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No ¡¥status quo¡¦ for
Taiwan
So the votes have been counted and President Ma Ying-jeou (°¨^¤E) has been
re-elected. For many reasons this result should have been expected, regardless
of which part one supports.
Over the past 25 years, a political revolution has occurred in Taiwan, with the
old guard ¡X the pan-blue coalition ¡X representing Chinese identity and
reunification, while the new guard ¡X the pan-green coalition ¡X fighting for
Taiwanese identity and independence.
After a half-century of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) rule, the Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) won the presidency in 2000 followed by a significant
number of seats in the legislature. During the decade that followed, the greens
managed to promote Taiwanese identity, while, arguably, doing very little to set
the stage for independence.
The successful promotion of Taiwanese identity is -palpable, both within Taiwan
and abroad, and this should not be a surprise. Taiwanese identity is distinct
from Chinese identity as a result of China¡¦s communist system.
Taiwan represents multiparty democracy, the Hoklo people, language and culture,
and a more developed sense of right and wrong. The point is that more people use
the term ¡§Taiwanese¡¨ today than 10 or 20 years ago because that term means
something different to ¡§Chinese.¡¨
The more interesting and challenging question is how successful has the campaign
for Taiwanese independence been over the past two decades.
The issue of Taiwanese independence goes far beyond the desire of Taiwanese for
self-determination because, since 1971 (and perhaps as early as 1949), Taiwan¡¦s
future has rested not only in the hands of Taiwanese, but also other countries,
such as the US and China. The reason for this is simple ¡X the Chinese -Communist
Party won the Chinese civil war and the KMT survived and formed a state in
Taiwan only as a result of US intervention.
During the history of modern Taiwan, including during the DPP¡¦s time in power,
more Taiwanese have supported the ¡¥status quo¡¦ than Taiwanese independence.
Since the late 1970s, China has been firing on all cylinders, increasing its
geopolitical influence in a highly deliberate way backed by one of the most
amazing economic development stories in the history of the world. Its GDP has
now surpassed such global powerhouses as Japan, Germany, France and the UK.
During the same period, the US ran up an unprecedented fiscal deficit (therefore
becoming reliant on China to purchase US Treasury bonds), became embroiled in
multiple conflicts (or more accurately, wars) throughout the world (thereby
straining its military) and allowed for one of the largest financial bubbles in
history to be created and then burst (leading to a major loss of international
credibility in US financial markets and its political system).
In a situation like this, maintaining the ¡§status quo¡¨ does not mean there will
be no change. It means Taiwanese independence is less likely and eventually, if
these forces continue to expand and establish a new equilibrium, impossible. The
pan-green coalition has succeeded in promoting Taiwanese identity, but it failed
to sway the hearts and minds of Taiwanese toward seeking independence. In this
regard, standing still is moving backward.
The US is now in recovery mode, while China is wrestling to control its own
massive bubbles and potential social unrest. It is time for Taiwanese to decide
whether Taiwanese identity is enough or if independence is more valuable than
the current ¡§status quo.¡¨
Tai Hsia
San Francisco,
California
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