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2012 ELECTIONS:
Report slams US meddling in the presidential election
By J. Michael Cole / Staff Reporter
President Ma Ying-jeou holds up
the daughter of a volunteer worker as he expresses his appreciation to all
volunteer workers at his re-election campaign office in Taipei City on Sunday.
Photo: CNA
The outcome of Saturday’s presidential
election led to a “heavy sigh of relief” in Beijing and Washington, and the US
did much in the run-up to the elections to boost President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九)
electoral bid while also hedging against the possibility of a victory by the
opposition, a report on the elections said on Sunday.
The possibility of a victory by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on
Saturday led to “very poor decision making” on some occasions within US
President Barack Obama’s administration and a “reprehensible” attack on DPP
presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) via a leak to the Financial Times, at
a time when Tsai was visiting Washington to explain her policy position to US
officials, the US-Taiwan Business Council said in a report on the elections.
Ma defeated Tsai by a margin of about 800,000 votes on Saturday, defying
expectations of a neck-and-neck race.
“With this statement, [Tsai] was greeted with what can only be seen as a slap
across the face,” the report said. “This was not only meddling with the Taiwan
elections, it was also inhospitable as it relates to Dr. Tsai being a guest in
the United States.”
“More troubling still, this was a clear effort to telegraph to the Chinese that
America doesn’t like the DPP either,” it said.
“To marginalize Taiwan’s democracy through ill-planted media stories or
disinterest in the bilateral relationship is to invite the Chinese to continue
to push back American resolve to stand by Taiwan’s democracy and to ensure that
China’s next government doesn’t coerce Taiwan into arrangements that cannot be
supported in Taiwan,” the report said.
The report nevertheless lauded recent developments that seemed to point to
increased willingness on Washington’s part to engage with Taiwan, such as the
upgrade package for Taiwan’s F-16A/B aircraft, the announcement of Taiwan’s
qualification for the Visa Waiver program and a visit to Taiwan by a senior US
official.
Whether those positive developments continue or “slip back into the morass” now
that Ma has been re-elected remains to be seen, the report said.
“[W]e have spent 8 of the past 11 years not talking with Taiwan” on trade
relations since 2001, the report said. “That approach may have worked when
Taiwan had no options in engaging on trade liberalization, but that is not the
case anymore. President Ma’s victory will add further trade momentum and open
more global trade doors to Taiwan.”
Such positioning by the US on trade with Taiwan is therefore increasingly
counterproductive, it said.
On arms sales, the report said that while the Obama administration had approved
US$13 billion in arms sales to Taiwan under Ma, none of those programs —
holdovers from the administration of former US president George W. Bush —
represented a decision on Washington’s part to release new capabilities to
Taiwan.
Whether the US is prepared to release new platforms and the level to which
Beijing will be kept in the loop regarding future arms sales will all be
indicative of future US commitment to ensuring Taiwan’s defense, the report
said.
Turning to China, the report said Ma’s re-election would likely lead to a
low-key approach by Beijing for the next 12 months, as China prepares for a
power transition within the Chinese Communist Party.
Although relations are expected to continue along the same path toward economic
rapprochement, the continued military threat that China poses to Taiwan is
worrying, the report said.
“In China’s mind, Ma owes Beijing for his election victory, and payment will be
due after the Chinese complete their leadership transition,” it said, adding
that it disagreed with the view that Beijing would not lean on Ma because it
understands the constraints he faces domestically.
“President Ma won the election with a solid margin, but it was a far cry from
the 2008 result,” the report said. “This has important implications for Ma’s …
ability to continue to move forward with China.”
Despite being defeated, the DPP won almost 6 million votes and its number of
seats in the legislature increased by 13, while the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)
lost 17. The Taiwan Solidarity Union, a pan-green ally of the DPP, won three
seats.
With the rebalanced legislature, and the KMT now having 64 seats in the
legislature — from 81 in 2008 — while the DPP has 40, the executive will have to
grapple with each bill in the legislature, the report said, adding that there
was no certainty the legislature would agree to efforts by the government to
develop its own version of a “fast-track” authority to facilitate passage of
bilateral and multilateral deals.
“President Ma’s victory in the election means that we will see short-term
stability in Taiwan … The worry is 2013 and beyond,” the report said. “Ma’s job
in his second term is going to be much harder.”
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