中共與俄國皆是依靠美國的支持，才成為經濟改革的大國，而中共更借力使力，運用與美國建交之便，開始於國際舞台引爆中國的經濟熱，如果美國又容忍中共成為威脅亞太的超強軍事大國，美國必然會輸掉全盤。

　　台灣交給美國管理保護，絕對比此時的中共好太多，因為民主國家可容許的惡行，可以相信民意與人權的要求得到改善，而中共成為霸主之後，只有自求多福了，到時後“老人”說一句，各屬國只有聽話的份。自古中華封建文明，就是為政者作威作福，不懂得如何保障民權、尊重民意，而皆是以鞏固政權做為最高指導原則。

　　由中共自行決定台灣為其一省，而不理會台灣人的反應，又時時恐嚇他國不得與台灣交往，封殺台灣外交空間的舉動看來，中共的政治思想，還處於幼稚的階段。

　　今日之台灣之所以積弱，就是台灣人的自立性覺悟不足，在五十年中華奴化教育的影響，台灣人傳承到“中土第一”的負面效果，故凡是有人喊“台灣第一”，就被某些自命中土的什麼人士聲討作對，咬文嚼字一番，加以打壓。所以說打壓台灣民主化，打壓台灣四佰年的獨立精神的人，絕非共產黨員，而是奴化的台灣人。

　　在老蔣時代，依附所謂反覆大陸河山的雄志，大聲“反共還加上抗俄”主題明顯，結果美國人對蔣軍十分配合，中共亦不敢大聲放話，壓榨台灣外交空間，台灣有時時準備反攻大陸的盤算，故中共在隔岸反而產生敬畏之心，到現在還希望國共談判。

　　那知道，到了民主台灣時代，台灣人自以為偉大，各有主張，無法認清中共的攻台危機，形成一片片好共流行，台灣民主人士孤掌難以撐天，或不搞急獨，其聲浪總是難擋急統人士炒出來的大熱門。

　　台灣人必須支持布希的明確保台聲明，與全球聯盟的飛彈防禦系統，台灣除了買安全，亦要買與中共對等談判的籌碼，大家應該知道，凡民主國家的媒體提到台灣時，皆會加一句「民主國家」的雅號（Democratic Taiwan）以區隔共產國家Communist China，這是為什麼？此乃台灣人民主成就得到普世讚揚。

　　現在中共要拉攏蘇俄，其最成功之處在於購買俄製武器，至於成為聯盟，則...，看以下報導。

2001.04.30／中時即時快報宋秉忠台北報導

即使中美開戰 俄羅斯未必出兵援中共

　　莫斯科昨天剛證實中俄即將簽訂和平友好條約，立場保守的「華盛頓時報」今天就批露，俄羅斯曾於二月舉行大規模演習，模擬介入中美在台海的衝突，俄軍甚至還模擬以核彈威脅美軍。雖然和平友好條約內容目前仍未曝光，但雙方從戰略考量出發，預料不可能再次形成攻守同盟。

　　去年七月，中共網站曾傳出，俄羅斯總統普丁在五國會議中表示，一旦美軍入台海戰事，俄羅斯太平洋艦隊將協助中共對抗美國第七艦隊，但俄羅斯駐美大使館新聞參贊沙拉林隨即向「美國之音」否認有關傳聞。他強調，出兵助中共對抗美國的說法，與俄羅斯政府避免使用武力解決國際糾紛的一貫主張，背道而馳。

　　至於俄羅斯太平洋艦隊，去年有半年未發薪水，冬天沒有暖氣，沒有沒有足夠的材料，因此無法演習，而且，最近十年裡，幾乎沒增加一艘新軍艦，根本沒有與第七艦隊一搏的實力。

　　就在今天普丁與唐家璇會晤、具體安排和平友好條約前夕，俄羅斯國安部卻對外宣布，擔任中共間諜的俄國太空科技專家涉及「嚴重叛國罪」；在大量向中共輸出高科技武器的同時，又逮捕並曝光中共間諜，顯見普丁與中共打交道過程中的謹慎。

