美國情報軍機，於迫降海南島之後，布希政府就逐漸進入美中關係“溫”與“冷”的考量。
美國認為這種常態性的偵查活動，過去一向無事，彼此亦心照不宣，現在受到中共的挑戰，其狀況頗不尋常；美國對中共在華府的間諜活動亦掌握許多的證據，為了維護雙方的穩定關係，會做許多的容忍工作，故往往對中共間諜在美國的活動，亦僅止於監視與警告，而不採取強列驅離出境的手段。
長久以來，中共對人民的掌控十分嚴密，連網路的交流，亦不放鬆，故所謂中美關係的冷熱，自然可以運用官方媒體來操控人民的情緒，這種情形在多元化的民主國家，很難以想像。
此次的兩機對撞事件，彼此各有堅持而藉此引發百姓的認知，亦是各說各話，中共挑動民氣，對美國的偵查行為亦不容情的加以熱炒，開放人民在網路上發飆，這種現象，透過電視轉播，亦激起美國、香港的華人興起一股民族共憤的熱場。這種不理智的媒體運用，在台灣多元化的自由媒體中，就無法激起共識，此亦是台灣人成熟的地方。台灣的民主化，使台灣人更能理性看待此事件。
茲不論中美雙方的情勢如何，台灣人應該認清楚一件事，台灣的民主必須以足以抗衡中共的武力來做後盾；中國民主化的過程，亦可在台灣與中共彼此的平等對話中滋長。
我在這裏講台灣與中共關係是強調中共與中國絕對不是等號，中國指的是中國人；與中共政權打交道，及與台灣向中國人打交道的方式與使命亦截然不一樣。中國建國史上最重要的一頁，就是孫中山先生推翻滿清政府的專制控制，中山先生的思想傳承，就在台灣真正民主化的過程得到見證，這種一心一意要全中國人民自己當家站起來的理想，亦是全中國人的最終期盼。
中共政權亦是延續專權掌控的帝王傳統，並未給中國人真正的自由、平等、博愛，其局限性的開放，到頭來會成為中國內鬥的隱憂，所謂不患寡而患不均，當前中國內部貧富差距，加上當權派坐擁開放之後的主要資源，如果無法逐步開放民主制度的實施與權力分享的目標，在
WTO 衝擊下，會有新貴勢力反撲的效果，種下惡鬥的爭權之戰。
台灣人不願看到中國再度陷入閥派之爭，而讓解放軍藉機取得絕對優勢，造成內鬥與攻台的不幸，台灣人對中國的投資，已經達四、五兆的高額，許多台灣菁英投入中國，開創中國人的商機與利潤，而回饋台灣的金額不足百分之一。台灣人的財富，在中國大陸的洪流中，越滾越深，此乃是台灣人大多天真的以為在中國是一種必然的趨向，未來的中共政權一定會講道理、重倫理，這種盲目認定的投資行為，顯然是台灣人習於民主方式與賭性堅強的原故。
2001.04.03／中央社記者鍾行憲華盛頓三日專電
美國蘭德公司指出，雖然在未來二十年不必擔心中共的科技潛力，美國必須準備面對與軍力逐漸精良的中共衝突的可能性，繼續嚴密監督中共的軍事研發計畫，以免在東亞執行戰鬥任務的能力受到威脅。
根據這個智庫日前發表的「中國商業科技的軍事潛能」研究報告，自一九七○年代末期展開改革計畫以來，中共的科技能力已大幅提升。
報告中說，整體而言，中共的商業科技仍然遠落在美國和其他先進國家之後。此一差距會在未來二十年進一步縮小，但是即使到二○二○年，中國大陸的平均科技水準仍將顯著落在美國和日本之後。
然而，這並不表示中共無法對美國構成嚴重的軍事挑戰。蘇聯在科技上相當落後並未遏阻它在冷戰期間對西方極具威脅性的軍事部署。
這一部分要歸功於莫斯科擁有數量龐大的軍隊，但是一部分也必須歸功於蘇聯精良的武器設計與相當有效的取得武器過程，以及蘇聯將高達國民生產毛額百分之二到百分之三的資源用於研究發展的結果。
對中共來說，此一比例的軍事研發支出將使其軍事支出增加大約一倍，也將對整個經濟和政府預算構成相當大的負擔。中共領導階層目前似乎不會採取這種作法。
但是蘭德公司指出，由於目前的軍事能力與美國太不對稱，中共可以發展會在特定情況下對美國軍方構成困難的「特殊」能力。例如，如果中共攻擊台灣而美國進行干預，中共將享有由中國大陸基地出發作戰的優勢。
美國勢必要由遠離本土的據點作戰，被迫將軍隊派駐台灣、附近的少數小島或海上，這都會限制美國可以部署的軍隊人數和武器系統種類。
此外，政治考慮或許也會限制美國可以針對中共進行的任務種類。在種種限制之下，擁有強大能力的少數特定系統就可讓中共享有軍事優勢。
報告中說，概括而言，中共軍方的科技能力不會在二○二○年以前趕上美國。儘管如此，包括空軍在內的美國軍方必須準備面對科技能力會繼續不斷提升的中共軍方。這不斷提升意味著中共會逐漸能夠生產相當現代化的武器系統，中共的能力或許也會在某些方面接近或是與美國並駕齊驅。
蘭德公司的結論是：「雖然不必擔心未來二十年中國的科技能力，美國必須準備面對與逐漸精良的中國軍方衝突的可能性，也必須繼續嚴密監督中國的研究發展努力，以偵測並且因應對美國在東亞執行戰鬥任務的能力構成特別威脅的任何計畫。」
以上報導可知，中共的思維，有其繼承的不變性存在，而台灣人的一廂情願，就顯得幼稚與過度浪漫。
請各位深入探討，最近美中的對峙，附上英文報導：
Sources:
Diplomats meeting with U.S. crew
April
3, 2001 Web posted at: 0:42 HKT (1642 GMT)
WASHINGTON
(CNN) -- U.S. diplomats were allowed to meet with the crew of a grounded
U.S. spy plane Tuesday for the first time since it landed in China.
