20111117 Peaceful cross-strait resolution less likely: US report

Peaceful cross-strait resolution less likely: US report

By William Lowther / Staff reporter in WASHINGTON

A US congressional commission is warning that as China continues to increase its military capabilities while Taiwan’s ability to defend itself is increasingly in question, “the peaceful resolution of the cross-strait situation is less likely.”

In its ninth annual report to the US Congress, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission wrote: “A gross military imbalance could also lead Beijing to resolve the cross-strait problem through the use of military force, possibly resulting in US military involvement.”

The report, scheduled to be released at a press conference yesterday in Washington, notes that cross-strait military relations “lack progress” and a continued standoff “tempers” any positive developments and “potentially endangers US interests in the region.”

Improvements in diplomatic and economic relations have reduced tensions across the Taiwan Strait, but the military balance is tipping more and more “to favor China.”

“Despite attempts to improve its capacity to defend the island against a potential attack from the mainland [sic], Taiwan continues publicly to call for additional US arms sales to augment its defense needs,” the report says.

Overall, the relationship across the Strait is improving, but at a slower pace than in the previous two years, it says.

A key reason for the slower pace is that neither China nor the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) wants to see rapprochement used as a negative issue prior to the January elections, the report says.

The 13 commission members were appointed by Congress “to monitor, investigate and report on the national security implications of the bilateral trade and economic relationship between the US and the PRC [People’s Republic of China].”

According to the report, the Chinese Communist Party relies on economic growth and strict authoritarian rule to maintain control “over a factious and geographically vast nation.”

The report says the commission was told that Ma “has been under pressure from members of his party to prevent the Kuomintang [KMT] from gaining a reputation as excessively pro-China.”

However, the commission said that it had also been told that if Ma wins re-election, Beijing could take a harder line to “secure ... [Chinese] President Hu Jintao’s (胡錦濤) legacy” before Hu steps down in the fall of next year.

The commission quoted Richard Bush, director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, as saying that Beijing has avoided controversial cross-strait issues and that it “is not pushing the agenda” before the Jan. 14 presidential election, because it “understands that it has an interest in keeping President Ma and the KMT in power.”

China may even become lenient on issues such as participation in international organizations to demonstrate the effectiveness of Ma’s cross-strait policies, the commission said.

“Despite a third year of improved economic and diplomatic ties, military tension across the Taiwan Strait remains. Beijing’s public statements reflect an effort to downplay the threat that China poses to the island, but Taipei maintains that China’s military expansion and recent espionage controversies prove otherwise,” the report says. “Taiwan officials continue to emphasize that it is imperative that the island remain militarily competitive with China in order to maintain an equal hand in cross-strait negotiations.”