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The Liberty Times
Editorial: Ma’s number-crunching games
On May 20, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) will be sworn in for a second term in
office, which presents us with an excellent opportunity to ask just what he has
achieved over the past four years. According to Ma’s own assessment, the two
things he is most proud of are fostering the most peaceful cross-strait
relations in 60 years and inking the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA)
with China.
However, just as Ma’s first term in office is about to come to an end, the
Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics announced that it is
cutting its economic growth projection for this year to 3.3 percent and the
Consumer Price Index is forecast to rise by 1.94 percent over the same period,
though it could yet rise beyond 2 percent. These data offer a stark contrast to
all the promises and guarantees Ma and Vice President Vincent Siew (蕭萬長) made in
2008. A comparison of what they said and what has actually happened would seem
to confirm that for some people, politics is merely a game of smoke and mirrors.
When Ma says cross-strait relations are at their most peaceful in 60 years, he
is of course claiming to have done a better job than former presidents Chiang
Kai-shek (蔣介石) and his son Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國), Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) and Chen
Shui-bian (陳水扁). Just as Ma’s second term is about to start, the vast majority
of people probably hope the nation will move forward and that government
administration will not further deteriorate. We should therefore compare things
objectively using measurements relevant to daily life to see what Ma achieved
during his first term in office.
First, let us look at unemployment. During his 10 years in office, Chiang
Ching-kuo adopted a “three noes” policy toward China and between 1978 and 1988,
the unemployment rate remained below 3 percent, peaking at 2.91 percent in 1985.
It is a well-known fact that the backdrop to this period was the 1973 oil crisis
and its negative impact on international economic growth. Lee adopted the “no
haste, be patient” policy toward China, and during his 12 years in office, from
1988 to 2000, the unemployment rate hovered between 1 percent and 2 percent,
apart from 1999, when it peaked at 2.92 percent.
During the first six of his eight years in office, Chen adopted an “active
opening, effective management” policy toward China and the unemployment rate
started to rise, peaking at 5.17 percent in 2002. For the remainder of his two
terms in office, unemployment was under 4 percent. In 2006, Chen realized that
the nation needed to avoid over-reliance on China, and that was when his
administration adopted the “active management, effective opening” policy, as a
result of which unemployment began to fall, reaching 3.91 percent in 2007.
What about Ma? After coming to power in May 2008, Ma put an end to what he
characterized as harmful “isolationism” and embraced a policy of comprehensive
opening up to China. As a result, unemployment hit a record high of 5.85 percent
in 2009. In 2010, unemployment was still 5.21 percent, the second-highest ever.
Last year, it was 4.39 percent and the average for January to March this year
was 4.2 percent. Every year of Ma’s term in office, unemployment has been higher
than when Chen’s second term ended.
However, if we are talking about creating unemployment, then, Ma is clearly the
best president ever, though his success in this regard has caused Taiwanese more
pain than joy.
Ma once served as Chiang Ching-kuo’s English-language secretary, but based on
Ma’s logic, Chiang’s “three noes” policy was the epitome of isolationism.
Further, Chiang Ching-kuo once remarked that the details of people’s lives is
what matters most to the government. Over the past four years, Ma has not only
undermined employment, his administration has also borrowed money and increased
debt at an unprecedented rate.
Policy implementation in modern states focuses on people and Ma has failed on a
number of issues that impact people directly: In addition to unemployment, he
has also set records when it comes to income statistics. Taiwanese average
earnings are now only NT$34,000 per month, a return to the level of 14 years
ago. The resulting low pay means that many skilled individuals have chosen to
head overseas in search of work.
The recent remarks made by Singaporean Deputy Prime Minister Tharman
Shanmugaratnam about how Singapore cannot afford to become another Taiwan were
painful and embarrassing.
Taiwan is not on the road to a golden decade as Ma appears to believe; it is
heading nowhere fast, a fate made inevitable by the factor-price equalization
effect. If rather than create links to other more advanced economies, the
Taiwanese economy blindly chases cheaper production in China, the skill level of
Taiwan’s workforce will fall. When the Taiwanese and Chinese workforces are at
the same level, wages in Taiwan will inevitably be pulled down by the low wages
in China.
In addition, as more Taiwanese companies have relocated to China, unemployment
in Taiwan has increased. Because of the transfer of the three main factors of
production — skilled workers, technology and capital — technology will not
improve in Taiwan and wages are unlikely to rise.
In recent years, many observers have asked why the nation has been unable to
emulate South Korea. The central problem is that the Ma administration has
focused on establishing links to China to the exclusion of a more global focus,
and this has marginalized Taiwan.
Is this really how we want to continue for the next four years? Numbers speak
louder than words. Ma’s policies are not benefiting the public; they have only
helped a handful of capitalists who do business in China. Everyone who has
remained in Taiwan and is struggling to make a living is a victim of Ma’s failed
policies.
A leader who wins the hearts of the people will prosper, but one who loses the
hearts of the people will fail. This is an adage all politicians need to bear in
mind.
Translated by Drew Cameron
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