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US should not
interfere in elections
By Liu Shih-chung 劉世忠
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) wrapped up her
recent tour of the US. Largely because of Washington’s high expectations for
Tsai’s cross-strait policy, as well as the fact that she is the first DPP
presidential candidate who can speak fluent English, President Ma Ying-jeou
(馬英九), of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), sent his campaign director, King
Pu-tsung (金溥聰), to Washington to “balance” Tsai’s trip. Facing electoral
maneuvering by both parties, US President Barrack Obama’s administration, on the
surface, tried to remain unbiased, while influencing Taiwan’s elections in a
subtle way.
In terms of “image-building,” “message delivering” and “public diplomacy,” Tsai
achieved her goals. First, she highlighted differences between her and her DPP
predecessor, former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), by recognizing strategic
divergences between Taiwan and Washington during the Chen era and emphasizing
the need to rebuild trust and construct a partnership. She also pledged that
future DPP cross-strait policy would be stable and balanced.
Second, Tsai distinguished her leadership from Ma’s by stressing her ability to
work closer with US allies in the region and determination to take strong action
to defend Taiwan.
Finally, and most importantly, Tsai dismissed the notion of the so-called “1992
consensus” as a fabricated concept and suggested replacing it with a “Taiwan
consensus” arrived at democratically. She also pledged to continue the
agreements reached by the Ma administration and its Chinese counterparts,
provided Taiwan remains able to re--examine their pros and cons.
Nevertheless, Tsai encountered numerous challenges, particularly in her meetings
with officials from the Obama administration and think tank experts. The major
concern for the Washington establishment is the substance of Tsai’s theory of
building up a “Taiwan consensus” if she wins. While Tsai talked of the process
of generating such a consensus, the US expected more detailed elaboration.
Another worry is a fear that Tsai might misjudge Beijing’s willingness to work
with a possible new DPP government. Though it is reasonable for Tsai to refrain
from revealing her hand when Beijing has yet to show its cards, Washington
anticipates a more concrete agenda behind Tsai’s cross-strait policy that could
ensure a continuation of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
That explains why, after Tsai left Washington, a story in the Financial Times
sparked a political fire.
The story quoted an anonymous senior US official, who attended a meeting with
Tsai, as saying that “she left us with distinct doubts about whether she is both
willing and able to continue the stability in cross-strait relations the region
has enjoyed in recent years.”
Despite the US State Department’s immediate clarification that “the ‘official’
mentioned in the article is totally unknown to us and certainly does not speak
for the Obama administration,” the episode demonstrated a divergence in views
from different US agencies when evaluating Tsai’s cross-strait policy. And this
faction tends to use the media to spin the news to influence Taiwan’s elections
indirectly.
Coincidentally, the Obama administration sent US Assistant Secretary of Commerce
Suresh Kumar, the highest US official to visit Taiwan in the past nine years, to
Taipei while Tsai was visiting Washington. The timing of Kumar’s visit was also
politically sensitive given that the presidential election is heating up in
Taiwan.
Although the US administration said it does not take sides in Taiwan’s
elections, such ambiguous and inappropriate interference in Taiwan’s domestic
politics runs the risk of jeopardizing a fair, open and democratic electoral
process in the upcoming elections.
There is no doubt that Washington often plays a pivotal role in influencing
public opinion in Taiwan. Former US president George W. Bush’s administration
used a series of open statements by high-ranking officials, including former US
president George H.W. Bush, to warn the DPP government about the likely dangers
of holding referendums prior to the presidential elections in 2004 and 2008.
Beijing was no doubt behind the US’ verbal and diplomatic pressures on the Chen
administration.
It is therefore not surprising to see some US officials duplicating that
strategy to force Tsai to unveil more details about her cross-strait policy or
to make clear “strategic reassurances” to Washington as the election approaches.
No matter whether it comes from a lack of internal coordination between
different US agencies or if the Obama administration intends to help Ma get
re-elected, such moves sabotage Taiwan’s hard-won democracy. The US should be
neutral and not intervene in Taiwan’s elections, as well as ensuring a
successful transition of power in January were Tsai to win.
Liu Shih-chung is a senior research fellow at the Taipei-based Taiwan Brain
Trust.
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