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EDITORIAL : Missile
test has implications
The ongoing situation with North Korea is quite serious and could rapidly spiral
out of control unless all the governments involved take careful steps to make
sure they do not miscalculate.
Most military analysts, as well as the US and Japan, see Pyongyang¡¦s planned
launch of a so-called satellite rocket as a thinly veiled test of the type of
long-range missile that could possibly deliver a nuclear warhead to the
continental US.
Any number of things can go wrong with this test. After the rocket blasts off,
it will fly over South Korean, Japanese, Taiwanese and then Philippine airspace.
If at any stage of its flight the missile loses power, tonnes of metal could
come crashing to the ground, endangering anything and everything below.
Philippine officials have already announced restrictions on sea lanes and they
plan to ground air traffic during the test to avoid any possibility of a mishap.
Taiwan, Japan and South Korea would be advised to take precautions as well.
On top of the possibility of an accident, there is the very real possibility of
an escalation. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has given the Japanese
Ministry of Defense authority to shoot the North Korean rocket down if it
threatens Japanese airspace. This could easily be accomplished over Okinawa,
where the rocket is scheduled to do a fly-by and where both Japan and the US
have plenty of anti-missile rockets deployed.
Although Japan is fully within its rights to shoot down the missile ¡X Japan has
said in the past that it would do so if North Korea were to ever shoot a rocket
over its territory again ¡X it would set a dangerous precedent. Up to now, the
military situation in Northeast Asia, with the exception of occasional
skirmishes between North and South Korea, has been characterized primarily by
saber rattling. If Japan shoots a North Korean missile down, it can no longer be
seen as saber rattling, but rather open hostility.
There is plenty of evidence surfacing as well that North Korea is planning
another nuclear test shortly after the rocket launch. If Japan shoots down its
missile, North Korea¡¦s newly minted leader, Kim Jong-un, will be under more
pressure to show his resolve with a nuclear test.
The situation has China rattled in the same way that it has increased tension in
the rest of the region. The last thing Chinese authorities want right now while
they are in the midst of an internal power struggle ahead of the expected
announcement of a leadership change is a regional military confrontation that
they must get involved in. So we can expect them to do their best to rein North
Korea in, but in all actuality, Beijing has about as much control over Pyongyang
as Washington has over Jerusalem.
The situation is slippery and anything that affects the military balance in
Northeast Asia could have an impact on Taiwan and the cross-strait military
balance. The two most likely countries to come to Taiwan¡¦s aid in a cross-strait
military contingency could easily get involved in a military confrontation of
their own with North Korea if everything were to spiral out of control, leaving
Taiwan high and dry.
Although Taiwanese military authorities appear calm on the surface, you can bet
they will be paying close attention to North Korea¡¦s missile test.
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