“Appeasement does not work”退步妥協政策無用論,重新興起,台灣要內部團結與台灣人身份認同中站起來,則是不爭的生存法則。冒然統一的後果,是一種被侵蝕的戰爭,突然獨立的結果,是激烈的火拼,於雙方政體不同制的時刻,兩岸領袖若真要為同胞求活,就必須彼此尊重了。附英文稿做為參考。
Overcoming the Stalemate on the Korean
Peninsula
2002.05.08 Balbina Hwang
In the days immediately following President Bush's now famous "axis of evil" speech, I fielded dozens of calls from people
who were horrified that the President had identified North Korea as an evil regime.
Critics both here and abroad conjured up dire visions of doom: U.S. bombs raining down on Pyongyang, North Korean tanks
crossing the demilitarized zone into South Korea, and blood baths on the peninsula.
But now, three months later, what do we see? We actually see the initial signs of genuine progress in relations between the United
States and North Korea and between the Republic of Korea (ROK, South Korea) and North Korea. These are the first signs since North
Korea halted the process, well before President Bush was elected to office..
Some of these signs of progress include:
●North Korea's agreeing to meet with the Japanese Red Cross and even talking about normalization of ties;
●Reunions of separated family members;
●Ministerial-level talks between North and South;
●Delegations from KEDO (the Korea Energy Development Organization, responsible for monitoring progress of the light-water nuclear reactors being built in the North); and
●Possible resumption of talks between the United States and North Korea
But what do these signs of change mean? Are they truly significant, marking a watershed shift in North Korea's relations with the U.S. and
the ROK? Or, are they just ephemeral and random moments that have no lasting significance for these relations?
I believe that these recent developments are significant, although I remain cautious in my optimism. But the real significance of North
Korean signals is that they are a direct result of the so-called hard-line
stance by the Bush Administration. I label it "so-called" because, in
fact, the policy is not hard-line at all, but simply realistic.
U.S. OBJECTIVES TOWARD NORTH KOREA
The Bush Administration, in my view, has two main objectives vis-a-vis North Korea.
The first objective is to establish a new standard by which North Korea would no longer be allowed to manipulate the international
community through extortion. Rather, this policy would force North Korea to realize that it must play by the rules of the international
community, and not the other way around.
What does this mean?
It means that the burden of action and change is now on North
Korea to prove to the outside world that it would accept the most basic principles recognized by all civilized societies:
These principles include:
●Not resorting to the use of force or the threat to use force;
●Abandoning terrorism as a tool of foreign policy;
●Not proliferating weapons of mass destruction (WMD);
●Abiding by the most basic normative principles of the international community, including the provision of basic human rights, democracy, and an open economy.
In other words, the U.S. policy is no longer about stopping North Korea's bad behavior temporarily, through bribes, but by
forcing fundamental changes in its thinking and future actions.
The second objective of the Bush policy, I believe, is to let the ROK take the lead in the process toward peace and reconciliation on
the Korean peninsula, including, ultimately, peaceful unification.
The world has learned from the long, frustrating years of Middle East peace process that interim solutions do not work. What is needed
is a comprehensive peace process and solution that results in a permanent peace between the two parties most directly involved, and
with the most to gain. In the case of Korea, this means that the U.S.
should not be the one to dictate to South Korea what the Koreans want or need. South Koreans, with their own vibrant democracy, are perfectly
capable of forming their own goals and visions for the peninsula.
What this means is that the U.S. and ROK, as allies and friends, ought to share the principles behind their respective policies toward the
North. But this does not necessarily mean that they must share exactly the same goals and means of achieving them.
Of course, we do share the fundamental long-term goals of peace and stability. The immediate prioritization of goals may differ, however.
For example, for the U.S., these goals are ending North Korea's terrorist
habits and WMD proliferation.
In the weeks following the "axis of evil" speech, it was a shock
for me to see more unity between North and South Korea than at almost any other moment in the past 50 years. I actually heard South
Koreans agreeing with the North Korean condemnation of President
Bush's "axis of evil" statement. I even heard a South Korean National Assemblyman call President Bush "evil."
But much of this discontent or anger toward Americans was really
a function of misperception or misunderstanding on the part of South Koreans (and Americans) about who really caused the rupture in
North-South dialogue.
If one looks carefully at the calendar of events in late 2000 and 2001, it is clear that the North was responsible. And it is clear from
recent overtures being made by North Korea that the North can be the only one to restart the reconciliation process.
As the presidential campaigns heat up in South Korea, this is an opportunity for South Koreans to have meaningful dialogue and debate
over what their country's goals and policies should be towards the North.
Some observe this election campaign marks the time that Korean politics is finally issue-driven rather than candidate-driven, but I
disagree. While it is true that there does seem to be a clearer contrast
between Roh Moo Hyun and Lee Hoi Chang, I believe that ultimately
the basis for this distinction is still personality-driven. Roh has such
grass-roots popularity because he symbolizes the anti-establishment; the establishment is something that younger Koreans chafe at but are
still unable to fully deny.
I am now about to say something that is probably controversial. I do not believe that ultimately it matters much who wins the election
in December, as far as it pertains to North Korea policy. While it is worrisome to me that Roh has called for some radical policies, such
as the abolishment of national security laws, for example, or the nationalization of newspapers, I do not think he will be able to
implement such policies. After all, Kim Dae Jung, and even Kim
Young Sam before him, similarly called for abolishment of national security laws.
Ultimately, the South Korean public will desire a moderate
policy toward North Korea and the United States, and this moderate sentiment will rein in the "hawkish" views of Lee Hoi Chang, and
the "radical" views of Roh.
FUTURE GOALS
Regarding our goal for North Korea: it is no longer enough for us to focus on just "getting them to the table." North Korea has so
managed to manipulate the situation that we (Americans and South Koreans alike) have been lulled into setting our standards of success
on just being able to meet with the North Koreans and getting them to talk.
That is not, and should not be, our goal.
Although getting them to the table is certainly a necessary step in our ultimate goal, we need to be wary of selling ourselves down the
river just to meet these intermediate steps. To echo the words of Dr. William Perry, the former U.S. Secretary of Defense who headed an
official review of U.S. policy toward North Korea, "we ought to deal with North Korea, not as we wish it to be, but as they are now."
This means a realistic and pragmatic policy as articulated by
the Bush Administration, in which we deal with North Korea on our terms, not on theirs.
--Balbina Hwang is Policy Analyst for Northeast Asia in the Asian
Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation. She delivered these remarks at a meeting of the Korea-U.S. Exchange Council in
Washington, D.C.