2001.05.10／蕃薯藤新聞

　　著名軍事小說家查克迪莫今天到台灣訪問，對於台海軍事有深刻觀察的他認為，布希總統上台之後的對台政策，有明顯的改變，美國不再維持過去的模糊政策，而是要把話說清楚，以免中國誤判，造成嚴重後果。第一本以台海軍事衝突為背景的軍事小說，台海戰爭最前線的作者，查克迪莫到台灣訪問，曾經在美國國防部任職的他認為，今年度台美軍售的重大突破，可以看出美國的全球戰略，有很大的改變在布希總統眼中，亞太地區的重要性，已經超過了歐洲，而台海又是亞太地區最敏感的地區之一，因此布希政府認為有必要更積極的防止戰爭的發生，所以布希明白的說出了防衛台灣的字眼，查克也認為除了軍事的力量之外，台灣還有一項優勢，就是自由民主體制的成就，而這一點會是爭取國際支持的有利武器。

 

　　美國的歐洲政策逐漸鬆動，因為歐洲的自主性越來越強，美國人的那一套常不管用，何況蘇聯解體之後，西歐各國已經有自己的思想行為方式，故預測到未來的防線必須移轉到亞洲地區，風水輪流轉，亞洲的新霸主－中國，已經影響到亞太的軍力均衡，台灣的地位日趨重要，而日本、韓國的駐軍亦得加強，布希政府把全球安全防衛的中心放在日本，有他的戰略考量。

　　根據 CNN May 9, 2001 的報導，台灣地位無可取代，但是中台之間的敏感度太高，美軍駐台必有新的衝突，故守住日本成為重點。南韓與北韓關係曖昧，雙方若即若離，南韓又常有反美風潮，故美國考慮再三，以日本為跳板，並加緊海上流動長城（大型艦隊）的機動力，以克服中共、北韓所引發的危機，並適時給予盟邦的支援，美國自從潛艦撞沉日本實習船事件與駐日美軍強暴事件之後，極力整頓軍紀，獲得74% 的日本人還是支持美軍駐日的防衛行為。

　　且參考英文稿：

Japan to become U.S. centre for global security

[LatelineNews: 2001-5-9] YOKOTA, Japan - Japan will become the centre of the United States' new global security strategy as Washington shifts its focus to Asia from post-Cold War Europe, the commander of U.S. military forces in Japan said.
The United States has been reviewing its military priority and programmes since the new administration under President George W. Bush came to power in January.

U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who is to meet Bush later this week to seek final approval of the plans, has outlined a broad shift from planning for a major war in Europe -- which dominated defence thinking before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 -- towards more emphasis on Asia.

"I think that means that Japan becomes, as we have often said, the very centre of the security apparatus in the Asia-Pacific region," Lieutenant General Paul Hester, the top commander of U.S. Forces in Japan, told Reuters in an interview this week.

He added that did not necessarily entail changing the nature or scale of the U.S. troop presence in Japan.

"Japan's geographic position provides a wonderful opportunity to carry out that shared vision," Hester said, referring to the U.S.-Japan security agreement which aims to provide protection to Japan as well as the greater Asian region.

Senior U.S. officials have said Bush has agreed with the thrust of Rumsfeld's stress on China's growing military as well as the emphasis on Asia as a key region in adapting to the post-Cold War challenges.

Tokyo has been forthcoming in its willingness to strengthen ties with Washington. In 1999, Japan enacted new defence guidelines drawn up by the two countries authorising Japan to provide logistical support to the U.S. military in the event of an emergency in the region.

The agreement to boost their military alliance to its highest level since the end of World War Two set off fears in China that the stronger ties were aimed at protecting Taiwan in the event of Chinese military action against the island, which it regards as a renegade province.

The cooperative mood is likely to continue, with new Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi saying the U.S.-Japan alliance is the bedrock of Tokyo's diplomatic and security policy. Local newspapers on Wednesday said he plans to fly to Washington for his first state visit to demonstrate that stance.

However, heightened U.S. military involvement could encounter strong opposition from the Japanese public after a collision in February between a U.S. nuclear submarine and a Japanese training trawler left nine Japanese dead.