　　相對的，在向俄羅斯大量採購武器的同時，中共也尋求其他軍購管道。四月十八日，中共總裝備部長曹剛川即率團訪問烏克蘭，參觀該國的長程飛彈、海陸基發射的衛星運載火箭、坦克、火炮、航空電子及雷達工廠，顯示中共極力想避免過度依賴俄羅斯武器。

　　即使九七年四月，中共與俄羅斯等四國簽定了邊境裁軍協定，但這份被視為中俄總結歷史問題的協定實質，據時任俄羅斯副外長的卡拉辛透露：首先，在邊界兩側各一百公里的範圍內，原先駐紮的邊防軍仍然繼續駐守，而不是形成非軍事區，俄羅斯的遠東集團軍戰力並未下降；其次，戰略飛彈部隊、遠程航空兵、海軍及防空兵，都未列入協議範圍。

　　為了消除西方特別是美國的疑慮，卡拉辛還曾強調，俄羅斯不會與中共結成「戰略聯盟」，因為這將危及雙方與美國及西方國家的現行關係。他說，與西方接觸，對於中共及俄國的國家利益都具有重要意義。

　　冷戰後，中共總結過去聯蘇、聯美的教訓，已放棄「一面倒」戰略，改採「獨立自主」路線。中共外交部在檢討自改革開放以來外交政策的書籍即明確指出，五十年代的聯俄抗美和七十年代的聯美抗俄政策，雖然都出自於當時對國際戰略的考量，但隨著八十年代美蘇關係由對抗轉向僵持後，如果再採取一面倒的外交政策，不僅已無必要，而且對中國不利；中國如果和美俄任何一方結盟或建立戰略關係，都會影響世界戰略力量平衡，不利於國際形勢穩定。

　　在國際戰略和國家利益的考量下，中俄軍事同盟已註定成絕響。

 

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　　美國要建立ABM系統，在於減少核武對立，增加聯防能力，對不按牌理出牌的流氓國家，才是美國與其盟邦的最大隱憂，中共卻是扮演此等流氓國家的幕後推手。看英文報導：

 

Bush Calls for Replacing ABM Treaty

May 1, 2001 ---
Washington (Reuters) - President Bush on Tuesday called for replacing the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty, a bedrock of U.S.-Russian nuclear stability for three decades, to allow deployment of a missile defense system strongly opposed by Moscow and Beijing.

He said he planned to make unilateral nuclear arms cuts in what amounted to a sweetener for financially strapped Russia, which is struggling to afford the upkeep of its nuclear arms.

"This treaty does not recognize the present or point us to the future. It enshrines the past," Bush said, as the prepared to launch a high-profile effort to consult on the ABM treaty with wary U.S. allies and Russia and China.

Bush, in a major speech to a military audience at Fort McNair, said the 1972 ABM treaty between the United States and Russia needs to be replaced to permit a missile system that would protect the United States and its allies from attack from what Washington calls rogue nations or from accidental launches.

The ABM treaty was created just to prevent such a defense system during the Cold War when Washington and Moscow settled on an approach of "mutually assured destruction." A missile defense was forbidden because it could give one side or the other the ability for a potentially devastating first strike.

Addressing the topic for the first time at length since taking office Jan. 20, Bush said the treaty ignored technological breakthroughs of the past 30 years and prohibited the United States from exploring options to defend itself against threats facing America and its allies.

Work With Russia

"That's why we should work together (with Russia) to replace this treaty with a new framework, that reflects a clear and clean break from the past, and especially from the adversarial legacy of the Cold War," he said.

The president offered no specifics about his missile defense plans, saying they were still being worked out, and no indication of the cost or timetable for building a system.

Bush, who spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier in the day to brief him on his speech, directed much of his remarks to Moscow, the most vociferous opponent of the bold U.S. plan for a system to intercept and destroy incoming missiles from countries like Iraq-Iran and North Korea.