The meeting
began about 11:35 p.m. in the Chinese city of Haikou (11:35 a.m. EDT),
State Department officials said. It was not yet clear whether the meeting
would result in the crew's release after more than two days on the Chinese
island of Hainan.
Their
EP-3 Aries II made an emergency landing on Hainan on Sunday after colliding
with a Chinese jet fighter that was shadowing it over the South China
Sea. The Chinese pilot ditched his plane and was still missing Tuesday.
The Pentagon
has warned China that the plane, which is packed with sophisticated
electronic surveillance equipment, is sovereign territory that should
not be boarded by Chinese troops. But Pentagon officials said Tuesday
that Chinese troops have boarded the plane and were taking equipment.
Chinese officials
repeated their argument Tuesday that the United States is to blame for
the incident.
Chinese President
Jiang Zemin demanded U.S. officials accept full responsibility for the
collision and halt all surveillance flights near China's coast. The
United States must "bear full responsibility" for the incident, the
official Xinhua news agency quoted him as saying.
The
U.S. says the collision was an accident and the plane was on a routine
surveillance mission in international air space. Bush administration
officials said Tuesday they have no plans to apologize and downplayed
Beijing's call for an apology.
Reports from
Chinese sources indicated the U.S. crew was taken off the plane and
separated. A Chinese source told CNN they were being held individually,
but did not say where or under what conditions.
U.S. President
George W. Bush demanded the prompt return of the plane on Monday, but
there was no indication that the crew, which includes three women, would
be handed over to the visiting diplomats.
While U.S.
officials have complained that China is slow in responding to diplomatic
contacts, it's not unusual for China's bureaucratic system to take a
long time to make decisions, especially where the military or national
security concerns are involved.
Bush offered
Monday to help the Chinese search for the missing fighter pilot, but
China rejected that offer: Three U.S. warships that had been traveling
to the collision site were leaving the South China Sea on Tuesday.
No
ordinary plane, China says
Meanwhile,
Prueher said there was "little doubt" that the Chinese have been aboard
the damaged Aries.
"We
are sure that the crew is not on the airplane, and we have every reason
to think that the Chinese have been all over the airplane," Prueher
said.
A Pentagon
official said Monday that the crew started to destroy sensitive equipment
before the plane landed in Chinese territory, but the official did not
know how much was dismantled.
China has
rejected U.S. claims that the Aries is sovereign territory.
"The plane
we're talking about is not an ordinary aircraft, but a military reconnaissance
plane that operated against rules and rammed a Chinese plane in the
air space above the sea near China, then entered Chinese air space without
China's permission and landed on a Chinese airport," a foreign ministry
spokesman said.
"According
to relevant Chinese laws and international law, China has the complete
right to investigate this incident. It's the right that belongs to any
sovereign nation," he added.
Incident
comes at difficult time
The
collision comes at a sensitive time for U.S.-China relations. Hard-liners
in both countries are urging their governments to take a tougher line
toward each other. The Bush administration is trying to redefine the
relationship between China and the United States from that of a "strategic
partner" to a "strategic competitor." Since taking office in January,
Bush has toughened the U.S. policy toward China on human rights and
religious freedom.
The administration
also is considering whether to sell destroyers equipped with the advanced
Aegis air defense radar system to Taiwan, which Beijing considers a
renegade province.
In addition,
a senior Chinese army officer recently defected to the United States,
and Beijing is holding two U.S. scholars -- one a Chinese-born U.S.
citizen detained on unspecified charges, another a U.S. resident accused
of spying.
Officials
from both countries say interceptions like the one that occurred off
Hainan on Sunday -- Saturday night, in Washington -- are routine. But
collisions are not.
Jiang
wants surveillance flights stopped
In a statement
carried by China's official Xinhua news service, Jiang said he "cannot
understand" why U.S. surveillance flights come so close to Chinese territory.
"This
time, in violation of international law and practice, the U.S. plane
bumped into our plane, invaded Chinese territorial air space and landed
at our airport," Jiang said.
China says
the American pilot caused the crash by suddenly veering into the Chinese
jet, one of two sent up to follow the plane. But U.S. military authorities
say it was more likely that the faster, lighter Chinese jet brushed
against the slower, propeller-driven spy plane.
A U.S. official
told CNN events leading into Tuesday evening Washington time -- Wednesday
morning in Beijing -- would be critical in determining whether the standoff
would cause any lasting damage to U.S.-China relations.
"Our people
need to see the crew and need to see them soon," the official, speaking
on condition of anonymity, said.
美國軍機在公海中的偵察，居然會被撞擊，而中共不斷侵入他國領空做示威（以台灣為最多次），似乎成為常態，何以到現在無他國敢加以反擊，真是怪哉！