"Was there, is there still a tension associated with the submarine accident with Ehime-maru (trawler)? Absolutely, and it should raise national tension when we have such a tragic accident as that," Hester said.

Public support for U.S. troops in Japan was already frayed by a series of crimes by American military personnel on the southern Japanese island of Okinawa, which sparked growing calls for a reduction in the number of troops on the island.

A newspaper survey last week showed that while 74 percent of Japanese voters want to maintain the U.S. security pact, nearly two-thirds want to see a gradual reduction of the American military presence on Okinawa.

Of the 48,000 U.S. military personnel stationed in Japan, the tiny tropical island is home to 25,000 U.S. troops -- just over a quarter of the total U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific.

Hester said that although he understood calls by local politicians for a reduction in the U.S. presence, it was an issue to be discussed at the top levels.

"Calls are appropriate. Local politicians are representing citizens just as they are elected to do." he said.

"But that (the issue of the removal of U.S. troops from Okinawa) is a question to be discussed between the government of Japan and the government of the United States."

A strong backlash against the U.S. military in Japan erupted in 1995, when a 12-year-old girl in Okinawa was raped by three U.S. servicemen.

Hester said he hoped to be "good neighbours with Japan" and programmes aimed at preventing further crimes were being conducted especially for young U.S. servicemen on Okinawa.

"We are guests in this great host country. We must work to be good neighbours."

　　

　　台灣不可放鬆自我警惕的心防，在無法保障中共不以武力犯台的前題，此種事不可行。

2001.05.10／自由電子報記者吳明杰台北報導

　　昨天在一場「台海戰爭最前線」新書發表會中，多位立委、學者專家指目前中共對台仍積極進行統戰，在沒有政治互信和溝通管道制度化前，退役將領組團前往中國大陸訪問的行為，將打擊國軍官兵的士氣，並產生對國家認知的混淆。

　　軍事評論家蘇進強昨天表示，就他日前到大陸訪問與解放軍研究單位接觸的經驗，中共軍方對於對台運用戰爭恐怖主義的成效非常得意，台灣在心防上一定要加強。 同時，他質疑退役將領集體性和政治性赴大陸進行交流的目的，恐怕會讓國軍產生認同上的混淆，特別是由新黨立委馮滬祥帶領，對這些退役將領的形象恐怕會有影響。

　　民進黨立委蔡明憲也指出，兩岸建立軍事互信機制的確是有必要建立，但目前在兩岸溝通管道還沒制度化之前，退役將領貿然集體前往大陸訪問，恐怕會影響軍心士氣。

　　由曾任雷根政府時期美國國防部外交特別助理的作者恰克．狄沃爾（Chuck DeVore）所著新書「台海戰爭最前線」昨天在台發表，內容假想中共攻台會先秘密對台生物戰、施放病毒讓眾多軍公教人員生病和癱瘓半數以上國軍戰力，接著採欺敵方式，由一班載滿解放軍的民航客機降落並控制中正機場等奇襲戰術，書以小說體描述中共採超限戰攻台。

　　民進黨立委張旭成說，這本書分析中共解放軍對台的用兵模式，意涵發人深思，內容不無有提醒美國及台灣決策者的參考價值，政府兩岸政策是否宜一味擴大交往、漠視敵人的威脅、甚至對敵人掉以輕心，值得思量。

　　狄沃爾昨天出席新書發表會時表示，民主國家有時看起來似乎軟弱，讓共產國家自認有機會對鄰近國家實施侵略或民族主義的機會，但經全面性了解後就會知道，民主國家一定比極權主義國家好許多，他相信，台灣最大的資產是自由民主，除對共產黨是一顆不定時炸彈外，更是大陸共產統治下人民的一盞燈塔。

　　新書「台海戰爭最前線」，以小說體表現模擬分析中共解放軍攻台的種種可能，解放軍先以生物戰癱瘓國軍戰力，緊接著對台灣南、北一百英里高空處發射帶核子彈頭的飛彈，藉釋放的電磁脈衝破壞直徑兩百英里範圍內的電力、電腦、電子儀器和雷達設備等，包括國軍在內的先進指管系統都將癱瘓，迅速瓦解台灣海空軍防禦力量。