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The murky waters of
the South China Sea
By Chen Hsin-chih ³¯ªY¤§
For the best part of a month China and the Philippines have been embroiled in a
face-off over control of the Scarborough Shoal (¶À©¥®q) in the South China Sea and
yet ASEAN, and its member states, have remained curiously silent on the mounting
tensions in the archipelago. East Asia is moving into a new period: A Sino-US
pact.
In the past ASEAN tried to play a more active role in resolving the South China
Sea problem within frameworks such as the ASEAN Regional Forum and by recruiting
major naval powers such as the US and Japan in an attempt to curb China¡¦s
regional sovereignty claims.
In 2002 ASEAN and China announced the non-legally binding Declaration on the
Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, in which it was agreed that any
territorial disputes were to be resolved in a peaceful manner, through amicable
talks and negotiations. There were also attempts to reach a legally binding
¡§South China Sea code of conduct¡¨ with China, although this was never drafted.
This year it is Cambodia¡¦s turn to be ASEAN chair and things have gone China¡¦s
way. In its capacity as host nation, Cambodia decides the agenda of the ASEAN
meetings and it has refused to entertain any ideas not in China¡¦s interests.
This has also confounded problem-solving efforts by nations like the US and
Japan.
The Philippines attempted to curb China¡¦s schemes by raising proposals at the
ASEAN foreign ministers¡¦ meeting last month, but these were doomed to failure
following Chinese President Hu Jintao¡¦s (JÀAÀÜ) visit to Cambodia in March this
year.
The US remains wary of China, but the two governments seem to have reached an
agreement avoiding direct military conflict as a result of misunderstandings.
During the recent ¡§2-Plus-2¡¨ foreign and national defense ministerial meeting
between the US and the Philippines, the US ruled out acting as a mediator on
behalf of the Philippines in the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea
over the Scarborough Shoal issue. The US emphasized that sovereignty conflicts
in the South China Sea should be dealt with via peaceful, collaborative,
multilateral and diplomatic means and made it crystal clear that it does not
support any rash actions by the Philippines on this issue.
Earlier this month the US and China held strategic and economic talks in which
the two agreed to avoid tensions over hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region.
Neither will they tolerate the actions of any of their allies within their
spheres of influence affecting relations between them. Thus, China complied with
US wishes in condemning North Korea¡¦s recent failed rocket launch, calling it a
¡§serious violation¡¨ of UN resolutions, and the US likewise has obliged by
remaining on the sidelines of the Scarborough Shoal spat, simply observing,
while the Philippines stands up to its powerful neighbor. Clearly, then, the US
and China have agreed to restrain rash behavior from their respective allies in
the region.
This understanding between the US and China aimed at maintaining security in the
Asia-Pacific region has already seriously constricted the options of smaller
nations within the region, leaving them with less room for maneuver. It has also
weakened the ability of regional organizations, such as ASEAN, that would like
to have more control over how these South China Sea sovereignty disputes unfold.
Over the course of the next month ASEAN may well struggle to get its voice heard
as decisions are taken regarding the region¡¦s economic and trade integration and
its integrated disaster response.
Chen Hsin-chih is a professor of political science at National Cheng Kung
University.
Translated by Paul Cooper
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