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Xi visit unlikely to
make waves: analysts
MEETING: Analysts say a visit to the US by
China’s likely next president will probably accomplish little and is more about
public relations, given Ma Ying-jeou’s re-election
By William Lowther / Staff Reporter in Washington
It is unlikely that next week’s visit to Washington by Chinese Vice President Xi
Jinping (習近平), the likely successor to Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) as Chinese president and
secretary-general of the Chinese Communist Party, will have any significant
impact on Taiwan relations, an academic says.
“I have no high expectations for the visit,” Walter Lohman, director of the
Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation, told a roundtable briefing on
Thursday.
He said that it was largely a public relations visit for Xi to prove that he was
prepared for leadership, could handle the US and could “hold up well” next to US
President Barack Obama on the international stage.
“It is an opportunity for him to get an official relationship going, that’s what
he is here for,” Lohman said.
However, he said things would have been very different if Democratic Progressive
Party (DPP) chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) had won last month’s presidential
election.
Lohman said that the US taking a position on the Taiwanese elections — despite
strong denials from the White House that it had favored President Ma Ying-jeou
(馬英九) — could be seen as a “first victory” for Xi’s visit.
Lohman said that of all developments over the past six months, Ma’s re-election
would have the greatest impact on the visit.
“Imagine if the DPP had won the elections, this would be what this visit was all
about — the Chinese talking to the Americans about getting your guys in control
there and us offering assurances,” he said.
“It would have been a much different visit if Tsai had won. This visit is part
of the overall cooperative atmosphere that the US wants to promote and that
would have been undermined if Tsai had won,” he said.
There could be no question, Lohman said, that both China and the US preferred
Ma.
As it is, there will be a major effort to show that the US-China relationship is
in good shape, Lohman said.
However, in truth, he said, the relationship was not good, because Beijing and
Washington had many different interests.
“Let us not confuse atmospherics — handshakes and smiles and meetings and
dialogue — for a genuinely good relationship,” Lohman added.
Derek Scissors, a research fellow in Asia economic policy at Heritage, said it
was quite likely that nothing much was going to happen during the visit.
“This doesn’t mean it is trivial. It’s just not going to accomplish very much,”
he said.
Asked which Taiwan issues would be raised, Lohman said: “The election turned out
the way both sides wanted it to turn out. Both sides will use their standard
talking points on arms sales to Taiwan.”
“Had the election turned out differently, the conversation could have been more
contentious, and could have gone back and forth, but having said that, if we do
make another arms sale, if we make good on the F-16C/Ds for example, the Chinese
will protest just as vociferously as they would have otherwise,” he said.
At another briefing on Xi’s visit held on Thursday by the Center for Strategic
and International Studies, senior fellow Bonnie Glaser said that following Ma’s
re-election there was “great confidence” in Beijing that it would continue to
manage its relationship with Taiwan well.
She added that while Beijing officials remained concerned about US arms sales,
they were not as “panicked” about the future of the cross-strait relationship as
they would have been if the election had gone the other way.
“Undoubtedly Xi Jinping will raise Taiwan. He will want to convey his concerns
about US policies — arms sales being one of them — and his determination to
reunify the country. That is something he has to do for his domestic audience
back home,” Glaser said.
She added that there was not much the US side could say that it had not said in
the past on this issue.
However, Glaser raised one new possibility.
“Perhaps there will be a bit of urging that China begin to draw down its forces
opposite Taiwan,” she said.
“I would expect that to be a fairly short conversation, however, given the
confidence that both sides have in Washington and Beijing that the cross-strait
relationship is going to remain relatively stable over the next several years,”
Glaser said.
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