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EDITORIAL: In a
political maze
Here is a snapshot of things to come: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
Chairman Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) visits China in an unofficial capacity, going to a
forum on cross-strait ties — in some first-tier city — attended by Chinese
officials who have also shed their official capacity and pose as private
individuals.
The groundwork for such a move is now being laid by DPP Legislator Hsiao Bi-khim
(蕭美琴), who is in Shanghai on private business — a seminar on cross-strait
relations. New Taipei City (新北市) DPP office director Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政) went to
Kunming to intend a similar symposium in March. At the time, Lo was the DPP
spokesperson, and he was also the first standing DPP official to travel to
China.
Former DPP chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has said she would be willing to go to
China, and she would most likely be the best person to lay the groundwork for an
incumbent chairperson such as Su to make a trip, all, of course, unofficially.
Why this sudden surge of interest among DPP officials in cross-strait forums
held in China?
Most people see the roots of this sudden political shift in the DPP’s loss in
the January presidential election, and its resultant belief that if the party
were to re-examine its attitude toward China, even come up with some new
conciliatory policies, it could possibly fare better in the next election.
But is this such a wise move?
The DPP’s support base is made up of Hoklo-speaking (commonly known as
Taiwanese) Taiwanese who trace their roots to China’s Fujian Province more than
400 years ago. The Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) support base is made up of
so-called “provincial outsiders” or “Mainlanders,” the millions of people who
fled China for Taiwan after the KMT’s defeat in the Chinese Civil War. These two
groups will most likely continue to vote for their respective political block no
matter what either party does, or what changes in history sweep over the world.
In other words, going to China will not exactly help the DPP sway pan-blue
voters to cast ballots for the opposition, because they are simply on the wrong
side of an intractable divide.
Tsai could not have done a better job in her election campaign, and Ma could not
have done a worse job in his past four years; yet he is still president, and
Tsai is now contemplating a trip to China.
The support base of the DPP has not changed. It is still wary of being swept
away by Chinese hegemony and its manufacturers being made irrelevant by cheap
Chinese goods. In the desire to get back into office, the DPP should be careful
not to forget its base. It should not be swayed by the idea that trips across
the Taiwan Strait or finding some kind of new agreement with the Chinese is the
way back into power.
There is nothing wrong with trying to understand China, or trying to come up
with a more win-win approach to Taiwan’s cross-strait neighbor. However, in the
end, the political divides in Taiwan are too strong to sweep away with a few
trips and a few promises. The DPP must be careful not to lose its way in China.
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