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US expert sees
cautious cross-strait policy
CONSOLIDATING GAINS: Former AIT chairman Richard
Bush said that negotiations over cross-strait political and security issues are
not high on Ma Ying-jeou’s agenda
By William Lowther / Staff Reporter in Washington
President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) is “unlikely” to accelerate the process of
reconciliation with China during his second term, former American Institute in
Taiwan chairman Richard Bush told a forum in Washington on Tuesday.
He said that while some in Beijing would welcome negotiations on political and
security issues, such negotiations were not on the agenda.
Bush made the remarks in a keynote speech at a major all-day conference
organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the
Brookings Institution on the implications of Taiwan’s presidential and
legislative elections.
“The two sides made progress in cross-strait relations over the last four years
because they began with a conscious decision to focus on easy issues — mainly
economic issues — and those matters have now been pretty much exhausted,” Bush
said.
“Any new issues that Taipei and Beijing take up will probably be hard. This is
even more true with political and security matters. On these, the two sides have
not yet laid an adequate conceptual foundation,” he said.
“There is not a political foundation in Taiwan for such discussions,” he added.
“The smartest thing for them to do in Ma’s second term is consolidate the gains
of the first term,” he said.
Bush, senior fellow and director of the Center for Northeast Asian Policy
Studies at Brookings, said Taiwan faced a daunting policy agenda and needed a
strategy to ensure that it remained economically competitive in a world of
globalization and technological change.
Taiwan needed to improve its defense strategy and the ability to carry it out
because it could “ never be absolutely certain that Beijing will never use its
increasingly robust military power for some degree of coercion,” he said.
Because the Republic of China was at the core of future political and security
relations with China, Taiwan needed to think in more depth about the content of
sovereignty — “what it means, what is important and what is trivial,” Bush said.
Taiwan needed to reform its political system to make it a better vehicle for
reflecting the public will and making policy choices, he said.
There was a potential for concrete steps in military confidence-building
measures, assuming they were crafted in a way that fostered true mutual
security, he added.
“I do hope that Beijing will be patient and understand that obstacles must be
removed before movement in any new areas can occur,” Bush said.
He said that based on his own analysis, if Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) had been elected, Taiwan would have paid “some
price” for her refusal to accept the so-called “1992 consensus.”
“It wouldn’t have been a terrible situation, it would have been more of a stall.
But to the extent that this was the key question for Taiwan voters, they were
unwilling to take that risk,” he said.
Bush said he expected US-Taiwan relations to continue to improve and that the
two governments would complete work on some important initiatives such as the
visa-waiver program.
“The area that is most compelling, is the economic relationship,” he said.
“It is not in Taiwan’s interest to be excluded from the economic liberalization
that is going on in the Asia-Pacific even as it carries through with Economic
Cooperation Framework Agreement [ECFA] with the People’s Republic of China,” he
said.
“The United States should be a major target of Taiwan’s broader liberalization
effort. This should be a strategic priority for both of our countries and in
pursuing this priority, neither Taipei nor Washington should allow narrow
domestic political interests to get in the way,” he said.
Bush said that Taiwan was important as a litmus test of what kind of great power
China would become.
“If China approaches the Taiwan Strait issue in a way that is flexible,
conceptually creative and responsive to the sensitivities of the people on
Taiwan, that will indicate that China’s revival will be positive,” he said.
“If, on the other hand, China’s approach to Taiwan is conceptually rigid,
unresponsive to popular feeling and laden with pressure tactics, that will send
a different message about the broader trend,” he said.
Bonnie Glaser, a senior fellow in China studies at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, said the DPP would continue to play a critically
important role in Ma’s second term.
Among other important duties, it would be tasked with keeping the ruling party
honest.
She said Taiwan remained a “beacon of democracy to Asia and the world” and
represented a model to which people in China could aspire to.
“Ma’s re-election for a second term will ensure continued stability and
predictability in cross-strait relations, which is critical for American
interests,” she said.
“The US will not have to worry about the reemergence of cross-strait tensions or
the implications of reunification. The US will continue to support Ma’s
pragmatic approach to dealing with Beijing,” Glaser said.
She added there was not likely to be pressure on Ma to move more slowly or
quickly to enhance cross-strait relations.
“The US will leave it up to Taiwan to decide. Washington will expect to be
consulted as a friend and quasi-ally with important interests at stake,” she
said.
“US policy towards Taiwan will likely continue to be guided by the view that
only a secure and confident Taiwan will negotiate with Beijing. US ties with
Taiwan must therefor remain strong,” she said.
“In Ma’s second term, whether [US] President [Barack] Obama is re-elected or
replaced by a Republican, it is likely that US arms sales to Taiwan will
continue. The question is what will be sold,” she said.
“President Ma’s request to purchase F-16C/Ds remains a front burner issue,” she
added.
Moderators for the conference’s three panels were Edward McCord, director of the
Taiwan education and research program at the George Washington University; Nancy
Bernkopf Tucker, professor of history at Georgetown University; and Cynthia
Watson, professor of strategy at the National War College.
Among the panelists were Apple Daily columnist Antonio Chiang (江春男); Academia
Sinica research fellow Chu Yun-han (朱雲漢) and associate research fellow David
Huang (黃偉峰); and Carnegie Endowment vice president of studies Douglas Paal.
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