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PRC must address
Taiwan fears: report
SQUARING THE CIRCLE: Richard Bush said that the
contradiction of improving cross-strait politics and a military balance shifting
in China¡¦s favor was a cause for concern
By William Lowther / Staff Reporter in Washington
In a new report, former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) chairman Richard Bush
says that until China is prepared to address Taiwan¡¦s sense of vulnerability in
a serious manner, the US has ¡§every reason to sell arms to Taiwan¡¨ and Beijing
has no reason to complain.
The report, published this week by the Brookings Institution in Washington, will
add to already -considerable -congressional pressure on the White House to
reconsider its decision not to sell F-16C/D aircraft to Taipei.
¡§If Beijing is serious about its goal of winning the hearts and minds of the
Taiwan[ese] people, it may wish to reassess its own security strategy,¡¨ Bush
said. ¡§It will not win hearts and minds by creating the impression that
intimidation is part of its policy repertoire. That will likely lose hearts and
minds.¡¨
¡§Instead, Beijing should take new steps to reassure Taiwan¡¦s leaders and the
Taiwanese public. Words are not enough, deeds are needed as well,¡¨ he added.
Bush, one of the most respected Taiwan policy experts in Washington, is director
of the Brookings¡¦ Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies.
¡§China¡¦s military modernization is continuing, even though the atmosphere of
cross-strait relations remains positive. As a result, Taiwan is becoming more
vulnerable to PRC [People¡¦s Republic of China] coercion in terms of capabilities
and, perhaps, in intentions,¡¨ Bush said. ¡§US arms sales to Taiwan are as
justified as ever.¡¨
After analyzing the US Department of Defense¡¦s annual report on China¡¦s military
power Bush asked ¡§Why has PLA [People¡¦s Liberation Army] military modernization
continued even though Taiwan independence ¡X the primary motivation for the
buildup ¡X has receded as a serious threat and cross-strait tensions have
declined?¡¨
¡§Is Beijing afraid of a new DPP administration, whether that fear is justified
or not? Or is it because Beijing wants to have the ability not just to deter
what it fears ¡X independence ¡X but compel what it seeks, unification?¡¨ he said.
Quoting the Pentagon report, Bush said the share of modern systems within
China¡¦s inventory of planes, surface ships, submarines and air defense
installations is steadily expanding.
At the same time, Beijing continues to build capabilities to ¡§deter, delay, and
deny¡¨ US intervention in the event of a conflict with Taiwan.
¡§Neither trend is good for Taiwan,¡¨ Bush said
He concluded that the continuing contradiction between the purportedly improving
cross-strait political relationship and a military balance shifting rapidly in
China¡¦s favor should be a cause for concern, both in Taipei and Washington.
A reassessment of Taiwan¡¦s defense strategy may soon be in order, Bush said.
¡§More than anything, Taiwan needs to forge a better consensus on how to meet the
Chinese military challenge,¡¨ he added.
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