Shen Hsi-hsiang sips a
McDonald's soft drink outside the "New York, New York" shopping
mall in Taipei and waxes enthusiastic about the value of US friendship.
If Taiwan ever came to
blows with mainland China, its only hope would lie in support from
Washington, says Mr Shen, 68, a veteran of the Nationalist armies
that were chased into exile on the island by Mao Zedong's victorious
Communists in 1949.
"The US has always
helped us in the past and I believe they would try to help us again,"
he says.
For all Mr Shen's faith,
however, many in Taiwan harbour deep doubts about whether the US would
really be willing to take on Beijing in the island's defence.
Such doubts linger even
after the double reassurance provided by Washington last week in the
form of the most impressive US arms sales offer in nearly a decade
and an unprecedently forthright promise of support from George W.
Bush, US president.
Asked
in an interview if the US had an obligation to defend the Taiwanese
against attack by China, Mr Bush said: "Yes, we do" and
that Washington would do "whatever it took" to help the
island defend itself.
That sounded like a firm
commitment of military support for Taiwan and an end to the "strategic
ambiguity" with which Washington has tried to convince Beijing
that any attack on Taiwan would risk war, while making clear to Taipei
that US backing is not assured.
Mr Bush's remarks were
greeted with widespread enthusiasm in Taiwan but few read them to
mean that full US support can be taken for granted.
"I don't think the
US would send troops at all," says Yen Chen-shen, an expert in
US policy at Taipei's Institute of International Relations. "When
Bush says 'whatever it takes' I don't think its going to be troops
- maybe logistics or air support."
No one questions that
Washington has been the greatest ally of Taiwan's Republic of China
government. The Nationalists would probably not have made it to the
island without US help. US warships averted a Communist invasion in
the 1950s and Taiwan's subsequent economic development was fuelled
by US assistance. Even since it cut diplomatic ties in 1979, Washington's
willingness to offer Taipei arms and international support has contrasted
sharply with European reluctance to rile Beijing.
But many in Taiwan fear
that the island is just a bargaining chip in the more important relationship
between the world's most powerful nation and its most populous.
Such doubts are underlined
by later comments by Mr Bush that military support for Taiwan was
just "one option" and by his administration's insistence
that its basic policy has not changed.
Continuing ambiguity will
be welcomed by those who believe that keeping both sides guessing
about US intentions is the best way to maintain stability in the Taiwan
Strait.
Certainly, although Mr
Bush's recent actions are undoubtedly a boost for Chen Shui-bian,
Taiwan's president, there seems little chance they will prompt any
attempt to formalise the island's de facto independence. Mr Chen put
aside pro-independence rhetoric even before his election last year
and has since worked hard to avoid antagonising Beijing.
Indeed, for many strategists
the most pressing question is not whether the US would be willing
to fight for Taiwan but whether the island would be ready to fight
for itself.
Divided loyalties and
the overseas bank accounts and US passports of much of Taiwan's elite
added to a general lack of popular martial ardour, which makes some
military planners fear morale could crumble in the face of a mainland
missile attack or blockade.