In what sounded like an incentive for Russia to go along with replacing the ABM treaty, Bush said in his speech he planned to make unilateral cuts in nuclear weapons in a way that "reflects the reality that the Cold War is over."

"I'm committed to achieving a credible deterrent with the lowest possible number of nuclear weapons consistent with our national needs, including our obligation to our allies. My goal is to move quickly to reduce nuclear forces. The United States will lead by example to achieve our interests," he said.

The United States has 7,295 deployed warheads compared to Russia's 6094. Russia has been looking for big cuts, while the Bush administration has been discussing making unilateral cuts down to 1,500 nuclear warheads.

New Nuclear Thinking

A senior .S. official said Bush was not offering to make nuclear reductions in exchange for Russia dropping its opposition to ABM changes but was seeking support for a "new framework" of security with limited defenses and lower levels of offensive forces.

"It's not an offer to the Russians ... It's really an entirely new way of thinking about the nuclear environment," the official said in a telephone interview.

In Moscow, Interfax news agency reported high-level sources welcomed Bush's remarks on nuclear arms cuts but warned against changing the ABM pact.

"Many in Washington understand that the destruction of ABM and deploying an anti-missile shield could undermine the system of strategic stability which exists in the world today and lead to a new arms race," Interfax quoted the sources as saying.

At home, Democrats questioned the high price tag of the missile defense system and its feasibility. In early tests the technology - missile interceptors homing in and destroying a fast-moving target - has not proved successful.

"We fear that the president may be buying a lemon here. I don't know how you support the deployment of a program that doesn't work," said Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota.

Stung by criticism that he did not consult with allies before dropping the Kyoto global climate change treaty, Bush is making a big effort to consult on the missile defense.

He outlined his plan to leaders of Britain, Canada, France and Germany on Monday and to the new prime minister of Japan, Junichiro Koizumi, last Friday.

In Brussels, NATO Secretary-General George Robertson welcomed Bush's arms speech. "The president is right to focus on these new challenges, and I welcome his commitment to close consultation with the allies," he said in a statement.

High Level Envoys

The president is dispatching three former campaign aides - Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, Deputy White House National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley and Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz - overseas to explain U.S. views and seek support.

"The president really wants to know what people think," said a senior U.S. official familiar with his thinking. "He has made clear he is not making a unilateral decision, kind of 'take it or leave it." He wants to hear options."

Missile defense critics were quick to react.

"U.S. national missile defense deployment would prod Russia into keeping a larger number of its strategic weapons on hair-trigger alert, thus perpetuating the dangerous nuclear standoff and risk of accidental nuclear war," said Stephen Young of the Union of Concerned Scientists.

　　而中文簡譯為如此說：

2001.05.10／蕃薯藤新聞

布希宣示部署飛彈防禦系統 象徵限武世紀結束

　　（法新社華盛頓一日電）美國總統布希發表演說表示將部署全國飛彈防禦系統，為核子武器管制世紀劃下句點，象徵著全面飛彈防禦競賽將開始擺脫一九七二年反彈道飛彈條約的束縛。

　　美國提議在一個新的安全架構上與俄羅斯和美國盟邦合作。布希甚至直言不諱地宣稱美國應超脫反彈道飛彈條約。

　　明文禁止部署全國飛彈防禦系統的一九七二年反彈道飛彈條約過去進三十年以來維繫了美俄之間的核子和平。

　　前美國副總統高爾的國會安全顧問佛斯就警告說，放棄反彈道飛彈條約「對於破壞武器管制以及裁減和限制核子武器架構，將造成非常實質的後果」。

　　他說：「其交換的結果可能是行不通或是可能超過我們的實際需要。」但布希和他的策士已斷定當今最迫切的威脅不是來自俄羅斯的龐大火藥庫，而是來自亟思取得大規模毀滅性和飛彈的「流氓國家」。