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Political talks lead
to loss of standing
By Lai I-chung 賴怡忠
The recent Cabinet reshuffle concentrated on cross-strait relations and national
security. The public wanted new faces in financial and economic positions, but
the nominees all lack relevant professional backgrounds, especially those
appointed as the new Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) chairman, the Straits
Exchange Foundation (SEF) chairman and Taiwan’s representative to the US. The
government defended these appointments, saying they will be more capable of
communicating President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) message. Does that mean their
predecessors were not? What political agenda does Ma have here?
Over the next six months Northeast Asia’s political climate is likely to change.
As things stand, US President Barack Obama could be re-elected, South Korean
President Lee Myung-bak will leave office and the Democratic Party of Japan
could lose its majority in the House of Representatives.
While Northeast Asian politics are in a transitional stage, relations between
Taiwan, China and the US are more predictable.
Even if Obama gets re-elected, it is widely acknowledged that US Secretary of
State Hillary Rodham Clinton is unlikely to continue in her post. This means
that the ascendancy of the US Department of State’s pan-Asian faction — friendly
to Taiwan, Japan and the rest of Asia — over the pro-China faction within the
White House’s National Security Council will probably end. It is likely US
policy will return to being China-centric as it was when Obama first took
office. This faction was behind Washington’s support of cross-strait political
talks during the two US-China summits.
It is commonly believed that after the 18th National Congress Chinese Vice
President Xi Jinping (習近平), and Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang (李克強) will
follow a more consensus-based approach, but experience shows new Chinese leaders
only gain total control after Chinese Commuist Party Central Committee Plenary
Sessions are held, and Xi’s Taiwan policy will retain Chinese President Hu
Jintao’s (胡錦濤) hallmarks until the next rounds are finished in 2014.
To now send the new representative to the US, King Pu-tsung (金溥聰) — a close aide
of Ma who said last year that Ma, if reelected, could sign a peace accord with
China — is sure to arouse suspicion that Ma intends to work with pro-China Obama
officials to capitalize on China’s internal restructuring in order to commence
cross-strait talks.
Since his re-election, Ma has been preparing the way for initiating these
political talks, through characterizing the cross-strait relationship as “one
country, two areas” (一國兩區) and his “East China Sea peace initiative,” which
included political talks between Beijing and Taipei. He has also mooted possible
topics for discussion and established mechanisms for the talks. To nominate a
yes-man to lead the MAC and send the person most familiar with the logic of Ma’s
strategy to the US as Taiwan’s representative suggests that Ma has one
objective: to commence cross-strait political negotiations and sign a
“cross-strait peace accord” with China. Aware he may become a lame duck in late
2014, he is trying to speed the process up.
Ma may believe he has carte blanche to commence these political talks if he has
the US’ blessing. However, as he defines Taiwan as an area of China, Taiwan’s
international sovereignty will evaporate the minute he agrees to talks. Any
disagreement would gift China the excuse to abandon cross-strait peace, as
happened in 2000 between Israel and Palestine. More importantly, holding such
negotiations without a “Taiwan consensus” or legislative oversight, especially
given the recent agenda-driven nominations, is worrying.
Lai I-chung is an executive committee member of Taiwan Thinktank.
Translated by Drew Cameron
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