Additional reporting by Rich Chang
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