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EDITORIAL: It’s make
or break on the F-16s
Last week’s surprise announcement by US President Barack Obama’s administration
that it would give “serious consideration” to the possibility of selling F-16C/D
combat aircraft to Taiwan was cause for cautious optimism. However, while it may
be welcome in defense circles, the timing could give President Ma Ying-jeou
(馬英九) a major headache as his inauguration day approaches.
Two administrations — that of former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and Ma’s —
have since 2006 made repeated, yet unsuccessful, attempts to acquire 66 of the
much-needed F-16C/Ds to bring back some balance in air power in the Taiwan
Strait. Through a bureaucratic sleight of hand, the White House, weary of
complicating its relationship with Beijing, managed to avoid having to make a
decision by pretending that Taipei had yet to submit a Letter of Request (LoR)
for the aircraft. The reality is that officials in the administrations of both
former US president George W. Bush and Obama made it impossible for Taiwan to
submit an LoR.
This diplomatic charade made it feasible for Ma, who since 2008 has attempted to
avoid angering Beijing — as the F-16 sale certainly would — to make repeated
public requests for the aircraft, while knowing that such calls were unlikely to
bring any change in the “status quo.”
However, the context in which those calls are being made appears to have
changed, which is the result of several factors, from the US having entered
another electoral season to Washington’s decision to focus more on Asia amid its
so-called “pivot.”
Obama, who is seeking re-election, has often been accused of being soft on
China. Allowing the long-delayed sale of F-16s to Taipei, which in and of itself
would be insufficient to ensure Taiwan can maintain air superiority against
China, could be a means for him to silence his detractors while creating jobs in
Texas, an important state in the election. As former US deputy secretary of
defense Paul Wolfowitz has told this paper, this would not be the first time
that a major arms sale to Taiwan derived, if only partly, from a US presidential
election. The initial F-16A/Bs acquired by Taiwan in the early 1990s were, in
his opinion, such a case.
This new context puts Ma in a quandary. While the Ministry of National Defense
maintains it is keen on procuring the F-16C/Ds (with plans being floated by at
least one representative in Washington to request just 44 aircraft), political
considerations at the top could add some friction.
Ma will be watched closely by Beijing during his inauguration on May 20, and his
second term will likely be marked by intensifying pressure by the Chinese
Communist Party to enter political negotiations. Starting his second term by
acquiring the F-16s — a “red line” that ought not to be crossed, Beijing has
said — might appear an ominous start for Ma.
Conversely, delaying the submission of an LoR, or dismissing this opportunity
altogether for cost or political considerations, could cost Ma dearly
domestically, as doing so would be a huge loss of face for a president who
claims he remains committed to Taiwan’s security and sovereignty. Not seizing
the opportunity to finally obtain the F-16s, after years of claiming that he
wanted them, would make Ma’s pleas sound like they were fraudulent all along.
The door has been opened a crack; let us see whether Ma, who has painted himself
into a corner on this issue, as he has on many others, will dare to walk in.
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