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Trying to discern the
truth in China
By Wang Dan 王丹
Ever since Chongqing Chinese Communist Party (CCP) secretary Bo Xilai (薄熙來) was
sacked, rumors have spread like wildfire about the political situation in China.
The rumor that has received the most attention is the one about Chinese Prime
Minister Wen Jiabao (溫家寶) proposing restitution for the victims of the 1989
Tiananmen Square Massacre during a speech he made to the party’s politburo.
In what seemed like an attempt to confirm these rumors, Chinese Internet
censorship was momentarily relaxed. For example, users of the Chinese Web site
Baidu (百度) were able to search for pictures of the massacre. Also, many messages
posted on the memorial Web site for former Chinese premier Zhao Ziyang (趙紫陽),
who was placed under house arrest for 15 years following the massacre, were
neither disallowed nor deleted.
Thus, speculation about the possibility of restitution for the victims of the
massacre is at an all-time high and people linked to the massacre who are
outside of China, myself included, have had the media constantly asking them
questions.
The first thing I would to reflect on is what Bo’s resignation might mean for
internal rifts within the CCP. However, the focus of these rifts most likely
center on the appropriateness of Bo’s extreme-leftist approaches, reminiscent of
the Cultural Revolution, such as his insistence on people singing former Chinese
leader Mao Zedong (毛澤東)-era songs. Just what does this have to do with the issue
of the massacre? Not a single appropriate explanation has been offered yet as to
the logic of this whole issue, or about the rumors being spread outside of
China. This is quite unusual.
Second, we should pay attention to the temporary relaxation of Internet
censorship. It would be hard to believe the timing of this was merely
coincidental. Obviously, it was planned and implemented by certain individuals
who had both the intent and the power to carry it through.
Who are these people and what are their goals? Although we cannot be sure of the
answers to these questions, we can assume these recent rumors are a form of
political manipulation.
Finally, we should look at what sort of influence these rumors, which caused
such a stir abroad, will have on politics within China. We have seen that Wen
was very much involved in the recent internal power struggle within the CCP
caused by Bo’s dismissal. It is not hard to imagine the deeply ingrained
distaste the conservative faction within the CCP has for him.
Wen has already come up against a lot of resistance trying to persuade the CCP
to resolve the Bo issue. If, at this time, he proposes other, more controversial
issues, like getting restitution for the massacre victims, he will be generating
even more pressure. Unless Wen has already made up his mind go all out and play
a role similar to former Russian president Boris Yeltsin, I really do not
believe he will rush to take care of the Tiananmen issue before he has taken
care of the Bo problem.
Also, the talk that these rumors have caused overseas are in fact bad for Wen:
It will make different political factions within the CCP feel that his actions
are too much, too soon and that they risk causing instability.
As a result, not long after the rumors surfaced, the CCP’s propaganda department
hit back hard. They not only severely punished the online media outlets that
spread these rumors, but the People’s Daily also ran a series of editorials on
the subject of stability for a few days in a row.
We know that Wen already proposed political reform a number of times and
“stability” is obviously something that does not fit within the idea of
political reform.
With the official media emphasizing how important stability is, it is plain to
see how conservative factions within the CCP won a round and the rumors about
massacre victim restitution actually provided an excuse for this type of
comeback.
I believe the recent rumors about restitution for the victims of the massacre
could very well be talk aimed overseas by conservative factions within the CCP
and those who are against Wen. Their goal is simple: They want to spread rumors
and destabilize the political situation in such a way that Wen will end up
taking the blame.
If these methods do not succeed in getting Wen out of office, at least they can
stop him from proposing political reform. In this respect, the plot has actually
succeeded.
Of course, given the under-handed political deals the CCP is engaged in, we can
never be totally sure of the truth.
The reason I have expressed my assumptions is because I hope they can help
people look at this affair from a different angle. I also hope that people treat
these rumors about restitution for the victims of the massacre carefully and not
be overly optimistic about them.
Wang Dan is a visiting assistant professor in the College of Humanities and
Social Sciences at National Tsing Hua University.
Translated by Drew Cameron
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